Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards

[Chris K]

Avoiding the tendency on this thread to concentrate on the breakdown to something milder, this is a superb chart at 144.  Enjoy it folks, think about what December and early January served up and savour it!!! 

 

 

 

Indeed a nice chart overall - but a mostly dry picture away from some Northern areas and Eastern coasts (at this point), and perhaps the SE corner if it shifts more NW.

 

Of course surprises can crop up (potential slider down the line if it was more favorably positioned?) and it will certainly be pretty nippy!

 

Not to take precipitation charts at that range seriously...but you get my point. If it's dry, I hope it's sunny and not raw and grey...

 

Edited January 30, 2015 by Chris K

[Yarmy]

Very positive AO and NAO. Very cold UK. That Atlantic ridge is a plucky little fellow.

[TEITS]

Latest fax chart will bring joy to those in E Anglia/SE.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif?3

 

Trough bringing snow showers on a NE,ly.

 

Looks to me as though the cold spell will continue until 8th Feb at the very least.

[Ice Day]

-8 uppers still over EA/SE at 186, an upgrade over the 12z.  Baby steps and all that, I think we're really heading into very interesting territory!

 

 

[Johnp]

Snowy breakdown possible on this one

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015013018/gfs-0-198.png?18

 

with cold air following on.  In fact, wouldn't take much to head in to slider territory.

[tight isobar]

based on what?...

the gfs 12z might be mild in deep fi, but upto t240 it has support from the noaa 8-14 day anomaly charts, it has support from the previous gfs runs AND it has support from the ecm 00z AND 12z... so the gfs around t240 is not an outlier.

well quite that..its what's before you in graphic. However I'll alude further to your quote" (based on what) when my pre-quote" after the 00z suite. Regards.

[Frosty.]

According to 18z gfs it's a very cold week ahead, especially for those areas with a snow cover and more fresh snow on the way, especially to the far north and down across west and east coastal areas but by tuesdsy as winds turn more NEly, the north sea snow showers will come well inland as far west as the eastern upslopes of the pennines. It's a very cold spell coming up, entrenched cold with sub zero nights and daily maxima struggling to get much above freezing and over snow cover the daytime temps stay sub zero all next week.

Edited January 30, 2015 by Frosty.

[chionomaniac]

I know as a nation we are focused on cutting down obesity, but it is getting ridiculous now. Just look, is this not the thinnest Scandi High ever?

 

 

[bluearmy]

I know as a nation we are focused on cutting down obesity, but it is getting ridiculous now. Just look, is this not the thinnest Scandi High ever?

 

 

Rtavn1741.gif

Not even a sausage ed!

[Captain Shortwave]

I know as a nation we are focused on cutting down obesity, but it is getting ridiculous now. Just look, is this not the thinnest Scandi High ever?

 

 

Rtavn1741.gif

Who wants their name in front of the chipolata high  

The Navgem again has an easterly window through the middle of the week, though not as good.

[knocker]

But you the Azores eggs over easy

 

[bluearmy]

Just noticed that the ECM ens at day 5 has gone from 1 cluster on yesterday's 12z run to 6 this morning and 5 on the latest suite. Methinks we are at a crossroads on the latter part of next week.

[chionomaniac]

Just noticed that the ECM ens at day 5 has gone from 1 cluster on yesterday's 12z run to 6 this morning and 5 on the latest suite. Methinks we are at a crossroads on the latter part of next week.

What was the one cluster ..... because that's more than likely the one on the way out of the picture....?

[Mucka]

Just noticed that the ECM ens at day 5 has gone from 1 cluster on yesterday's 12z run to 6 this morning and 5 on the latest suite. Methinks we are at a crossroads on the latter part of next week.

 

Yes clear split showing for London later though dubious how many of the colder runs are true Easterlies rather than UK highs.

 

[tight isobar]

What was the one cluster ..... because that's more than likely the one on the way out of the picture....?

spaghetti plot..#uncertainty

[mountain shadow]

Latest fax chart will bring joy to those in E Anglia/SE.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif?3

 

Trough bringing snow showers on a NE,ly.

 

Looks to me as though the cold spell will continue until 8th Feb at the very least.

Given the pressure building in from the West, I suspect that trough would be mainly a band of cloud, perhaps a bit of graupel.

[pages]

great 18z ensembles 

 

 

Edited January 30, 2015 by pages

[pages]

My favorite anyone fancy some sub minus 15 uppers

[SE Blizzards]

great 18z ensembles 

 

 

 

Yes, some very nice ENS members tonight. Probably the coldest set of the Winter so far out to Day 8.

 

And it's not often you see a Day 8 mean PPN chart like this either..

 

 

I have a feeling this cold spell could last a lot longer than some people think.

Edited January 30, 2015 by SE Blizzards

[Ice Day]

I have a feeling this cold spell could last a lot longer than some people think.

 

Spot on, this has been evident since early this week.  Each day, the cold spell has continued to lengthen and the longer it can do so the better chance of something even more severe cropping up.  It's been a superb week of model watching!

[pages]

This would be interesting

 

[tight isobar]

Plots' outer Atlantic/...uncertainty looking ahead..IMO.

[PolarWarsaw]

Spot on, this has been evident since early this week.  Each day, the cold spell has continued to lengthen and the longer it can do so the better chance of something even more severe cropping up.  It's been a superb week of model watching!

 

Absolutely, not forgetting this cold snap suddenly appeared from virtually nowhere and originally looked like a 'toppler' according to a lot of members. It's already at day 3 or 4 and we have another week or so of frosty weather (if not widespread snow) - which will leave us at a 12 day or so cold spell. Pretty good for any winters and to be honest, we'd only need another spell of snow in that time to match the winters of a few years back, which were colder but relatively snowless for my part of the Midlands. 

 

Winter doesn't show it's head until Mid-Jan onwards these days (or so it seems) and since then, this winter has been good - with a good chance of snow events to chase and some good synoptics. A much better winter this year, very little mild and not that much in the way of low pressure to be honest - a decent Feb and we will be looking at a 'reasonable' winter overall. 

[SE Blizzards]

Spot on, this has been evident since early this week.  Each day, the cold spell has continued to lengthen and the longer it can do so the better chance of something even more severe cropping up.  It's been a superb week of model watching!

 

Yep, and even some of those recent ENS members that have been showing 'milder' 850 temps have mostly been down to HP sat over the top of us - which would undoubtedly mean it would be cold at the surface. Same applies to the 18Z Ens too by the looks of things.

 

The outlook looks like a cold one to me, with not much sign of any change for at least the next week, maybe two.

 

Edit: Pert 4 has lost the plot!

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=4&ech=348&mode=0&carte=0

Edited January 30, 2015 by SE Blizzards

[pages]

Yes, some very nice ENS members tonight. Probably the coldest set of the Winter so far out to Day 8.

 

And it's not often you see a Day 8 mean PPN chart like this either..

 

 

I have a feeling this cold spell could last a lot longer than some people think.

Just got very interesting around 330hr half the ensembles split the vortex and a few do this....

Have they picked up a new signal? lets hope so