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Nick L

By Nick L
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Whiteout74 Newbie

Whiteout74

Posted
  • Location: Blewbury, South Oxfordshire
  • Location: Blewbury, South Oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

I might just revisit this post come next Tuesday then. Anyhow, Mr/Mrs/Ms Whiteout, would you be so kind to update your profile to reflect your location for when any snow does start falling, folk like to know where we all live in such instances.  :hi:

 

Done. :)

Edited by Whiteout74
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festivalking Experienced

festivalking

Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: The fabled channel low
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
Posted

That's strange,forecast for Plymouth airport has flipped from rain and more rain to rain and sleet.you could take walk up to princetown, may be near white out conditions at times up there.

 

Yep that extra 250 metres makes all the difference, they have 5 days of snow showers progged. Lucky beggars! Went up weekend before last and walked up to Great mis tor (about 550 m/asl, lovely thick snow!)

 

IMBY we always tend to be about 100 metres below the snow line.

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The Enforcer Rising Star

The Enforcer

Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
Posted (edited)

Pass but a good question, like any specifics at that range that would largely be immaterial. Not to say I don't remain interested in it even if it misses my house, which it is currently forecast to do. All of that aside, tomorrow is where the potential for snowy merriment begins and apart from Friday, it's a cold outlook for sure. 

A cold outlook of cold rain, even on Thursday before it turns less cold, according to the 06z NMM due to the pesky WBFL:

 

post-992-0-32477900-1422373136_thumb.png :(

 

Done. :)

Another inhabitant of the 'green county'. I just looked up your ASL, which is 67m according to http://dateandtime.info/citycoordinates.php?id=2655348

I was expecting Blewbury to be at a higher elevation than that.

Edited by The Enforcer
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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted

Never seen it as quiet...

I guess really model runs don't cut the mustard for this as we are looking for mesoscale development and nowcasting.

Re the 2004 Thundersnow - I was in  Norwich and we had an epic fall of snow very quickly and my sister nr Salisbury reckoned that it was a good fall round there too (around 4-5 inches I think) - what did others have in this region? In this kind of set-up we are heavily reliant on troughs and disturbances, although IF's talk of the low sliding from Iceland down has promise...

 

Almost the anniversary of said event too, I think it was the 29th January from memory, but would have to check. In Thatcham, near Newbury where I worked at the time, it began as rain and hail, a howling gale developed, the rain quickly turned to sleet then heavy snow with cars gridlocked and a 2 1/2 hour journal home ensued. A fine example of Thundersnow and the fact that snow can settle even when rain has previously dampened the ground. We received some 3 to 3 1/2 inches at home that day but what a memory it remains.

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted

A cold outlook of cold rain, according to the 06z NMM due to the pesky WBFL:

 

attachicon.gifnmmuk-1-64-0a.png :(

 

Another inhabitant of the 'green county'. I just looked up your ASL, which is 67m according to http://dateandtime.info/citycoordinates.php?id=2655348

I was expecting Blewbury to be at a higher elevation than that.

 

Marginality the key word once again but tis only one run and the UKMO will firm up with their opinion on such things nearer the time and it may well yet become a nowcast. The weekend onwards is more of interest to me personally, but I will never say never to any chances beforehand. 

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The Enforcer Rising Star

The Enforcer

Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
Posted

Marginality the key word once again but tis only one run and the UKMO will firm up with their opinion on such things nearer the time and it may well yet become a nowcast. The weekend onwards is more of interest to me personally, but I will never say never to any chances beforehand. 

When the charts for Thursday were 5 days away, like Sunday is now, lots of well-informed and well-meaning posters were saying that the charts showed bags of snow potential (or words to that effect) and to wait for the detail nearer the time. Now the detail is becoming evident it's showing only rain - that's at least 4 NMM runs now. My worry is that this will repeat with Sunday, when great looking charts are spoilt by a WBFL requiring everyone to live above 500m to receive snowfall.

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Whiteout74 Newbie

Whiteout74

Posted
  • Location: Blewbury, South Oxfordshire
  • Location: Blewbury, South Oxfordshire
Posted

A cold outlook of cold rain, even on Thursday before it turns less cold, according to the 06z NMM due to the pesky WBFL:

 

attachicon.gifnmmuk-1-64-0a.png :(

 

Another inhabitant of the 'green county'. I just looked up your ASL, which is 67m according to http://dateandtime.info/citycoordinates.php?id=2655348

I was expecting Blewbury to be at a higher elevation than that.

 

Yeah, ASL not great, however White Horse Hill is only 20 mins away.

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)

When the charts for Thursday were 5 days away, like Sunday is now, lots of well-informed and well-meaning posters were saying that the charts showed bags of snow potential (or words to that effect) and to wait for the detail nearer the time. Now the detail is becoming evident it's showing only rain - that's at least 4 NMM runs now. My worry is that this will repeat with Sunday, when great looking charts are spoilt by a WBFL requiring everyone to live above 500m to receive snowfall.

 

You are quite right to remain cautious and I agree certain posters do often post from a "what they want to see" perspective but I personally never jumped on board this cold spell until Sunday I think it was. Experience tells me you may well be right but equally you may be wrong. It keeps us all interested though and that is part of the fun I guess.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)

Not a bad NH perspective to things at t+96 hours, should be relatively reliable at such a range too.

 

post-7183-0-02291200-1422374935_thumb.gi

 

The UK only view by same timeframe.

 

post-7183-0-54200700-1422375216_thumb.gi

 

That is quite a deep feature and yes before one says anything, the coldest air is nearer the SE and least coldest out West, however that is being rather picky. The weekend itself might yet prove fruitful for some with regard to wintriness, now let's see what is being offered for the start of next week.

 

 

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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andy_leics22 Rising Star

andy_leics22

Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
Posted (edited)

He was just messing about.

I'm not being funny but the joy of these regional threads is that it's all light hearted stuff, meant to raise a smile or two. I hope the fun side of the weather continues in here, the SW thread is one of the best on here, please don't start making it all serious.

If sarcasm and light hearted ribbing was an offence on here... I'd have been banned years ago :rofl:

Yah if its down a bit more i'll bank that :-D

Bugger off beka, it needs to be up a bit more so us Oxfordshire crew can have it :p *grabs streamer and makes a run for it * Edited by andy_leics22
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Nick L Maestro

Nick L

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Author
Posted

Let's keep it civil please folks...and weather related!

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)

Right, back to the more serious stuff now, the snow-chase begins.  :hi:

 

How to win friends and influence them.

 

 

 

post-7183-0-53362100-1422376394_thumb.pn

 

 

How about posting up a chart such as this, not bad for midday on Thursday, I'd suggest that will be a really bitter feeling day.  :cold:

 

More opportunities provided thereafter but enough of that for now.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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andy_leics22 Rising Star

andy_leics22

Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
Posted

In that case lets just break it off and share! One shower to you then one down to me then one to you lolol

Alright, deal :)

I think there will be a lot of shower activity around tomorrow evening, anyone could see some snow but in the form of showers.

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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted

Right, back to the more serious stuff now, the snow-chase begins.  :hi:

 

How to win friends and influence them.

 

 

 

attachicon.gifGFS P 12z 270115 UK Snow risk at t+48 - 1200hrs 290115.png

 

 

How about posting up a chart such as this, not bad for midday on Thursday, I'd suggest that will be a really bitter feeling day.  :cold:

 

More opportunities provided thereafter but enough of that for now.

 

I would say from that showers would be mainly of snow above 100m and maybe sleet/snow mix below?

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The Enforcer Rising Star

The Enforcer

Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
Posted

That couldn't be more opposite than the metoffice warning chart:

 

post-992-0-95785700-1422377106_thumb.png

 

I know which one I'd rather trust.

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Dorsetbred Maestro

Dorsetbred

Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
Posted

Alright, deal :)

I think there will be a lot of shower activity around tomorrow evening, anyone could see some snow but in the form of showers.

That'll be the folks from the MAD thread taking a cold shower I think.
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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)

I would say from that showers would be mainly of snow above 100m and maybe sleet/snow mix below?

 

 

That couldn't be more opposite than the metoffice warning chart:

 

attachicon.gif20150129 Warning.png

 

I know which one I'd rather trust.

 

This from yesterday evening

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82389-south-west-central-southern-england-weather-chat/?p=3140687

 

and my own here, back up both of your ideas in all honesty.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82389-south-west-central-southern-england-weather-chat/?p=3140316

 

However, I'll watching those Air Temperatures drop along with the Dewpoints and standing watch by my lamp-post either way.

 

One can live in hope. 

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted

That couldn't be more opposite than the metoffice warning chart:

 

attachicon.gif20150129 Warning.png

 

I know which one I'd rather trust.

 

You got it all wrong, its because northerners can't handle snow, their infrastructure isn't up to par :rofl:

 

Horses don't like it.

 

post-8911-0-56038400-1422377578_thumb.jp

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fergieweather Maestro

fergieweather

Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
Posted

Yah if its down a bit more i'll bank that :-D

 We are using UKV now for the higher-res PPN phase forecasting / accumulating snow likelihoods.

 

Thursday early hrs/ early AM is particularly interesting, given the continued modelling of a small-scale cold front moving south through W Midlands/Bristol Channel. Theta-W fields show this well. We suspect this could yield more organised prospect of snow showers for some districts of W Country/central-S England early Thurs but await further runs before committing to the notion with deterministic confidence.

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The Enforcer Rising Star

The Enforcer

Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
Posted

 We are using UKV now for the higher-res PPN phase forecasting / accumulating snow likelihoods.

Is UKV available online? I am guessing not?

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