North West England - Weather Chat

[simshady]

Met warning extended....

Yep....It needs to be a bit further South for me, I'm right on the edge of that warning. A lot of the precipitation charts seem to have my location in a bit of a sweet spot so I'll have to wait and see. Hopefully more extensions to come!

[SparkleS]

Whatever happened to the north winds doth blow and we shall have snow? Lol

[Snow free zone]

Here we go again, the roller coaster is up and running once more.

 

For those of us near the coasts wind direction here is perfect for the showers, but will it be cold enough for snow.  Jury still out for me at the moment but we can but hope .....

 

Thanks for posting that chart from 2004 Alexis, one that will be remembered. Started off as rain, got steadily colder and by 2.30 the turkey was accompanied by heavy snow and an all round decent covering ......

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Im finding it hard to trust anything ATM. After last weeks non event. The charts were saying we would get something but it was all further east. It would be nice to get Apocalyptic snow amounts but i like the cold too so that would do.

[chiffer]

I personally think the temperatures are going to be too positive for snow for a lot of us, even overnight. I hope this changes, if the MetO think it can happen I'd be backing them.

[i luv snow]

Thank you for a reasoned response 

 

I've looked at various parameters and am struggling to see snow away from mostly high ground inland.

 

The short window of opportunity I was talking about earlier still exists when the NW taps into a pool of -8  uppers (Wed Night).

 

uppers.gif wbl.gif freezing level.gif

 

Above the wbfl is at about 100m all well and good for low lying areas. Freezing levels around 200m so while I expect falling snow it will need to be pretty heavy/continuous for low lying accumulations.

 

Throughout the night higher uppers creep in.

 

The next night sees uppers of -5 which aren't good enough I'm afraid.

 

uppers -5.gif freezing level 1.gif wet bulb 1.gif

 

Freezing level for cheshire is 600m on that.

 

The problem is, you're arguing against the Met Office and many seasoned Net-wx members. The last spell saw snow lying fairly widely across the north-west of England - Lancashire/parts of Cumbria/Greater Manchester away from the city centre where there was lots of snow, but little lying. The uppers, as seen above, are just one of many factors that contribute to snow, and the met-office is certainly forecasting snow down to low-levels for fairly widespread area across the north. I'm not saying this is certain, but it is certainly looking fairly likely at this stage, looking at the charts/models. As ever, time will tell!

Edited January 26, 2015 by i luv snow

[i luv snow]

I personally think the temperatures are going to be too positive for snow for a lot of us, even overnight. I hope this changes, if the MetO think it can happen I'd be backing them.

 

They may nudge above freezing (for some) but dew points look much more favourable, even compared to the last spell - this will certainly have a positive effect!

[captaincroc]

This is going to be unusual should it occur.

 

I am so used to looking for snow showers from the NE/E but never coming from the cheshire gap.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs813.gif

 

Derbyshire tend to do well in these situations as does Wales.

 

 

This is why I am suprised the MO haven't included Cheshire etc in their Warnings?  It's a bit IMBY but was wondering why in a northwesterly we have been missed off?

[Dr. Astro]

This is why I am suprised the MO haven't included Cheshire etc in their Warnings?  It's a bit IMBY but was wondering why in a northwesterly we have been missed off?

 

Don't fret yet, I think it will be updated tomorrow to include Cheshire as it's looking like a Streamer to me.

[Weather-history]

A couple of incidents where I saw lying snow from a cold NWly flow

15th February 2000: only lying snow of the whole season, the next morning.

3rd February 2003: snow and hail showers, left a covering for next morning

Edited January 26, 2015 by Weather-history

[Dr. Astro]

For Boston Today... How excited would you be if this was for the UK?

 

“This storm definitely has the capability of being not only historic but also catastrophic,†said Benjamin Sipprell, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Taunton. The weather service issued a blizzard warning in effect from 7 p.m. Monday to 1 a.m. Wednesday.

“People should be making preparations right now,†Sipprell said Sunday.

“This is going to be all-out whiteout snow, crippling everything. We’re highly advising no travel, starting late Monday, going into Tuesday and on into Wednesday.â€

[Backtrack]

Will contribute my thoughts in the form of an exceptionally detailed analysis later. I'm just on my way to university.

[gearbox100]

USA are having an amazing snowstorm if your a snow lover. Hope they keep safe and some of that snow is shared with us.

[julie253]

It needs to be further south for me :-(

[DemonDaz]

Alas I am beginning my offerings to the snow gods as my truffle shuffle snow dance failed last time! Everything looks much better this time though but DP and uppers so here's hoping

[Troubleatmill]

met office update from 10:45 this morning:

 

A cold front is expected to cross the U.K. during Wednesday, introducing much colder conditions to central and northern England in particular. Very strong winds will accentuate the cold. Snow showers are likely in most areas, but especially the north west where significant accumulations are likely to build up, especially in hilly areas.

[Liam J]

The Met warning also says 'away from windward coastal districts' so this means strong winds off the warmer Irish Sea modifying the cold air for locations near to the coast. Guess that's me ruled out as I'm only 2 miles inland! So I'm expecting a wintry mix of hail and sleet maybe wet snow in any heavier ppn, not expecting any accumulation. 

[Troubleatmill]

Hardly.

My location is completely influenced by the north westerly airflow where even here struggled to see more than temporary dustings in the last pm disaster. Despite multiple heavy snow showers the snow kept melting inbetween.

And the met office warning clearly states away from windward costal districts.

The reality is if the met office warning is correct these ares are at risk.

2015-01-28.jpg

I'd be interested to know how many of you are actually in the red zone? Considering cheshire isn't even in any warning zone so no the met office aren't seeing it your way.

 

 

Surely if the met office saw it that way they would say so? i.e they would say snow inland above 200m? 

[DemonDaz]

One thing I noticed on the MetO matrix is that the likely hood has downgraded and the impact upgraded, it could just be not wanting to go into Amber warning territory but as always I guess we will know more tomorrow won't we.

Don't get me wrong I want snow more than anything, I just probably won't get giddy about it till I see it this time and just hope our snow shield generator fails

[Troubleatmill]

Surely if the met office saw it that way they would say so? i.e they would say snow inland above 200m? 

 

The Met warning also says 'away from windward coastal districts' so this means strong winds off the warmer Irish Sea modifying the cold air for locations near to the coast. Guess that's me ruled out as I'm only 2 miles inland! So I'm expecting a wintry mix of hail and sleet maybe wet snow in any heavier ppn, not expecting any accumulation. 

 

Yep could be for me too, one thing that get me though is that dew points are below zero which from a westerly/north westerly is prety rare.

 

Probably the same for you as it is for me in that its the dew points that always kill it for us? so i'm far more hopeful than last week, things went as said from the met office and our dew points were around zero to +1, until the winds veered that is.

 

850-1000's look good too

 

Just want to see a covering, not even bothered if it melts when the warmer sector moves through on Saturday, just want to see a covering for a few hours lol!   

Edited January 26, 2015 by Nicholas B

[Snow free zone]

Same here just to see falling snow would be a start.

 

Can't read the charts as well as some .... were the conditions roughly similar on that dec 2004 chart already posted, this looks almost the same set up.  I just hope we don't get the usual warm air mixing in 

[Troubleatmill]

Same here just to see falling snow would be a start.

Can't read the charts as well as some .... were the conditions roughly similar on that dec 2004 chart already posted, this looks almost the same set up. I just hope we don't get the usual warm air mixing in

500's and 850's look very similar dont they!, cant see dew points from there but presume they must of been negative. I know its been said that we dont need -a million 850 temps to see snow but ive never known snow with above zero dew points, obvioulsy when 850's are really low you cant have positive temp dew points, air is just too dry, hence why everything dries up quickly in really cold weather but in most uk set ups the dew point seems the best indicator of all!, especially this corner we live in , not sure im right with that but the dews is always my first point of call in close set ups Edited January 26, 2015 by Nicholas B

[Barmada Casten]

The Met warning also says 'away from windward coastal districts' so this means strong winds off the warmer Irish Sea modifying the cold air for locations near to the coast. Guess that's me ruled out as I'm only 2 miles inland! So I'm expecting a wintry mix of hail and sleet maybe wet snow in any heavier ppn, not expecting any accumulation. 

 

West Cumbria does suffer, albeit from that major dumping in winter 12/13 which was an extremely rare event. In fact away from high ground Cumbria does'nt fair well, eg/ Carlisle, Cumbria, Keswick etc.

 

Othe poor locations in the NW are the Fylde coast and perhaps the most snowless place in the UK: Lancaster - which last ahd a major snowfall event in 1996!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

This is why I am suprised the MO haven't included Cheshire etc in their Warnings?  It's a bit IMBY but was wondering why in a northwesterly we have been missed off?

 

Any potential 'streamer' looks like it may align too far N for us anyway Ben. Wind vectors aren't progged to be NW enough, more WNW which will send most of the showers into S Manchester, N Cheshire etc etc. Seen it many times before unfortunately. We really do need a straight NW'ly here...as rare as hens teeth in recent years.

[Snow free zone]

West Cumbria does suffer, albeit from that major dumping in winter 12/13 which was an extremely rare event. In fact away from high ground Cumbria does'nt fair well, eg/ Carlisle, Cumbria, Keswick etc.

 

Othe poor locations in the NW are the Fylde coast and perhaps the most snowless place in the UK: Lancaster - which last ahd a major snowfall event in 1996!!

 

Oi the most snowless place in the UK is Preston I drive from Preston to Carnforth for work and believe it or not Lancaster gets more snow than Preston !! that dumping you talk of in 2012/13 gave us a wide berth.

 

But yes you are right, west of the M6 is poor for snow.  

Edited January 26, 2015 by Snow free zone