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Tracking the potential Polar Low - Thursday into Friday


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Posted
  • Location: Border of N.Yorks / W.Yorks / Lancashire - 350m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but Rain!
  • Location: Border of N.Yorks / W.Yorks / Lancashire - 350m asl

Sat Infra red is showing a worrying development, the northern flank has lost definition, and seems to be disintegrating. Was perfect swirl and now its just a mess on the northern side.

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Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)

Can't see it hitting Yorkshire, personally i think the west midlands will see all the snow.

I think his post might have been a little tongue in cheek.

Especially the prediction of 2-3 feet of snow!

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

no the low will go east of hampshire and give ten foot of snow to Peterborough

Naa! We are actually a snow shield believe it or not. The city can sometimes see barely anything but when you go literally 10 miles north into Lincolnshire, they always seem to get tonnes of it.

Don't know what it is, but it happens so many times!

I think you are actually in a favoured area for this tbh mate.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

Very good estimate , puts mids , East wales , and maybe Oxford in firing line , exactly my predicted path '')

Is everyone too scared to give an estimation ?

nope..........6ft through all of england, and I'm a rampaholic  :drunk:

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

We are certainly starting to see it decay now as it encounters land.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

We are certainly starting to see it decay now as it encounters land.

This is where the Irish Sea MAY actually be beneficial.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

It is weakening and it has been elongating for a little while now looking at the radar. Still the models never were forecasting that strong of a system, moderate snowfall seems most likely, hence why the idea of 1-3cms for most in the track was always about right, maybe a small area of 5cms, but it will be a tight line right along the core of the system.

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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

post-9095-0-55938100-1422573023_thumb.pn

Iv noticed that once it hits land its intensifying. Infact over the years iv noticed quite often a front is over sea and it almost disappears . Then once it hits land it regroups . We can see this over northwest England and Wales . Think this can be a very good event tbh

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

It is weakening and it has been elongating for a little while now looking at the radar. Still the models never were forecasting that strong of a system, moderate snowfall seems most likely, hence why the idea of 1-3cms for most in the track was always about right, maybe a small area of 5cms, but it will be a tight line right along the core of the system.

Could be due to the drier air engaging with it. I expect more precip to be generated over the core of the Irish Sea.

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Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham

We are certainly starting to see it decay now as it encounters land.

And tracking further west atm along / off the east coast of Ireland Nick ??

Edited by Biggin
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

Euro 4 at 3am suggests snow for Wales, the band across NW England will move SE into E Midlands.

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/29/basis18/ukuk/prec/15013003_2918.gif

 

 

Looks like the band across NW England/E Midlands will be snow, rain for Wales, SW.

Edited by TEITS
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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

18z UKMO (meso) only really showing loosely organised bands of snow showers wrapped around this low as it tracks across the Midlands by 3am and eventually the SE of England by 6am ... so could be hit and miss with accumulations, some areas getting 2-5cm, while others barely a dusting or nada.

 

18z EURO4 similar in track to 18z UKMO:

 

post-1052-0-49102300-1422573521_thumb.gi

 

post-1052-0-11006900-1422573644_thumb.gi

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

attachicon.gifScreenshot_2015-01-29-23-08-01.png

Iv noticed that once it hits land its intensifying. Infact over the years iv noticed quite often a front is over sea and it almost disappears . Then once it hits land it regroups . We can see this over northwest England and Wales . Think this can be a very good event tbh

 

I suspect the western upslope of the Pennines for NW England and Welsh mountains helping pep up those bands of showers as they move inland.

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Posted
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL

all seems to be going east atm. A nice strong band heading for west and south yorkshire shortly!

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

The band across NW England stretching into N Midlands is what interests me as this is expanding all the time.

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Posted
  • Location: Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, warmth, and thunder.
  • Location: Warwickshire

Yikes! I really want to see this snow, but I see myself being extremely tired tomorrow morning - hopefully caffeine will wake me up  :bad: , or it could snow loads and I won't have to get up!  :yahoo:

... Its tempted to get warmer though  :nonono:

Edited by Cumulonimbus123
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Posted
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, very cold (inc. anticyclonic) weather
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk

The band across NW England stretching into N Midlands is what interests me as this is expanding all the time.

 

Same here TEITS. It gaining in size and intensity slowly. it also looks on a course to pass in a line roughly through Peterborough, Ely, and out through Suffolk.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

23z analysis:

 

post-1052-0-53982200-1422575120_thumb.jp

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