Tracking the potential Polar Low - Thursday into Friday

[South coaster]

Met office radar tracking is straight over the top of southcoast if there's any life left in it will it be rain will it be snow ????

[Mark Neal.]

"much closer to the mark"

 

We don't know where the "mark" is, that's kinda the point

I'm here !! lol...

 

GFS 18Z.. 1am Fri-

[Nick F]

Its a grand question, I think it looks like a Polar low, its in marginal conditions for them to form but the source is good for it and the structure is great.

 

With that being said, it kind of reminds me of the Jan 2010 low when it was near the south coast, especially on the radar and that was a similar low that formed in a broader cylconic flow from the north/north-west.

 

Won't be as much though as its more convective rather than frontal in nature like that one was.

 

Carinthian, in the no camp, posted earlier and makes some good points re: upper temps not being really supportive for PL development: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82413-tracking-the-potential-polar-low-thursday-into-friday/?p=3149517

 

This article's a good read and there are many parameters that don't fit: http://www.uni-trier.de/index.php?id=28161

 

However, other articles and papers have different parameters on what maketh a polar low, so open to some interpretation or mis-interpretation!

[Midlands Ice Age]

A lot of IMBY posts on here.

 

Not me....I know where it will be and when...

 

At 04:15 it will  be straight over Solihull, having visited LLandudno on the way down  (for a refuel, its always bloody cold there) and then go out over Southampton at 07:30 hitching a lift with a cruise ship and bumping into a car-transporter container ship on its way down the Solent.

 

There no NIMBYism there then!

 

MIA

 

         .

 

Edit - Dam I meant 03:15 as it has speeded up in the last hour

Edited January 29, 2015 by Midlands Ice Age

[Duane S.]

This debate does have some legs.... But I've never seen a ' true' Polar Low come in off a North Westerly flow? A true Northerly flow then yes.

I posted a few days back that the formation of a polar bear could be a possibility but that was for later on this weekend when we pick up a true Northerly, to get one form in a north west flow makes me doubt whether it can be one in its true sense.

That said, it doesn't stop it being of great interest as it makes it way South and East!

Edit: polar LOW, not bear, that was Lorenzo's fault for that posting that amusing picture earlier!

Edited January 29, 2015 by s4lancia

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Isn't the low itself still over Northern Ireland with only an area of precipitation to the East of the low shortly to make landfall in Cumbria?

[chionomaniac]

I saved it as an AVI, check post 274 of this thread

Brilliant, thanks - can you do another tomorrow morning please if possible?

[Mark Neal.]

GFS 18Z for-

Fri 4am & Fri 7am.

 

[Nick F]

Just had a peak at the 18z UKMO (meso) and it shows the centre of the small low moving SE across the Midlands around 3am then across SE England around 6am, sleet/snow showers swirling around this low for Wales, Midlands, SE England.

[snowy36]

I'm not calling it a polar low any more but i'm renaming it - J-Lo after  Jo's competition.

[i luv snow]

The GFS 18x ppn charts seem to suggest the ppn will turn to snow as it move in... I'm not so sure right now tho, but certainly hope so!

Edited January 29, 2015 by i luv snow

[sconetone]

You mean I gotta wait till 3am to see if it gets here?


Not sure my F5 button will survive that long..

[kold weather]

Just a few hints that the low is starting to elongate a little on the radar as the models suggested that it would, probably starting to weaken a little, though that won't impact on precip just yet I'd have thought.

[Snowman.]

Time to set an alarm for 3!

[cowdog]

Isn't the low itself still over Northern Ireland with only an area of precipitation to the East of the low shortly to make landfall in Cumbria?

 

Its currently in between Northern Ireland and Scotland. Its all guess work how far the precipitation will go, once it makes English land fall.

[LadyEv06]

You mean I gotta wait till 3am to see if it gets here?

Not sure my F5 button will survive that long..

 

I'm feeling impatient too fellow local lol! 

[Daniel*]

Don't believe this is a polar low for one minute, and as it currently stands unless you live above 250m (even then it will be a slushy mess) expect rain.

I had some moderate snow, courtesy of showers not so long ago at 7m ASL, being in the UHI.

[pyrotech]

The precipitation turns wintry quickly over Northern Ireland

The first Precipitation is now over the Irish sea where it gets thermal warmth.

This should help increase the intensity as it reaches the West Wales Coast

 

Currently showers in front of it have turned readily to snow as they moved just a few miles inland over Wales.

Cool air over Ireland will have mixed in somewhat so we now will soon have a better idea of what this will do.

If this turns to Sleet and snow fairly quickly over Wales this gives many areas a chance tonight.

Next hour will iron out how much the cold air mixes with the less cold warm sector.

 

From whats happened so far i would suggest Met office called this right, but we are approaching a crucial point .

If Met office are right expect it to become snow around Brecon - Newtown line thru Wales, if earlier then its more widespread.

This has a knock on effect further South and East but in the South i suspect best that can be hoped for is 50mile further South for wintry precipitation. Any reports on wind speed increasing and further Sferics

[gregior]

Will it intensify as it crosses the Irish sea?

[sconetone]

I'm feeling impatient too fellow local lol! 

 

Was a cracking bit of snow at lunchtime eh?

But yeah - would love for this Polar Low to come our way, yup I'm greedy lol

[pyrotech]

Just to add that the North west quarter seems now to be turning more readily to snow as the embedded cold air gets wrapped around.

Certainly more interesting to watch than whats on TV tonight

[Midlands Ice Age]

Just noticed on Meteo 24 radar that the precipitation has just turned to sleet from rain over a large area of south east Ireland as the low moves towards Dublin and Belfast. Could the same thing happen over Wales later on? 

 

in which case it would end up as snow over quite a large area in England.

 

MIA

 

Edit - I see Pyrotech beat me to it.

Edited January 29, 2015 by Midlands Ice Age

[Yarmy]

Right, so I'm driving from Norfolk to Nottingham tomorrow at 6am tomorrow. Hmm...

[Nick L]

Remember that precip type radars depend on model data, it is not necessarily representative of what's actually happening.

[pyrotech]

Will it intensify as it crosses the Irish sea?

Yes, heat from the sea will intensify it so as it hits the cold air the warm air that will then hold more water vapour will condense making it more intense again as it heads in land, for a time. After land fall it will have much less fuel and should slowly die off, but such a feature will last much longer than shouts that would peter out over 100 mile