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South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat


Nick L

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

Just watched national weather and I must say I feel down heartened I cant see much happening... :angry:  

Don't feel downhearted, rember I posted the MetO warning yesterday and it said "10% possibility of disruption", that's less than even Ladbrokes would want to take on of anything happening. So don't feel too bad, it wasn't expected anyway.

Edited by Dorsetbred
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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

For once I hope there isn't heavy snow next Tuesday. a) I am travelling to London by train - they can't cope with frost let alone snow, and b) I'd miss the excitement while in London for two days. I was really hoping this Thursday would deliver something of interest, fingers crossed for last minute positive adjustments.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

Arguably the key mesoscale development we are watchful for is showing within EC-ENS Mon-Tues, with low development running SE from Iceland to SW UK. Recent EC runs have hinted at this and we give 30% PROB currently. This possible, but still low-likelihood outcome, is reflected well in ENS spikes for PPN in Reading and Exeter plumes and a number of stamps both yesterday and again in 00z suite.

Surely this a high ground only affair regards snow.

 

Not expecting anything other than rain with a wintry mix for the rest of us.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Surely this a high ground only affair regards snow.

 

Not expecting anything other than rain with a wintry mix for the rest of us.

 

I think it would be foolish to write anything off, in a very cold Northerly airmass  which is unstable. more runs needed.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

I think it would be foolish to write anything off, in a very cold Northerly airmass  which is unstable. more runs needed.

 

True, but unlikely - certainly for my location anyway.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

True, but unlikely - certainly for my location anyway.

 

-8 to -10 850s are projected to be flirting with us by then too. So all to play for before any potential downgrade. 

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset

True, but unlikely - certainly for my location anyway.

March 2006 gave lying snow here from a N/NW cold flow, Dec 2010 as well so to rule out any possibility at all of snow falling is being a little pessimistic imo.

Edit : forgot to say both those snowfalls were from showers so that's why I'm not discounting any possibility of seeing snow falling.

Edited by Smartie
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Posted
  • Location: Eastington Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Hot in Summer Cold in Winter
  • Location: Eastington Gloucestershire

I remember that Dec 2010 event, I watched the snow work its way up the M5 by looking at the traffic cams

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

March 2006 gave lying snow here from a N/NW cold flow, Dec 2010 as well so to rule out any possibility at all of snow falling is being a little pessimistic imo.

Edit : forgot to say both those snowfalls were from showers so that's why I'm not discounting any possibility of seeing snow falling.

 

From what I remember weston was one of the sweet spots for December 2010 was it not? I remember one event they got loads from a northerly while Bristol only had a couple of inches.

 

Also being coastal late January into February is better than early winter because you have less moderation from warm water etc

Edited by Nights King
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Posted
  • Location: Blewbury, South Oxfordshire
  • Location: Blewbury, South Oxfordshire

Guessing this is part of the breakdown process?

 

I wouldn't worry either way, (a) it is 30% chance and it is a week away, i.e very unlikely to happen let alone worry about!

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset

From what I remember weston was one of the sweet spots for December 2010 was it not? I remember one event they got loads from a northerly while Bristol only had a couple of inches.

 

Also being coastal late January into February is better than early winter because you have less moderation from warm water etc

Yeah we got lucky with that streamer, for a while it was just north of here, was torture to watch it on the net weather radar but it eventually drifted slightly south and we had loads of snow from it! If it wasn't for that one shower streamer 2010 would have been a non event here.

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Posted
  • Location: Charlton Adam, near Somerton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, freezing rain, hail, thunderstorms!
  • Location: Charlton Adam, near Somerton, Somerset

Yeah we got lucky with that streamer, for a while it was just north of here, was torture to watch it on the net weather radar but it eventually drifted slightly south and we had loads of snow from it! If it wasn't for that one shower streamer 2010 would have been a non event here.

Yes, Dec 2010, streamer from the Bristol Channel, snow shower after shower all aftrnoon (19th Dec I think) down across Somerset and towards Yeovil.  We had about 10 inches+ and only a few miles away either side of vour village was about only 2 or 3 inches.

Anyway a lot of negativity and depression (this isn't the MOD thread is it?)  in here and we're still over 24 hours away from the start of any cold!! :cold::yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset

Yes, Dec 2010, streamer from the Bristol Channel, snow shower after shower all aftrnoon (19th Dec I think) down across Somerset and towards Yeovil. We had about 10 inches+ and only a few miles away either side of vour village was about only 2 or 3 inches.

Anyway a lot of negativity and depression (this isn't the MOD thread is it?) in here and we're still over 24 hours away from the start of any cold!! :cold::yahoo:

Dec 17th it was, will never forget that day, the streamer that hit here actually originated off the west coast of Wales.

Edited by Smartie
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Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness

-8 to -10 850s are projected to be flirting with us by then too. So all to play for before any potential downgrade. 

And what is my new nemesis, the WBFL, projected to be at that timescale?

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Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: The fabled channel low
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl

:sorry: Looking at the BBC and MO apps its gone from sleet and snow showers Wednesday and Thursday  to now rain rain and more rain. :fool:  Hope it flicks back later! I guess it shows how marginal these sets up are away from the highest of altitudes!

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Posted
  • Location: Blewbury, South Oxfordshire
  • Location: Blewbury, South Oxfordshire

:sorry: Looking at the BBC and MO apps its gone from sleet and snow showers Wednesday and Thursday  to now rain rain and more rain. :fool:  Hope it flicks back later! I guess it shows how marginal these sets up are away from the highest of altitudes!

 

dp's don't look great for you :sorry:

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Here's a few charts worth showing..

post-15177-0-39804200-1422369461_thumb.ppost-15177-0-21744300-1422369470_thumb.ppost-15177-0-57312200-1422369476_thumb.ppost-15177-0-99472800-1422369581_thumb.p

This one is probably the one that is most annoying. :laugh:

post-15177-0-54503500-1422369482_thumb.g

Edited by Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Day after tomorrow.
  • Location: Plymouth

:sorry: Looking at the BBC and MO apps its gone from sleet and snow showers Wednesday and Thursday  to now rain rain and more rain. :fool:  Hope it flicks back later! I guess it shows how marginal these sets up are away from the highest of altitudes!

That's strange,forecast for Plymouth airport has flipped from rain and more rain to rain and sleet.you could take walk up to princetown, may be near white out conditions at times up there.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

From what I remember weston was one of the sweet spots for December 2010 was it not? I remember one event they got loads from a northerly while Bristol only had a couple of inches.

 

Also being coastal late January into February is better than early winter because you have less moderation from warm water etc

 

We were,

 

Was coming back from work in Nailsea near Bristol & the motorway was clear when I got on it Clevedon. As I headed down to Weston I could see the clouds converging on Weston (It was partly clear over Clevedon) When I got off at Weston it was snowing hard, with about 3-4" already on the ground.

 

Very impressive & certainly Weston was in the sweet spot.

 

However, snow fall later on in the year is less impressive, & while we have had snow, not massive amounts & certainly not any that's not melted with-in a few hours to a day.

 

Proper snow that stay's on the ground longer than a day, very rarely happen in Weston after about this time.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

I wouldn't worry either way, (a) it is 30% chance and it is a week away, i.e very unlikely to happen let alone worry about!

 

I might just revisit this post come next Tuesday then. Anyhow, Mr/Mrs/Ms Whiteout, would you be so kind to update your profile to reflect your location for when any snow does start falling, folk like to know where we all live in such instances.  :hi:

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

And what is my new nemesis, the WBFL, projected to be at that timescale?

 

Pass but a good question, like any specifics at that range that would largely be immaterial. Not to say I don't remain interested in it even if it misses my house, which it is currently forecast to do. All of that aside, tomorrow is where the potential for snowy merriment begins and apart from Friday, it's a cold outlook for sure. 

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

Strangely quiet in mod thread as everyone waits the next set of runs :friends:

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Posted
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol

I wouldn't worry either way, (a) it is 30% chance and it is a week away, i.e very unlikely to happen let alone worry about!

Not worried, just ties in with the breakdown to something midweek.

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Posted
  • Location: Warminster
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, stormy
  • Location: Warminster

Strangely quiet in mod thread as everyone waits the next set of runs :friends:

Never seen it as quiet...

I guess really model runs don't cut the mustard for this as we are looking for mesoscale development and nowcasting.

Re the 2004 Thundersnow - I was in  Norwich and we had an epic fall of snow very quickly and my sister nr Salisbury reckoned that it was a good fall round there too (around 4-5 inches I think) - what did others have in this region? In this kind of set-up we are heavily reliant on troughs and disturbances, although IF's talk of the low sliding from Iceland down has promise...

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