South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat

[MPG]

Quite a pleasant afternoon here. 7C, mostly sunny with some cloud and a light breeze. Feels more like early March lol.

High of 8.2 today.....

[fromey]

[gottolovethisweather]

Having read fergieweathers wonderful post from earlier and added to that AWDs, it is good to know the current spell has been well modelled since I first picked up on the overall signal trend.

 

See here for instance and it does seem the daily details haven't altered very much at all either. As to why I can nail it down so well, for example, I for one, as fergie suggests and the likes of JH often do, I stick to identifying trends in intra runs, rather than jump on differences as to why one run differs from the last one or last nights etc. 

 

Right off I go to search for what might the next mild day, a long way off for sure. Whilst it is cold and in the short-term getting colder, there remains an opportunity or two for localised falls of snow.

 

Eyes to SW parts over the weekend and after that, next week's shenanigans can viewed with intent too.

Edited January 30, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[offerman]

Being an older member my gut instinct tells me when I go outside there is no chilling cold by the feel of the wind on your face-in many winters of too long ago I care to remember you instinctively knew that snow was in the air by the iciness of the wind. You didnt need a computer to tell you.As I stated earlier these current excuses of Northerlies are not conducive of snow for many down here.Quite simply the weather is not cold. Nothing in the near future changes my opinion.

 

Hello,

 

I am an older member to and remember true bitter winters and i know exactly what you mean about the Icy Feel of snow!

 

Also agree it is not cold at present compared to the four stretch cold winter from two years ago backward and many winters back in the 80`s and couple early 90`s. as well as a few in the 70`s.

[ARTDEMOLE]

Being and as an older member silver surfer...... I remember the  62/3 winter cold.. Though some  say it was not cold.. But I was walking to work through each day of it to make boots and shoes. Had 2 winters in Berlin as well....

[gottolovethisweather]

A quick analysis of the GFS 12z and UKMO combined.

 

More immediate Timeframe:

 

NH Jet displaced south and by the weekend, a split flow has developed with one arm directly positioned over Western UK promoting an aligment flow directly N-S.

 

On the GFS, a kink in the isobars is shown by 0300hrs Sunday over parts of the SW, I would hint at this bringing a brief period of wintriness for Cornwall, Devon and Somerset & Avon during this time. On the face of it, if the precipitation is heavy enough and the forecast 850s of -6/-7 materialise along with -1/-2 dewpoints then there could be a covering by morning even in lowland areas. I await the professional forecaster's viewpoint on this but currently rate it as a small risk event by way of snow depths (1 to 2 inches top) with a high probability (>80%) of it effecting North facing coasts of Devon and Cornwall in particular, higher hills elsewhere might cop some but less than those exposed to the raw Northerly as would be imagined.

 

By Monday the problematic surface feature comes into range, currently modelled by the GFS at least as skirting the very far SW and here the precipitation will be light in nature, negligible and of a non-wintry element in general. The uncertainty surrounding this mesoscale feature's development and its precise track having not been determined, this would mean a great difference in surface conditions should it track further North for example. If it were to shift only 100-200 miles northwards, which is currently a small-medium risk judging by media forecasts then sleet and snow would feature much more prominently in the forecasts and we would all be in with a chance, especially those located south of the M4.   I'd currently place bets as a 50:50 chance as to whether this region, more especially the far SW once again getting in on some action.

 

Overnight Monday into Early Tuesday perhaps represents a better option for a short period of precipitation of a wintry nature for Devon and Cornwall, Thanks to a wrap around front or two in association with the French bound surface feature aforementioned.

 

By Wednesday most of the precipitation is likely to disappear from our region at least initially due to a buckling reverse zonal Jet bringing winds from the North East or even the East and increasing dominance of High Pressure aligned to our NW. This could last for several days and I would rate Wednesday through to Friday, as being the coldest spell of the Winter, Thanks to 850s ranging from -6 at their lowest to -11 or thereabouts by next weekend. 

 

That'll be it for now, eyes down for some analyses from the ECM and those from other knowledgeable sources.

Edited January 30, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[isleofwightsnowgal]

.....Nuff said....

He was a ledge! Where is he?

[cornish snow]

Good afternoon to you all.

Just checked the BBC weather for this Sunday next Monday and compared to this morning its a major downgrade for snowfall for Cornwall.

Phew,you got me going then,you little tinker

Just checked again,still got my 9 hours of light snow on mon morning(bbc Helston)

[kent]

Hello,

 

I am an older member to and remember true bitter winters and i know exactly what you mean about the Icy Feel of snow!

 

Also agree it is not cold at present compared to the four stretch cold winter from two years ago backward and many winters back in the 80`s and couple early 90`s. as well as a few in the 70`s.

Hi. maybe its me being nostalgic but I can remember walking on freshly fallen snow that would crunch underfoot and beneath that compacted ice.The trees were all with hanging icicles that sparkled like giant chandaliers under the lamplights which gave it a magical feel and the frost under starry skies were as the Xmas carol goes.really cruel.  Its just that as a lad it seemed to be a winters norm. 

[Mapantz]

He was a ledge! Where is he?

No, no he wasn't. He's still about, and trolling.

[fergieweather]

Trough running south into Tues still a (pretty significant) snow threat across W Country from latest UKMO-GM. Tricky times ahead. Joy.... not.

Edited January 30, 2015 by fergieweather

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Hi. maybe its me being nostalgic but I can remember walking on freshly fallen snow that would crunch underfoot and beneath that compacted ice.The trees were all with hanging icicles that sparkled like giant chandaliers under the lamplights which gave it a magical feel and the frost under starry skies were as the Xmas carol goes.really cruel.  Its just that as a lad it seemed to be a winters norm. 

*Sobs uncontrollably*

[Bristawl Si]

Trough running south into Tues still a (pretty significant) snow threat across W Country from latest UKMO-GM. Tricky times ahead. Joy.... not.

Seems to have come back into play, so to speak, then Ian?

[fergieweather]

Seems to have come back into play, so to speak, then Ian?

 It hadn't disappeared. The initial low, well signalled to run to the SW into Mon, looks set to miss the UK (we have pretty decent confidence on that now). The second feature running south (through a very cold reservoir) is the fly in the ointment for early Tues.

[fergieweather]

Confidence remains very low for developments by Tuesday and I doubt that will change through next day or two. The potential is clearly evident for things to perhaps become bothersome, but much water to pass under the bridge on this evolution. Nothing to be taken literally... including latest PPN spread/timing prognosis. But for sure, one to watch.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Whats FR Drizzle?

[fergieweather]

Whats FR Drizzle?

Freezing drizzle.

[isleofwightsnowgal]

No, no he wasn't. He's still about, and trolling.

Sorry I kno but was funny sometimes!

[fergieweather]

Hi all. Please could I request that my posts here aren't cross-posted to the MOD forum. Thanks. They're specifically posted here for W Country folk.

[A.J]

Hi all. Please could I request that my posts here aren't cross-posted to the MOD forum. Thanks. They're specifically posted here for W Country folk.

noted Ian....I've removed the offending post from the model thread

[Nights King]

I wonder if we can get some ppn in the northerly flow past those pesky welch mountains before the weekend is out?

[MP-R]

For the first time in a long time, I am preying there is no snow between Tuesday and Friday next week - travelling far too much on transport that can only cope with dry and cloudy. As the last two snow events have failed, maybe this one will too!

[fergieweather]

noted Ian....I've removed the offending post from the model thread

Obliged - thanks.

[Andy hoyland]

Hi Ian, I rarely post on here but was wondering if you see any potential for snow down here in Poole early next week? I appreciate how difficult the forecast is at the minute but just wanted to hear your view if you get a chance.

Thank you, Andy.

[AWD]

I wonder if we can get some ppn in the northerly flow past those pesky welch mountains before the weekend is out?

Nah. Wishbone affect takes place this weekend.

Shown well on the EURO4.