South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat

[karlos1983]

I don't think it'd be possible to even build such a radar anyhow but you never know, those real time reports, i.e. social radar reports can also help but it is what it is I guess.

I'm only messing, I know it's not possible! Shall be sticking my head out the window this evening lol good luck everyone

[MPG]

The grandparents round the corner who get up stupidly early even on weekends said there was some wet snow falling first thing. Since then just a brightish chilly day, but again, 5C after a minimum of 1C is just standard January fare. Really want this cold spell to just arrive now!

6.6 high so far. Car temp in WESTON earlier was 8!

[Nights King]

Wow we have a severe weather warning... for 1cm that's a first. I guess they expect a trough tonight.

Maybe they expect Bristol to see this hence wArning as people could crash cars in panic not knowing whether or not sky is falling etc.

Edited January 31, 2015 by Nights King

[Mild Weather]

Wow we have a severe weather warning... for 1cm that's a first. I guess they expect a trough tonight.

Maybe they expect Bristol to see this hence wArning as people could crash cars in panic not knowing whether or not sky is falling etc.

As silly as the heat warnings they put out when it gets hot or in this case cold warnings.That reminds me not heard the m4 being mentioned today in any weather forecast.Probably wont last long

[A.J]

a dusting of snow during the middle of night......what's the point?......it's a bit like having a big thunderstorm overhead and sleeping through it! 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Most people are probably in bed! Haha. Looks like an all nighter for me. Combination of Fifa 15 on PS4 and radar watching. Beats going into Oxford, spending £50 on booze and waking up with a sore head

Oh gosh lol!! Your getting old! Guessing your not 22 no more ... I was wel tucked up in bed. A lovely suprise to wake up to the smallest dusting out there again - even little lady got to see it this time. JUST!

[MP-R]

6.6 high so far. Car temp in WESTON earlier was 8!

 

Yeeeesss I don't tend to take much notice of my car temperature, it normally has a +2-3C bias. Even last week when my weather station read -1.5C, the car said 2C haha. 

[festivalking]

Constant rain sleet snow this morning. Just the wrong side of marginal.

[MPG]

Yeeeesss I don't tend to take much notice of my car temperature, it normally has a +2-3C bias. Even last week when my weather station read -1.5C, the car said 2C haha.

Yeah the car is not reliable. It actually feels warmish in the sun now! Cold spell what cold spell!

Anyway MP-R I'm convinced your weather station is reading 1 to 1.5 degrees colder than it actually is. Especially when compared to mine and my father's Davis Vantage Pro 2.

Edited January 31, 2015 by MPG

[*Stormforce~beka*]

He he!

Where are you?

[William Grimsley]

Looks like I could see something snowy this evening and into tomorrow at some point.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

This depressing Winter goes on.

Rain here this morn.

Still, it's Saturday and time to pick my horses for this afternoon's betfest.

Have a great day all.

I hope thats matched betting mate ;-)

[khodds]

Which model data are Meto basing their warning on? Just run through the GFS data and it looks like the SW are largely dry tonight?

[Nights King]

Yeeeesss I don't tend to take much notice of my car temperature, it normally has a +2-3C bias. Even last week when my weather station read -1.5C, the car said 2C haha. 

 

Car temp is more accurate once the car has been moving for a mile or so.

[Nights King]

Which model data are Meto basing their warning on? Just run through the GFS data and it looks like the SW are largely dry tonight?

 

Yes but we might see a frost 

 

I have no idea though maybe they expect a trough to bump up ppn amounts.

[MP-R]

Yeah the car is not reliable. It actually feels warmish in the sun now! Cold spell what cold spell!

Anyway MP-R I'm convinced your weather station is reading 1 to 1.5 degrees colder than it actually is. Especially when compared to mine and my father's Davis Vantage Pro 2.

 

Don't think so mate, it's reading 06.2C at the moment, seems to be on a par with most around this area. Only drops down when showers move through really. 

[Nights King]

Back to that warning, after watching latest BBC forecast it shows an area of snow moving south tonight Gloucester and Wiltshire eastwards so I have no idea what warning is for in our region, maybe they have just covered the rest of us in middle instead of having 2 seperate warning zones and a gap for Bristol somerset and Dorset area.

 

Sods law though when you see direction of that trough. 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Yes. There's fairly good agreement on an area of rain/sleet/snow slipping south, courtesy of a front which is part of a small area of LP out in the North sea.

It could get a bit breezy down that East coast, it'll feel rather raw!

Anyway, don't take the precip chart as gospel. But, as I said, certainly another dusting for many by tomorrow morning.

And this time it shouldn't melt as it will be colder?

After having a look at various charts, I've come up with a rather clever map of areas that are unlikely to see anything wintry ..

map-2048-8.png

Joking aside, that's actually how it looks..

SOB LOL. Always the way ... Repeat after me ...

 

CHANNEL LOW ~ CHANNEL LOW ~CHANNEL LOW ~

[Mapantz]

And this time it shouldn't melt as it will be colder?

SOB LOL. Always the way ... Repeat after me ...

 

CHANNEL LOW ~ CHANNEL LOW ~CHANNEL LOW ~

I'm not so sure, temps look set to rise to 4, 5 and 6°C for our neck of the woods. It's not the best setup to keep any lying snow from melting. On the other hand, if I get some rain, it might freeze. lol

[MPG]

Don't think so mate, it's reading 06.2C at the moment, seems to be on a par with most around this area. Only drops down when showers move through really.

Yeah your about our 0.8 degrees or more colder than 4 weather sensors in your local area of Yatton.

Readings: 6.9,7.0,7.1,7.1. When the sun shines the shade temp goes above that.

What station have you got?

Edited January 31, 2015 by MPG

[karlos1983]

My DP is dropping rapidly. Now -0.2C.

If precip does hit tonight I think the marginality will have gone, 850's dropping, DP dropping and temps

[gottolovethisweather]

Why are people so exasperated over these warnings, they are only intended as a guidance tool after all. I will personally await the updates from the more knowledgeable folk in here and the MOD thread and if I get time I'll take a look at the latest expectations once the afternoon and early evening runs come out. To me, the marginality aspect doesn't disappear until Monday/Tuesday as anticipated by me some four days ago. By then, the deepest 850s start to show up more regularly and any precipitation should be snow for most, except for the fact that currently it is expected to be largely a dry signal. Whatever, tonight is likely to be a rerun of last night once again IMHO but it should not that readily melt if you were to get a dusting by morning. 

 

As suggested earlier, from my years of experience I'd simply use my previous guidance which was as follows.

 

"Eyes down for another nail-biting few days ahead of will it, won't it and what last night once again proved is that these disturbances can pop up at very short notice so I personally wouldn't be drawn into anything else other than radar watching and DP/AT/WBFL checks on a daily or less basis at times of precipitation."

 

A 4.6c maximum today so cold enough but in reality only 2 to 3c below average expectations. Next milder than average day being a good week away, now lets be having that snow weather gods and goddesses.   

Edited January 31, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[mitp]

The Colder upper air must be gradually making its way in as we have had the kitchen sink thrown at us in the last hour from the showers, I think once we get into darkness the temps will really start to fall

[khodds]

Back to that warning, after watching latest BBC forecast it shows an area of snow moving south tonight Gloucester and Wiltshire eastwards so I have no idea what warning is for in our region, maybe they have just covered the rest of us in middle instead of having 2 seperate warning zones and a gap for Bristol somerset and Dorset area.

Sods law though when you see direction of that trough.

That's exactly what I thought - I'm getting more and more fed up as the days go on. Ridiculous- and putting a warning out for 1cm of snow which is going to melt AGAIN within hours takes the pee.

EDIT: that's if you are lucky enough to get any in the first place!

Edited January 31, 2015 by khodds

[Nights King]

That's exactly what I thought - I'm getting more and more fed up as the days go on. Ridiculous- and putting a warning out for 1cm of snow which is going to melt AGAIN within hours takes the pee.

 

That's exactly what I thought - I'm getting more and more fed up as the days go on. Ridiculous- and putting a warning out for 1cm of snow which is going to melt AGAIN within hours takes the pee.

 

We won't see a cm of snow even on Mendip looking at ppn distribution. 

 

GTLW on the other hand should see something from tonight's light snow if I was to hazard a guess..