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Tracking the potential Polar Low - Thursday into Friday

Met4Cast

By Met4Cast
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Cymro Community Regular

Cymro

Posted
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
Posted

Don't believe this is a polar low for one minute, and as it currently stands unless you live above 250m (even then it will be a slushy mess) expect rain.

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Polar Bear Community Regular

Polar Bear

Posted
  • Location: Newbury
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and snow but not together
  • Location: Newbury
Posted

I've heard it has dragged milder air over Ireland bringing rain ... is it game over or still too early to tell?

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Jo Farrow Veteran

Jo Farrow

Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian
Posted

How likely is this to hit lowlands of central Scotland? Any opinions? Thanks

It's not, well south now. 

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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
Posted (edited)

Out of E Wales, thru SW Midlands, Wiltshire, before exiting thru Sussex.

It'll lose intensity by time it hits southern most counties though.

Edited by Bristle boy
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Severe Siberian icy blast Experienced

Severe Siberian icy blast

Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
Posted

Ah, but is it polar low or just a small synoptic low? Seen a number of people in the know who are not convinced but would love to proved wrong!

 

Anyway, polar low or not, this will be fun to watch!

I'm going as a midlands event , East wales and as Far East as Warwickshire , then swinging southeast , I think Oxford should get some beofre slipping South .

Just out of interest this seems very intense and I would think it certainly had the potential to drop anything from 5-10cm for those in the prime spot . Just wondering what your and others thoughts were ?

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

Don't believe this is a polar low for one minute, and as it currently stands unless you live above 250m (even then it will be a slushy mess) expect rain.

On the western side of the low ;)

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

I'll go with NW England, W Midlands, Central Southern Eng and then through I.O.W

 

I think thats quite close but I'd go a touch south and east than that, with a movement slowly swinging more and more SE as time goes by. SSE for the next 6hrs then more pure SE afterwards.

 

All those years of hurricane tracking and forecasting is going to come in handy here I hope!

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted

Ah, but is it polar low or just a small synoptic low? Seen a number of people in the know who are not convinced but would love to proved wrong!

 

Anyway, polar low or not, this will be fun to watch!

If they look at the animation Nick then they will see how it has formed and is not thermal boundary driven at inception. If it becomes so, then so be it, but it wasn't at inception.

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ANYWEATHER Maestro

ANYWEATHER

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
Posted (edited)

Well. Im expecting this tomorrow morning :cold: from the polar low

post-6830-0-14322800-1422566674_thumb.jp

Edited by ANYWEATHER
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sconetone Enthusiast

sconetone

Posted
  • Location: Mansfield, Notts 123m ASL
  • Location: Mansfield, Notts 123m ASL
Posted

I reckon NW England, through into North East Derbyshire - then knowing my luck it'll get stuck in roadworks on the M1.....

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Author
Posted

A bit precise but much closer to the mark than many on here. The snow of course will be to the North and East of that track and strong winds and potential thunderstorms on a more dramatic SW side.

 

"much closer to the mark"

 

We don't know where the "mark" is, that's kinda the point

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

Ah, but is it polar low or just a small synoptic low? Seen a number of people in the know who are not convinced but would love to proved wrong!

 

Anyway, polar low or not, this will be fun to watch!

 

Its a grand question, I think it looks like a Polar low, its in marginal conditions for them to form but the source is good for it and the structure is great.

 

With that being said, it kind of reminds me of the Jan 2010 low when it was near the south coast, especially on the radar and that was a similar low that formed in a broader cylconic flow from the north/north-west.

 

Won't be as much though as its more convective rather than frontal in nature like that one was.

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tom_f123 Explorer

tom_f123

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley/Dudley, West Midlands. 672ft/205m
  • Location: Sedgley/Dudley, West Midlands. 672ft/205m
Posted

Is this likely to strengthen as it heads over the irish sea at all? 

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Cymro Community Regular

Cymro

Posted
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
Posted

On the western side of the low ;)

Hehe Polar the other one!

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virtualsphere Aficionado

virtualsphere

Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
Posted

I don't think it is a true Polar Low. A polar Low is a sub-synoptic feature which will not show up on a synoptic chart. I remember reading an article in Weather magazine about the Shetland Polar Low in February 2001. 500Hpa temperatures need to be below -52C. Forms in a strong baroclinic flow. Warm cored like it's tropical cousin. Centre filled with Nimbostratus producing heavy snow with gale force 8+ force winds at the surface.

 

Free online if anyone's interested: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wea.6080581205/pdf

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cowdog Enthusiast

cowdog

Posted
  • Location: Border of N.Yorks / W.Yorks / Lancashire - 350m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but Rain!
  • Location: Border of N.Yorks / W.Yorks / Lancashire - 350m asl
Posted

Given its not far away from the English coast now, tracks putting it through Wales seem well off. Looks like hitting somewhere on the Preston / Lancashire peninsular then heading SE from there; center will be over there within next hour and half.

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starflake Newbie

starflake

Posted
Posted

Does anyone know how to download the animation on this site 

 

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

 

Would be really useful to download from tomorrow morning so that we can have the polar low from inception to finish.

 

I have no idea how to save the animation but they do have still images for 15 minute intervals available via "Satellite Images".

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Rocheydub Seasoned

Rocheydub

Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
Posted

I think it will just run out of puff on the Irish sea between Dublin and Holyhead ...

For what it's worth, just had a serious squall line pass through here, massive rain droplets and very gusty. If it had fallen as snow, we'd have had several inches fall, the droplets were that big!  Rain rate of 80mm/hr at it's peak!

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simkin Newbie

simkin

Posted
  • Location: Ashurst, New Forest, Hampshire
  • Location: Ashurst, New Forest, Hampshire
Posted (edited)

Does anyone know how to download the animation on this site 

 

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

 

Would be really useful to download from tomorrow morning so that we can have the polar low from inception to finish.

 

I saved it as an AVI, check post 274 of this thread

Edited by simkin
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