South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat

[Rich_Clements]

 We are using UKV now for the higher-res PPN phase forecasting / accumulating snow likelihoods.

 

Thursday early hrs/ early AM is particularly interesting, given the continued modelling of a small-scale cold front moving south through W Midlands/Bristol Channel. Theta-W fields show this well. We suspect this could yield more organised prospect of snow showers for some districts of W Country/central-S England early Thurs but await further runs before committing to the notion with deterministic confidence.

Appreciate that Ian, Thanks

[A.J]

If sarcasm and light hearted ribbing was an offence on here... I'd have been banned years ago

Bugger off beka, it needs to be up a bit more so us Oxfordshire crew can have it *grabs streamer and makes a run for it *

damn, must have missed that one 

[Azazel]

Almost the anniversary of said event too, I think it was the 29th January from memory, but would have to check. In Thatcham, near Newbury where I worked at the time, it began as rain and hail, a howling gale developed, the rain quickly turned to sleet then heavy snow with cars gridlocked and a 2 1/2 hour journal home ensued. A fine example of Thundersnow and the fact that snow can settle even when rain has previously dampened the ground. We received some 3 to 3 1/2 inches at home that day but what a memory it remains.

 

I remember it well here.

Before the days of weather forums for me, I hadn't checked the weather forecast for some time and the event took me completely by surprise.

 

I recall being in the pub, a spritely 20 year old enjoying a pint of Fosters probably. It was getting dark and there was nothing out of the ordinary when we started to notice cars through the window, driving through the village centre absolutely plastered in snow. It was kind of surreal at the time and didn't make sense to my slightly annebriated brain.

Suddenly, it began to hail and out of the blue there was a vivid blue flash and an almighty crack of shotgun thunder as the hail turned into a wall of snow. The snow literally caked the windows to the point where it was impossible to see what was going on and all you could hear was the deep rumbling and booming of thunder with the odd flash of lightning thrown in.

Needless to say I went outside to play and it was like an ice rink. It was right in the middle of rush hour so cars were sliding everywhere, there were several "accidents" and "fender-benders" and a sense of camaraderie as everyone worked together to dig out stranded cars and push others to safety.

 

I got hit by a well-placed snowball that day. Right in the nose. Never forget.

[legritter]

 We are using UKV now for the higher-res PPN phase forecasting / accumulating snow likelihoods.

 

Thursday early hrs/ early AM is particularly interesting, given the continued modelling of a small-scale cold front moving south through W Midlands/Bristol Channel. Theta-W fields show this well. We suspect this could yield more organised prospect of snow showers for some districts of W Country/central-S England early Thurs but await further runs before committing to the notion with deterministic confidence.

Thanks again for your input ,very interesting spell incoming ,The magic of snow ,outside 500 watt lamp ready ,garden furniture all arranged for photo shoot ,fingers crossed ,  

[Bobafet]

We are using UKV now for the higher-res PPN phase forecasting / accumulating snow likelihoods.

 

Thursday early hrs/ early AM is particularly interesting, given the continued modelling of a small-scale cold front moving south through W Midlands/Bristol Channel. Theta-W fields show this well. We suspect this could yield more organised prospect of snow showers for some districts of W Country/central-S England early Thurs but await further runs before committing to the notion with deterministic confidence.

As always appreciate your input Ian.

Let's hope that things stay interesting and fingers crossed we will see a flake or 2 million!!

[khodds]

Ian, thanks for the update re Thursday, I understand if you can't, but is there any chance you can update us later tonight about it? My boss is wondering if he needs to camp out at work tomorrow night! He has a 30 mile drive to work, and has to be there early Thursday morning!

Thank you

Edited January 27, 2015 by khodds

[fergieweather]

Ian, thanks for the update re Thursday, I understand if you can't, but is there any chance you can update us later tonight about it? My boss is wondering if he needs to camp out at work tomorrow night! He has a 30 mile drive to work, and has to be there early Thursday morning!

Thank you

Mendips and environs to E of there is the only part of W Country where a snow accumulation signal of any note has persisted through various recent runs of all more consistent modelling (ECMWF, UKMO-GM, E4, UKV....). Other areas yes, but Mendips has been a focus. Unsurprising given flow direction.

[andy_leics22]

Mendips and environs to E of there is the only part of W Country where a snow accumulation signal of any note has persisted through various recent runs of all more consistent modelling (ECMWF, UKMO-GM, E4, UKV....). Other areas yes, but Mendips has been a focus. Unsurprising given flow direction.

Fergie, sorry to bother you but what are the charts you have access to showing for the Oxfordshire area for the next few days?

[alex12]

Weather forcast not going much beyond tomorrow afternoon! Keeping us waiting!

[Mark Neal.]

12z Euro 4 with some interest for us.. 

   

 

Something to mull over  

[Chris Wsm]

Well Weston-Super-mare to Bristol looks ok as far as GFS is concerned , 528 line covering these areas , Tomorrow afternoon through Friday afternoon . Although wouldn't expect any settled snow , Weston side of the a370 . although looks pretty good chance of seeing Snow falling as the precipitation maps look like being quite heavy Showers over the area during tomorrow night . 

[Jayfromcardiff]

12z Euro 4 with some interest for us.. 

euro 2.gif euro 3.gif 123.gif 

 

Something to mull over

I get the feeling there will be more showers than shown there also merging of showers tomorrow night.

[fergieweather]

12z Euro 4 with some interest for us.. 

euro 2.gif euro 3.gif 123.gif

 

Something to mull over

 

We are working on any E4 accumulations showing from Midlands S'ward as overdone by about a factor of x2. Uncertainty on spatial distribution but signal for some accumulations in parts of the south, especially by/through Thurs AM, remains ok (via smallscale cold front-type feature I described earlier).  Might warrant a minor impacts ice/snow advisory but that decision won;t be made until tomorrow AM.

[Mark Neal.]

We are working on any E4 accumulations showing from Midlands S'ward as overdone by about a factor of x2. Uncertainty on spatial distribution but signal for some accumulations in parts of the south, especially by/through Thurs AM, remains ok (via smallscale cold front-type feature I described earlier).  Might warrant a minor impacts ice/snow advisory but that decision won;t be made until tomorrow AM.

Thanks Fergie for your input, the Euro 4 sometimes has a habit to overdo these showers from recent past?

[fergieweather]

Fergie, sorry to bother you but what are the charts you have access to showing for the Oxfordshire area for the next few days?

 

We are only tackling Thurs in any detail for now. Tentative accumulation signal in HRES (UKV etc) looks essentially S of M4 (Somerset, Wilts etc) given flow, but detail not wholly trustworthy yet re spatial extent.

Thanks Fergie for your input, the Euro 4 sometimes has a habit to overdo these showers from recent past?

 Yes - mentioned this here before. A known model issue (produces showers that are too 'clumpy').

[gottolovethisweather]

Bags of potential but what will it lead to?

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82366-model-output-discussion-23rd-jan-12z-onwards/?p=3141779

 

What a difference a day makes, to my mind that is a remarkable transformation all within a 24 hour period. So by this time tomorrow, I might well be transfixed to weather window watching, how about you?

Edited January 27, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[Jayfromcardiff]

We are only tackling Thurs in any detail for now. Tentative accumulation signal in HRES (UKV etc) looks essentially S of M4 (Somerset, Wilts etc) given flow, but detail not wholly trustworthy yet re spatial extent.

 Yes - mentioned this here before. A known model issue (produces showers that are too 'clumpy').

Hi fergie, do you think there's much chance of snow in Cardiff? Its nice to see the phrase "south of the m4 mentioned" as the majority of snow often happens north of it. Cheers.

[AWD]

Worth noting that 12z GFS Op shows a more organised snow event early next week for a large portion of the South/South West.

Just an observation at this stage but when placed alongside an earlier post from Ian regarding the 0z EC EPS showing a similar scenario , it certainly has credibility from me.

Plenty of interest for the winter lover this coming 10 days or so with the exception of a brief lull on Friday.

Edited January 27, 2015 by AWD

[Nights King]

Mendips and environs to E of there is the only part of W Country where a snow accumulation signal of any note has persisted through various recent runs of all more consistent modelling (ECMWF, UKMO-GM, E4, UKV....). Other areas yes, but Mendips has been a focus. Unsurprising given flow direction.

 

    

 

Thanks ian I guess we talking feet not inches here?

[Bristawl Si]

It might go against the general consensus in these 24-36 hour situs but over the last 5 or 6 winters the GFS t24 and less has been pretty accurate for precipitation forecasts, even compared to the more preferred shorter term models.

[Iceberg]

We are only tackling Thurs in any detail for now. Tentative accumulation signal in HRES (UKV etc) looks essentially S of M4 (Somerset, Wilts etc) given flow, but detail not wholly trustworthy yet re spatial extent.

 Yes - mentioned this here before. A known model issue (produces showers that are too 'clumpy').

Ian, Ive been told that UKV seems to enhance instability around the N.Dorset/Wiltshire region Wed 21.00 ish time, with temps of 2C and DP's of -1 or -2. Seems marginal but a possibility, can you shed any light on this please. ?

[AWD]

12z GEFS for the West Country showing the increased possibility of wintry PPN over the next 8-10 days or so.

Up to 95% likelihood at one point. lol.

[The Enforcer]

12z Euro 4 with some interest for us.. 

euro 2.gif euro 3.gif 123.gif

 

Something to mull over

Does any of that affect the Mendips? Something to mullender over.

[offerman]

This weather HD pro App is normally quite accurate but I have a feeling it's way off the mark with this.

I think it won't be dry for all those days it shows whether it be rain/ sleet or dare I say it ., snow!

[gottolovethisweather]

Worth noting that 12z GFS Op shows a more organised snow event early next week for a large portion of the South/South West.

Just an observation at this stage but when placed alongside an earlier post from Ian regarding the 0z EC EPS showing a similar scenario , it certainly has credibility from me.

Plenty of interest for the winter lover this coming 10 days or so with the exception of a brief lull on Friday.

 

Indeed, good to see you posting AWD, I also mentioned it as you're no doubt aware. To boot, tonight's ECM brings in the much colder 850s from February 1st onwards as well. Watered down somewhat as the possible breakdown end of current cold spell shows up from 4th/5th February, as it stands this being la la land.

Edited January 27, 2015 by gottolovethisweather