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Somerset Squall

Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Eunice

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MeteoFrance are monitoring a tropical depression located roughly 650 miles west-southwest of Diego Garcia, which has been slowly consolidating over the last few days to the west of the system that has become Moderate Tropical Storm Diamondra. JTWC have issued a tropical cyclone formation alert on the system, expecting the system to reach 35kt winds (1-min sustained), within the next 24hrs.

MeteoFrance's intensity forecast for the depression is quite aggressive, forecasting the system to become an Intense Tropical Cyclone, with 10-min sustained winds of 100kts (which would probably equate to about 115kts 1 min-sustained).

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Luckily, if this forecast verified, this system would stay away from land.

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At 271800 UTC this system had a central pressure of 997 hPa, wind speed (10 minute) 30 knots, radius of maximum winds 56 kms, and moving east at 5 knots. Although yesterday predicting a peak intensity of 110 knots RMSC La Reunion now expects it to reach a peak of 90 knots in 60 hours. Cloud top temperatures of -89C and favourable conditions along the forecast track will assist early rapid intensification. Vertical wind shear is weak and should remain so for the next 5 days.

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Now been upgraded to Moderate Tropical Storm Eunice by MeteoFrance, and warnings have been initiated by JTWC also. They expect a peak of 105kts (1 min sustained). Eunice looks pretty tightly wrapped currently with a well established central dense overcast feature, rapid intensification seems a distinct possibility.

Eunice is now moving southeastwards as a near equatorial ridge gains steering influence of both Diamondra and Eunice. This steering mechanism is set to remain in place over the next several days maintaining this general track.

Edited by Somerset Squall

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Eunice is rapidly intensifying. An eye has popped out from the central dense overcast, and winds are up to 85kts according to JTWC, cat 2 on the SS scale. JTWC now expect a peak of 125kts. With the excellent dual outflow channels expected to persist, Eunice is going to become a pretty intense cyclone.

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Edited by Somerset Squall

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At 281800 UTC central pressure 968 hPa, wind speed (10 minute) 75 knots, radius of maximum winds 19 kms, tracking south east at 9 knots.

Eunice is expected to peak in about 48 hours at 100 knots. At 1249 UTC and 1532 UTC there were indications of eyewall replacement occuring. Vertical wind shear remains weak until Sunday but then increasing shear and lowering sea surface temperatures should commence a weakening of the system.

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Eunice has continued to rapidly intensify, with winds now at 115kts according to JTWC, a cat 4 on the SS scale. Eunice is forecast to become a cat 5 on the SS scale, with winds of 140kts, as the favourable environment of low shear and strong outflow persists.

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Edited by Somerset Squall

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Stunning...

 

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Dvorak satellite image of Eunice

 

If Eunice would be able to become slightly more circular (and get slightly deeper convection in its western quadrant), this could easily become a category 5 tropical cyclone (SSHS scale).

 

Eyewall is also nicely closed according to CIMSS MIMIC imagery:

 

last24hrs.gif

CIMSS MIMIC imagery of Eunice

 

Sources:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09S/09S_floater.html

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2015_09S/webManager/basicGifDisplay.html

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At 291800 UTC central pressure 915 hPa, wind speed (10 minute) 125 knots, radius of maximum winds 19 kms, tracking south south east at 9 knots.

Eunice has intensified rapidly, which is not unusual for cyclones with a small eye. They change rapidly in response to their surrounding environment. During Friday upper divergence equatorward is expected to weaken, however, poleward outflow remains good and vertical wind shear low. With a bit of a stretch Eunice might make it to the Australian Western Zone still at tropical cyclone strength. Although westerly shear is likely to set in the system should at that stage be accelerating eastwards effectively reducing the relative shear.
 

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Eunice has become a category 5 on the SS scale with winds now at 140kts according to JTWC. Eunice has a very well defined eye embedded in a solid central dense overcast which has become more symmetrical. JTWC are now forecasting a peak of 150kts in tbe next 24hrs. This is possible, if an eyewall replacement cycle doesn't get in the way. Currently, there are no signs of one. If Eunice did indeed reach that strength, it will become a rare beast for this basin.

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Edited by Somerset Squall

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It certainly is chugging along nicely now. RMSC La Reunion at 300600 UTC have the central pressure at 900 hPa, wind speed (10 minute) 130 knots, radius of maximum winds 20 kms. There's no indication of an eye wall replacement occuring any time soon. Currently at 68E the possibility of it reaching the Australian Western Zone still at tropical cyclone strength is becoming more likely.

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At 310600 UTC central pressure 932 hPa, wind speed (10 minute) 110 knots, radius of maximum winds 15 kms, tracking east south east at 10 knots.

Eunice is undergoing eye wall replacement. The surrounding environment is slowly deteriorating. In 48 hours the system should commence extra tropical transition.

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Indeed, Eunice is certainly weakening now after it's 140kt (1 min sustained) peak. Winds are now down to 120kts using that wind measurement, which is a cat 4 on the SS scale. Convective cloud tops are warming significantly and the eye is losing definition. The track should take Eunice over progressively cooler waters and into higher shear, which will initiate extratropical transition as Tropicbreeze states.

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At 010600 UTC central pressure 965 hPa, wind speed (10 minute) 70 knots, radius of maximum winds 41 kms, tracking east south east at 20 knots.

Lower sea surface temperatures and north westerly shear is causing a collapse of the deep convection in the northern sector. Looks like Eunice after extra tropical transition may catch up and merge with the ex-Diamondra.

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Ex-Eunice now, the system is really hurtling along at 35 knots.

At 020600 UTC central pressure 972 hPa, wind speed (10 minute) 55 knots, radius of maximum winds 74 kms, tracking east south east at 35 knots.


RMSC La Reunion won't be issuing any further advices. Next advice on this system will be issued by Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre.

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