South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat

[Woollymummy]

Snowing in Oxford again (Botley) -yay! No thermometer here but basically too cold to use my mobile waiting for a bus....

[gottolovethisweather]

The GFS 12z tends to agree with the ECM up to around the 8th February too with regards to the colder 850s, colder still would be nice but why pick holes. 

 

Black rectangle shows timeframe of interest and any precipitation on or below the green line is highly likely to be snow even in lowland areas, which is atypical of Newbury and many other places.

 

This shows the 850s for Newbury via today's GFS 12z.

 

 

This indicates the anticipated precipitation amounts for Newbury, based on the same run.

 

 

Not necessarily hinting at much in the way of precipitation and will differ daily from that shown by way of amounts and by regions affected. It is certainly NOT a completely dry run, far from it in fact.

 

Enjoy the cold as it is here to stay for many a day yet with plenty of opportunities for the white liquid stuff too methinks.   

Edited January 29, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[Dorset_Weather]

I can see it turning nasty in that thread especially with everyone being of an east bias haha.

Really makes me laugh, you see someone forecasting the low to track through Yorkshire then check there location only for it to be Yorkshire. Someone then forecasts Essex to get a dumping from the low, where is there location..........you got it, Essex!

More hopecasters on this forum than amateur forecasters!!!

[dec10snow]

Yep, we seem to have broken raintoday... Good work guys!!

[kent]

Its a known fact that polar lows transform into tropical lows as they cross the M4 corridor.EU.insist on it so as not to deter the tourists.

[Mark Neal.]

Snow flurry, 3/10 on the murr scale, now can see the moon as flakes come down. 

Edited January 29, 2015 by Mark N

[Mapantz]

[Fred Sykes]

Are those showers in wales likely to track towards west wilts?

[kent]

Snow flurry, 3/10 on the murr scale, now can see the moon as flakes come down. 

The moon,gone up to 3.1 now. I thought it was the sun.

[South coaster]

Hoping this polar low can make it all the way to the south coast â„â„â„â„

[Paul T]

Hi guys, a few thoughts from me.

Firstly, we are seeing unstable airflow over Wales currently and this will certainly be pumping up the shower acivity into the North East of the region im the coming hours.

temps: they will stabilise at there current levels, 850s will remain at a similar level until 6am...Anything over 100 mets will be fine as the flow has a base from the North so humidity should be slightly lower keep DPs favorable.

The polar low shortwave is forming a little more than expected. The key with this shortwave for our region is its position.

If it heads too far South East we will miss PPN and draw in warm air from west.

If it tracks along the western side of the uk and turns inland and into the channel it will be most favorable in terms of PPN and cooler local Airmass.

It is an absolute nowcast, but I think it will produce the goods later tonight from the Region over 100 mtrs...

[liam300]

Hoping this polar low can make it all the way to the south coast â„â„â„â„

 

Rain down here I am afraid.. Dew points not low enough..

[Mark Neal.]

Another flurry now, very tame but its good to see. 

[BucksSnow]

How's it looking for bucks guys ?

[Mapantz]

Are those showers in wales likely to track towards west wilts?

They certainly will. But, they are likely to fragment and become patchy. It's a hit & miss affair until more significant PPN arrives during the small hours.

Edited January 29, 2015 by Mapantz

[lfcdude]

Light snow here 

[cazbym]

Rain down here I am afraid.. Dew points not low enough..

This is when I hate living in the South.    It FEELS cold enough!    Damn those dew points.

[Dean E]

Rain down here I am afraid.. Dew points not low enough..

 

You're only about 2 or 3 miles from my location and me plus surrounding areas are reporting dew points of -1c to -2c, plenty low enough my friend! 

[cazbym]

You're only about 2 or 3 miles from my location and me plus surrounding areas are reporting dew points of -1c to -2c, plenty low enough my friend

Which direction?  Sounds promising.

Edited January 29, 2015 by cazbym

[Costa Del Fal]

Heavy Hail has caused problems here in Falmouth tonight. Crash at the Ponsharden roundabout, off the very steep hill. Most of the hail melting but was white over for a time.

[Mapantz]

Heavy Hail has caused problems here in Falmouth tonight. Crash at the Ponsharden roundabout, off the very steep hill. Most of the hail melting but was white over for a time.

You do seem to do well from hail, don't you?

[Wilxy]

sleet just started, temp 2.7°C dp 0.2°C

[Dean E]

Which direction?  Sounds promising.

 

I'm actually in Emsworth, but no one really knows that area apart from us locals.

[Mark Neal.]

0.6c, -1c Dewpoint now after that snow shower.

[lfcdude]

starting to settle now