North West England - Weather Chat

[itsnowjoke]

Hardly.

My location is completely influenced by the north westerly airflow where even here struggled to see more than temporary dustings in the last pm disaster. Despite multiple heavy snow showers the snow kept melting inbetween.

And the met office warning clearly states away from windward costal districts.

The reality is if the met office warning is correct these ares are at risk.

2015-01-28.jpg

I'd be interested to know how many of you are actually in the red zone? Considering cheshire isn't even in any warning zone so no the met office aren't seeing it your way.

subject to change may I add

[Day 10]

Hardly.

My location is completely influenced by the north westerly airflow where even here struggled to see more than temporary dustings in the last pm disaster. Despite multiple heavy snow showers the snow kept melting inbetween.

And the met office warning clearly states away from windward costal districts.

The reality is if the met office warning is correct these ares are at risk.

2015-01-28.jpg

I'd be interested to know how many of you are actually in the red zone? Considering cheshire isn't even in any warning zone so no the met office aren't seeing it your way.

This is just and early warning, and is nothing like the last cold spell we had. I would be surprised if these warnings (provided the trend doesn't wane) do not upgrade and/or expand nearer the time. There may also be further chances after weds/thurs. This is a completely different setup.

[itsnowjoke]

This is just and early warning, and is nothing like the last cold spell we had. I would be surprised if these warnings (provided the trend doesn't wane) do not upgrade and/or expand nearer the time. There may also be further chances after weds/thurs. This is a completely different setup.

Here here if carlsberg did comebacks.....

[Jan]

Hardly.

My location is completely influenced by the north westerly airflow where even here struggled to see more than temporary dustings in the last pm disaster. Despite multiple heavy snow showers the snow kept melting inbetween.

And the met office warning clearly states away from windward costal districts.

The reality is if the met office warning is correct these ares are at risk.

2015-01-28.jpg

I'd be interested to know how many of you are actually in the red zone? Considering cheshire isn't even in any warning zone so no the met office aren't seeing it your way.

Well that's me out then, good job I didn't get excited!

[Cheese Rice]

This is just and early warning, and is nothing like the last cold spell we had. I would be surprised if these warnings (provided the trend doesn't wane) do not upgrade and/or expand nearer the time. There may also be further chances after weds/thurs. This is a completely different setup.

And that will be great if it does upgrade but facts are facts the Meto warning does not cover the majority of the highly populated GM & Liverpool/Cheshire/costal districts. But according to this thread the met office is going for a snow fest.

I'm not a massive fan of the computer generated 5 day forecast but they are indicative of the upper profile conditions.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643123

The Met office model clearly indicates a rain scenario for the Manchester. I think it will be wintry but not snowy.

[itsnowjoke]

Well that's me out then, good job I didn't get excited!

Jan all subject to change

[Day 10]

And that will be great if it does upgrade but facts are facts the Meto warning does not cover the majority of the highly populated GM & Liverpool/Cheshire/costal districts. But according to this thread the met office is going for a snow fest.

I'm not a massive fan of the computer generated 5 day forecast but they are indicative of the upper profile conditions.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643123

The Met office model clearly indicates a rain scenario for the Manchester. I think it will be wintry but not snowy.

Snow is notoriously difficult to predict in this country, so the met office are rightly being cautious at this stage. I think they would rather be in a position to expand or upgrade the warnings rather than dive in feet first too early and plaster the uk with silly yellow and amber alerts.

[Miamay]

I for one am looking forward for an interesting week ahead with the forcasts shown. Any snow here will be welcome however little the amount.

Edited January 25, 2015 by Miamay

[Troubleatmill]

This thread is like last week all over again.

I've looked at the upper air profile and I'm afraid there's a very short opportunity of snowfall when a brief pool of -8 uppers push in. But for the most part it looks wintry not snowy.

Accumulations reserved for 200m asl, temporary accumulations to low ground though mostly transient in nature. Even then well inland perhaps Manchester area could see a covering.

Sorry but incorrect as of where we are today, dew points are negative , WBFL is low, 850-1000 temps are ok. the opposite is true i suppose, there are some warmer sectors in the flow but this is by far our best opportunity for snow in low lying areas barring maybe anyone who lives in a coastal town can change of course between now and then for better or worse. Ps bbc forecast on website you linked is renowed for being...well err...crap Edited January 25, 2015 by Nicholas B

[Day 10]

Sorry but incorrect as of where we are today, dew points are negative , WBFL is low, 850-1000 temps are ok. the opposite is true i suppose, there are some warmer sectors in the flow but this is by far our best opportunity for snow in low lying areas barring maybe anyone who lives in a coastal town can change of course between now and then for better or worse.

Totally agree!

[robbo88]

I wasn't forecast snow last week, I was only forecast cloud. And I had snow falling and settling for 4 days in a row!

[Cheshire Freeze]

And that will be great if it does upgrade but facts are facts the Meto warning does not cover the majority of the highly populated GM & Liverpool/Cheshire/costal districts. But according to this thread the met office is going for a snow fest.

I'm not a massive fan of the computer generated 5 day forecast but they are indicative of the upper profile conditions.http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643123

The Met office model clearly indicates a rain scenario for the Manchester. I think it will be wintry but not snowy.

Pretty sure you came on here last week with some grand theory on how the uppers were only conducive to rain or sleet. In reality most of the stuff that fell was SNOW. I just didn't see enough of it to actually lay...which at 55m asl has always been the case here...bar the exceptions of 2009 and 2010 obviously (where precipitation intensity didn't preclude any of it settling).

[Jan]

Jan all subject to change

but I still promise not to get excited 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Maz]

For my area, only slightly elevated but with a few hills to the west to shelter from the moderating surface flow of the sea, a marginal West or WNW, tend to be the best bet. We normally get high precipitation, so at least are in with a shout.

Once the winds turn NW the anvils normally pass to the south. North through East, are cold, but tucked under the Pennines we are often the driest spot in England, or so it seems!

So a Polar westerly is exciting for me, especially in statistically the coldest part of winter. Another 7 days of snow cover like last week, and sledging chances for my 2 year old (and me!) would do me fine. If it doesn't happen, no big thing.

Just don't have the winds a little to far north of west so the shower clouds are visible but never come closer, that's a bit too much!

Edited January 25, 2015 by Maz

[Thunder Snow]

Well the 18z has snow for me, if everything fails into place for 15 doubt it lol

[Cheese Rice]

Pretty sure you came on here last week with some grand theory on how the uppers were only conducive to rain or sleet. In reality most of the stuff that fell was SNOW. I just didn't see enough of it to actually lay...which at 55m asl has always been the case here...bar the exceptions of 2009 and 2010 obviously (where precipitation intensity didn't preclude any of it settling).

 

I was completely correct in my assertion last week that uppers were not conductive of low lying snow, stressing wintry rather than snowy potential. 

 

I'm not sure where you are going with this because I kept continually stressing that point and I was completely correct.

 

Where are all the pictures of low lying areas seeing lying snow?

 

It was marginal even in Yorkshire with wintry deposits to lower levels. 

 

Its disappointing to see a minority on here taking an authoritative role against anyone that goes against a snow agenda. Its a meteorology forum not a snow only forum. 

[Day 10]

Well the pub run is a forecasters nightmare!!

[robbo88]

[quote name="Cheese Rice" post="3139524" timestamp="

 

Where are all the pictures of low lying areas seeing lying snow?

[cheshire snow]

Hardly.

My location is completely influenced by the north westerly airflow where even here struggled to see more than temporary dustings in the last pm disaster. Despite multiple heavy snow showers the snow kept melting inbetween.

And the met office warning clearly states away from windward costal districts.

The reality is if the met office warning is correct these ares are at risk.

https://f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images

tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gif 2015-01-28.jpg

I'd be interested to know how many of you are actually in the red zone? Considering cheshire isn't even in any warning zone so no the met office aren't seeing it your way.

I stand by your superior knowledge and bow down to you

As you seem to know the climate very well for MBY there is

No more to add, perhaps you could give me a daily update

Just like the Met office.

do you know what I dont know why I am bothering with this

fellow north westerners I hope the snow comes to you, but for

now I am done with the whole thing

C.S

[Day 10]

I stand by your superior knowledge and bow down to you

As you seem to know the climate very well for MBY there is

No more to add, perhaps you could give me a daily update

Just like the Met office.

do you know what I dont know why I am bothering with this

fellow north westerners I hope the snow comes to you, but for

now I am done with the whole thing

C.S

See you tmr then

[Cheese Rice]

Both pictures from last weeks snow at 150m.

Not the lowest elevation. But lower than you.

 

I actually said temporary accumulations to lower levels possible -inland- providing there are heavy enough showers. 

 

And tbf your location is generally perceived as high ground.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

This thread is like last week all over again.

I've looked at the upper air profile and I'm afraid there's a very short opportunity of snowfall when a brief pool of -8 uppers push in. But for the most part it looks wintry not snowy.

Accumulations reserved for 200m asl, temporary accumulations to low ground though mostly transient in nature. Even then well inland perhaps Manchester area could see a covering.

i disagree, the dew points are lower than the last cold snap and the ground temps look just about the right side of marginal for the coasts.

[feb1991blizzard]

And that will be great if it does upgrade but facts are facts the Meto warning does not cover the majority of the highly populated GM & Liverpool/Cheshire/costal districts. But according to this thread the met office is going for a snow fest.

I'm not a massive fan of the computer generated 5 day forecast but they are indicative of the upper profile conditions.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643123

The Met office model clearly indicates a rain scenario for the Manchester. I think it will be wintry but not snowy.

 

 

You are just talking about the Wed / Thurs event though surely, anything the weekend up until nearly the middle of the week after falling from the sky will be snow although admittedly will be harder to come by as the direct Northerly will provide the wishbone effect.

[SparkleS]

Blimey i guess we are getting the back end of theres! http://edition.cnn.com/2015/01/25/us/weather-storm/

[pip22]

Blimey i guess we are getting the back end of theres! http://edition.cnn.com/2015/01/25/us/weather-storm/

Yes its the same low pressure that left the US East Coast is heading our way. I heard it dumped 3 feet of snow!!

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

 

Put on pressure chart ^^

Edited January 25, 2015 by pip22