South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat

[Costa Del Fal]

You do seem to do well from hail, don't you?

Indeed. Its about 4c here so too warm for snow. So difficult to get it down here. Maybe on Sunday if the forecasts remain on track. I think the instability from the relatively warm sea help to create the intensities ripe enough for hail.

[Raidan]

Had a snow flurry whilst at work today just after 4pm haven't seen anything since and doesn't seem as cold as last night

[katemart]

Dayum, sudden warming here. 1.4 and -0.8dp. Wind chill not enough either. Might give it a rest for a few hours. Perhaps if I stop refreshing raintoday it might fix itself?

Edited January 29, 2015 by katemart

[South coaster]

I'm actually in Emsworth, but no one really knows that area apart from us locals.

I'm in copnor so keeping everything crossed

[andy_leics22]

0.6c, -1c Dewpoint now after that snow shower.

It just started to snow as I was leaving work in Didcot at 8pm. Only light but was the proper stuff, no sleetyness at all.

I bet there will be nothing by the time I get home to Kennington!

It's squeaky bum time regards to this PPN over Northern Ireland and the Irish Sea! Looks to be tracking too far East to me. My prediction is that it will miss Oxford by about 30-40 miles to our East later on.

Really hope i'm wrong!

[Mapantz]

Here's a screenshot of that low moving down..

[Mark Neal.]

It just started to snow as I was leaving work in Didcot at 8pm. Only light but was the proper stuff, no sleetyness at all.

I bet there will be nothing by the time I get home to Kennington!

It's squeaky bum time regards to this PPN over Northern Ireland and the Irish Sea! Looks to be tracking too far East to me. My prediction is that it will miss Oxford by about 30-40 miles to our East later on.

Really hope i'm wrong!

Gonna be a close call, think Bucks/Midlands/Northants could do well at of it, from my viewpoint.

[Nights King]

It just started to snow as I was leaving work in Didcot at 8pm. Only light but was the proper stuff, no sleetyness at all.

I bet there will be nothing by the time I get home to Kennington!

It's squeaky bum time regards to this PPN over Northern Ireland and the Irish Sea! Looks to be tracking too far East to me. My prediction is that it will miss Oxford by about 30-40 miles to our East later on.

Really hope i'm wrong!

 

To your east? you are as far east as you can get in region and we all expect ppn to cross us in south easterly direction?

[fromey]

snowing here

 

fromey

[Bristawl Si]

Well it's defo warmed up here.

Came home at 4.30 and a thin layer of snow and ice; came home from pub at 6.30 and it was still there.

Just stepped outside and it's gone.

Currently spitting with rain.

Edited January 29, 2015 by Bristle boy

[Nights King]

snowing here

 

fromey

 

I watched that small green echo just go east of me and thought of you.

 

Just checked radar and that polar low is really starting to pump up ppn rates..

Edited January 29, 2015 by Nights King

[The Enforcer]

A couple of light snow flurries either side of 8pm, temperature then was 1.3*C, now 0.8*C, which was last night's low.

[Mapantz]

This so called "polar low" has obviously been spotted by the MetO, hence the warnings for wind. Although I haven't heard anyone calling it that, apart from on here.

I did read many years ago, that they were hard to forecast because of weak data from where they originate. Obviously, that isn't the case, otherwise no warnings would be out. There's two scenarios I can see from this, either chaos will ascend from it, and the MetO will get shot to pieces. Or, the MetO have called it right, and have plenty of data. Today's national forecasts certainly haven't created a big deal over it. A very interesting period, whether it is over hyped or not.

Some bumholes could be twitching!

[Bristawl Si]

That PL feature seems to be heading more for N Midlands, looking at its direction at mo over N Ireland

[AWD]

A little look into the future and the possibility of something more significant next week has grown on the 12z model data IMO now.

A good number of EC ens/GEFS members show a shallow low dropping South from the Iceland area on Monday. I'd give the liklehood of this low manifesting at a reasonably confident 60% now.

HOWEVER, there are still large variations on the track of this low and any disturbances running in behind it (ala GFS Op) which have large ramifications on whether we see rain/sleet/snow etc.

The possibility of a significant snow event affecting parts of the West Country on Mon/Tues is probably the highest it has been so far this winter, but the probability ofit being a damb squib is still probably slightly higher due to the ens variations.

As things stand at the moment though, at this range, if you are looking for a notable snowfall then you should be very interested and satisfied with early next weeks developments for now.

Edited January 29, 2015 by AWD

[Chul]

Temp is 1.5 here and dew point is -0.7. . . . . . .

[theprophecyman]

Temp now 2.7c from a earlier low of 1.2c

and DP now 0c from a earlier low of -2c

 

Probably accounts for the last shower being sleety

 

Are the temps/DP due to drop??

[Mark Neal.]

A little look into the future and the possibility of something more significant next week has grown on the 12z model data IMO now.

A good number of EC ens/GEFS members show a shallow low dropping South from the Iceland area on Monday. I'd give the liklehood of this low manifesting at a reasonably confident 60% now.

HOWEVER, there are still large variations on the track of this low and any disturbances running in behind it (ala GFS Op) which have large ramifications on whether we see rain/sleet/snow etc.

The possibility of a significant snow event affecting parts of the West Country on Mon/Tues is probably the highest it has been so far this winter, but the probability ofit being a damb squib is still probably slightly higher due to the ens variations.

As things stand at the moment though, at this range, if you are looking for a notable snowfall then you should be very interested and satisfied with early next weeks developments for now.

Nice summary buddy, what do you think of Wilts/Oxon would you say many have that under the influence of this low?

[Anthony81]

Had a brief light/moderate snow shower about 8pm here in cheltenham, it's biting out there in the breeze

[andy_leics22]

To my surprise, dusting of snow on the cars at Radley train station and cycling back to Kennington, the pavements had a dusting on too. Even the road I live on has a dusting on. Must be because we are slightly higher up at 100m.

[BucksSnow]

im 150 up in bucks nothing

[khodds]

OMG, all this radar watching is giving me palpitations... I'm boarding in exhaustion! Lol! I just want to see lying snow, is that too much to ask?!

[knocker]

Interesting wind flow at 1800z

 

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-0.76,58.94,1350

 

 

[Mark Neal.]

To my surprise, dusting of snow on the cars at Radley train station and cycling back to Kennington, the pavements had a dusting on too. Even the road I live on has a dusting on. Must be because we are slightly higher up at 100m.

Yes we have the slightest of a covering here too, on cars and bits of pavement, pictures don't look as good on phone however.

 

[Fred Sykes]

Just wrote this

When snow falls, time stands still.

The child from within rekindles with my soul,

The elegant way it falls, is gentle and familiar

It floats with grace, and speaks to me like an old friend

As if from another world, it wants to be noticed

From gloom to bright, it changes the world in one night

My old friend snow, I love you so