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Tracking the potential Polar Low - Thursday into Friday


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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

Will the direction of its movement not be more guided by the overall flow of the trough? By midnight tonight the trough is digging quite far south into France and not tailing off to the SE as might usually be the case - so to my eye it would be odd to see it spin eastwards quite as early as that?

 

fax24s.gif?2

 

Agreed, however given it's slightly further east than it's forecast position, and the flow is indeed down the Irish sea I would suggest it will track slightly east of current thought.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

I wonder if the express are paying attention, bet nobody there has ever heard of a polar low before. A new buzz weather phase to drop into their snow sensation stories, JM are you watching, repeat after me Polar Low, could in the right hands be snow measured in metres not centimetres.

knowing the DE, we'd see a headline akin to "Deadly Polar Vortex Spreads Absolute Zero Temps Across Britain"  :fool: 

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

I have no idea but you seem very certain and I am amazed how sure you can be! I can just look outside and to me it feels cold with some snow on its way and earlier forecasts of rain and sleet haven't happened.

 

This system has less cold air within it. It's on a knife-edge but lower levels are on the rain/sleet side of the fence in my opinion. Higher ground will get a bucketload.

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Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex

knowing the DE, we'd see a headline akin to "Deadly Polar Vortex Spreads Absolute Zero Temps Across Britain"  :fool: 

 

Reminds me of The Day After Tomorrow...

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Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme Weather, Tornado's, Heavy snowfall, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wolverhampton

Be careful tonight as things like this can and do go pear shaped.

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

I remember John Kettley mis-forecasting one in great detail back in winter 03/04 - would have brought major snow event to the officially snowless city of Lancaster, for the first time in 7/8 years.

 

It never came and I destroyed my sink in anger.

 

Similar experience - not by JK - nailed on event on the Fylde everything just perfect  - just a matter of time and we got freezing rain - horrendous stuff - ppn fell through a "warm sector" apparently.

 

Ian

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Similar experience - not by JK - nailed on event on the Fylde everything just perfect  - just a matter of time and we got freezing rain - horrendous stuff - ppn fell through a "warm sector" apparently.

 

Ian

 

Freezing rain could well be an issue with this for a time. Depends how long the ground gets to cool before it arrives.

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

I remember John Kettley mis-forecasting one in great detail back in winter 03/04 - would have brought major snow event to the officially snowless city of Lancaster, for the first time in 7/8 years.

 

It never came and I destroyed my sink in anger.

 

A case of PPN mis-selling?

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

anim_ir.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire

I really do hope the Daily Express don't pick up on this:(

 

I can do without my friends texting me and asking if there is a "Polar vortex of death with snow tornadoes and lightning tsunamis" on the way.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

The (potential) Polar low can be seen to the bottom right of this MODIS image

 

jGWuwL0.jpg

 

 

And to the top left of this.

 

kVF1BKO.jpg

 

 

More images here http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?area=eu

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Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent

knowing the DE, we'd see a headline akin to "Deadly Polar Vortex Spreads Absolute Zero Temps Across Britain"  :fool: 

It's been done! There was one during April in the early 70s. Gave us about 10 inches. Clearly journalists did their research in those days, the headline of our local rag that night was, "SNOWED UP BY A POLAR LOW".

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

I think it could affect parts of SE - those more to the N & W are favoured, it is a beast let's hope it does its duty. I've been glued to the screen for nearly 2 hours something is stirring thats for sure. :)

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Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF

Don't rule anything out as this polar low comes South.

Yes it has embedded Atlantic (less cold ) air mixed in.

However snow has fallen as low as 25m above sea level today and on some surfaces remained.

Dew points at Barry ( right on the coast are currently -0.3

temperature 2 c on coast.

Inland snow will assist with keeping dew points and temp low

Then as we saw today heavy precipitation will drop temperatures further with evaporative cooling.

today 3c to 1c in a few minutes at around 3pm

 

So marginal for many on low ground, but not impossible. 

 

Just to add

Maybe thunder snow possible too

Edited by pyrotech
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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

http://www.sat24.com/

 

Is that a Polar Low forming to the North-West of Scotland? Just skirted over a few models and can't see a low that extensive being forecasted anywhere

It was showing as secondary formation as early as last weekend on the models not sure its a true polar low, thought the 850s had to substantially colder in those?

It's been done! There was one during April in the early 70s. Gave us about 10 inches. Clearly journalists did their research in those days, the headline of our local rag that night was, "SNOWED UP BY A POLAR LOW".

March 1970 actually and yes that was a true polar low residing in -10c uppers.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

Based on what I have seen this is going to hit NW England and track SE across the Midlands and exiting around London.

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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

Surely by definition Chino, if it's been around long enough to be picked up on the 0z ECM, it is definitely not a Polar low?

Quite it was 'picked up' as early as last weekend

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I really do hope the Daily Express don't pick up on this:(

 

I can do without my friends texting me and asking if there is a "Polar vortex of death with snow tornadoes and lightning tsunamis" on the way.

 

Well it's a bit late for them to pick up on it now. Usually if there's a sniff of cold weather at T+384 that's when Madden gets alerted and gets his fake plastic staff to spiel soundbytes. :D

 

Lightning tsunamis?! LOL, even Madden wouldn't go that far. You're being silly. Stop it :p

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

Though I imagine it was picked up as a wave (indicating a simply trough), not a fully fledged secondary low/polar low.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

I'm not entirely convinced it is a polar low as the low was up near Iceland yesterday evening as an open wave and seems to have formed at a boundary between less cold air coming west from Scandi aloft wrapping around the parent low just NE of the UK sandwiched between cold air over the UK and coming down from Greenland, with the 'warmer' air occluded out aloft as can be seen in the T500 chart for noon today:

 

attachicon.gifH500_12.png

 

Normally would expect 500mb air temps to be around -40C or below, -35C at the warmest extreme perhaps, can't really see the airmass over the low that cold.

 

Polar lows tend to be barotropic (forming within a cold airmass) rather than baroclinic (along boundaries of airmasses).

 

12z UKMO (meso) takes the little low to the NW southeast down across N Ireland then Wales then out across English Channel  around Dorset/Hants - looks like sleet and snow from this feature this evening across N Ireland then overnight mostly to the west of London -especially across Wales and the West Country overnight.

Looking at the satellite image though Nick, the structure is barotropic rather than baroclinic (ie no frontal systems evident)

Quite it was 'picked up' as early as last weekend

What was picked up last weekend was not what this is - that was a secondary low which has been picked and dropped - not what we are looking at now.

Edited by chionomaniac
got baroclinic and tropic wrong places!
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Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl

Based on what I have seen this is going to hit NW England and track SE across the Midlands and exiting around London.

Looks like a good call to me

I haven't had a chance to take a proper look yet as I'm on the way home but it already appears on radar to be a little further East of the projected positioning on many short range models with the track more SSE than S

These things always spring a lot of surprises though - best to wait and see what happens when it makes full landfall

SK

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Posted
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Showers, Snowy Periods , Blizzards, Cold Weather
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees

Any chance of snow in northeast England tonight?

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m

12zNMM. Already further east !

 

nmmuk-1-5-0.png?29-18

 

NW England by midnight, perhaps (slightly) further east?

nmmuk-1-11-0.png?29-18

Spell of heavy snow for South Yorkshire, North and East Midlands 

nmmuk-1-13-0.png?29-18

Edited by Mark Bayley
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