Jump to content

Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards


Recommended Posts

12z GFS was on the mild side of the ens lol, though the control did go with it,

 

MT8_London_ens.png

 

If it was the Op and Control on the colder side of the ensembles we'd all be saying support them because they are of a higher resolution to the Ensembles. The fact both of them are following each other almost exactly is a little worrying.

 

Some continued support for an Easterly middle next week onwards, but also growing support for something less favourable.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 2.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Short answer   The short answer to your question is yes, the presence of low pressure (at higher altitudes, being coincident with very cold upper air), makes the air more unstable, as the gradient i

Welcome to "Celebrity Model Discussion". Let's go out to our reporter, who has managed to corner the miracle man himself, Jesus Christ, for his thoughts: Reporter : Thanks for joining us Jesus, first

If people will insist on analysing the 850mb temperatures every single run here's something to bear in mind when viewing the output for the upcoming period - -6c is a baseline figure to put snow/rain

Posted Images

If it was the Op and Control on the colder side of the ensembles we'd all be saying support them because they are of a higher resolution to the Ensembles. The fact both of them are following each other almost exactly is a little worrying.

 

Some continued support for an Easterly middle next week onwards, but also growing support for something less favourable.

 

 

I do agree to an extent although as ever, a few consistent runs are needed to firm up on anything.

Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM 120 postage stamps - anyone got the link? :)

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!   :)

 

can anyone remind us what the GFS Op and Control are high resolution until? Is it t240 or T144?

 

GFS operational is high resolution up to 240 hrs since its upgrade,GEFS ensembles resolution drops after 192 hrs ,but i think the control run has the same resolution right through its run.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

pluim_06260_0_12_60.png

 

A fairly obvious split there but taking a look at the wind directions for De Bilt:

 

eps_pluim_dd_06260.png

 

The Easterly suggestion is certainly a minor one beyond next weekend. That is not uncommon preceding an Easterly setup (Feb '12 springs to mind), and we should be wary that in the past few days this spell has been extended from ending Tuesday to now not ending until Saturday/Sunday next week (temperature wise at least) - however at face value right now the most dominant wind type beyond day 10 is Westerly overall. Not that this means it's necessarily a mild Westerly.

 

SK

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

interesting that ian mentions scandi ridge clusters from the 12z eps because this run finally brings our trough back by mid month.  that run looking very similar to the way the extended ens picked out the current solution on the anomalies.

 

noting that the gefs also bring low anomalies later in week 2 and we can perhaps see where we go beyond the MLB. of course, no telling that the MLB extends across the country and that the euro trough doesnt hold sway for longer. (or even that the MLB takes hold further north to allow an easterly flow of sorts). anyway, a return to the trough by mid month is on both gefs and ecm eps anomalies on the most recent run. 

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

interesting that ian mentions scandi ridge clusters from the 12z eps because this run finally brings our trough back by mid month.  that run looking very similar to the way the extended ens picked out the current solution on the anomalies.

 

noting that the gefs also bring low anomalies later in week 2 and we can perhaps see where we go beyond the MLB. of course, no telling that the MLB extends across the country and that the euro trough doesnt hold sway for longer. (or even that the MLB takes hold further north to allow an easterly flow of sorts). anyway, a return to the trough by mid month is on both gefs and ecm eps anomalies on the most recent run.

As in rinse and repeat ? Trough to our South with the Atlantic cut off ?
Link to post
Share on other sites

BREAKING NEWS . . .

I'm been a bit Naughty doing this lol but hey ho it's a weather forum and we need positivity in this place to fuel our obsessive compulsive behaviour about somthing we have absolutely no control over WATSO-EVA !!

Interesting from the big man LOL

Perhaps their extended is cryptic and the winds come from the east for southern Britain

 

Towards the middle of February there is a possibility that the more unsettled conditions will shift north, becoming more settled in the south.

 

Does not say where the wind is coming from :cold:

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS 12z...mild outliers..

 

based on what?...

the gfs 12z might be mild in deep fi, but upto t240 it has support from the noaa 8-14 day anomaly charts, it has support from the previous gfs runs AND it has support from the ecm 00z AND 12z... so the gfs around t240 is not an outlier.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

A fairly obvious split there but taking a look at the wind directions for De Bilt:

 

eps_pluim_dd_06260.png

 

The Easterly suggestion is certainly a minor one beyond next weekend. That is not uncommon preceding an Easterly setup (Feb '12 springs to mind), and we should be wary that in the past few days this spell has been extended from ending Tuesday to now not ending until Saturday/Sunday next week (temperature wise at least) - however at face value right now the most dominant wind type beyond day 10 is Westerly overall. Not that this means it's necessarily a mild Westerly.

 

SK

 

Hi SK

With the ridge building through that region though wouldn't we expect the easterly influence there to be a minor signal?

Could it be the same graph for London would actually show a stronger Easterly influence?

Link to post
Share on other sites

http://old.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!   :)

 

 

GFS operational is high resolution up to 240 hrs since its upgrade,GEFS ensembles resolution drops after 192 hrs ,but i think the control run has the same resolution right through its run.

Thank you.

Link to post
Share on other sites

So let me get this straight, we are talking about an easterly poss mid month and not the one that may turn ne/e next week?

It's all pie in the sky at the minute . But there's a a portion of ensembles and operational runs across the board that is toying with the idea of an easterly next wk. it depends on everything coming together , it's more than feeseble though . If the Iberian low depends somewhat , then that will help not only strengthen the high , but give the opportunity of a stronger push from the East . Along with throwing small scale features North into the flow .

As always it's in the minority for now , but it's certainly got some meat on the bones.

Been February , it's the the month in the winter where statistically the Atlantic is at its quietest in the three winter months . I genuinely do not see an Atlantic driven feb . Seasonal Wave lengths begin to widen through feb , the westerly natural flow over the polar regions driving the vortex also begins to loosen somewhat . So all to play for really moving forward . Certainly feeling better about things !

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

based on what?...

the gfs 12z might be mild in deep fi, but upto t240 it has support from the noaa 8-14 day anomaly charts, it has support from the previous gfs runs AND it has support from the ecm 00z AND 12z... so the gfs around t240 is not an outlier.

Based on the definition of an outlier that people have been using on weather forums for over ten years (i.e standing out from the majority of the ensemble set)

  • Like 8
Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi SK

With the ridge building through that region though wouldn't we expect the easterly influence there to be a minor signal?

Could it be the same graph for London would actually show a stronger Easterly influence?

 

Indeed possibly so, hence the caveats attached, but you would suspect (unless approaching from a very unusual angle) that any Easterly would set up across the low countries at the same time as it would across the UK.

 

But anyway all speculation without seeing the full suite and as stated, not uncommon before any Easterly incursion :)

 

SK

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

A shufty at tonight's anomalies.

 

They are all on the same playing field with some slight variation in detail. Low pressure Canada/Greenland/Pole area and they all have strengthening of the SW/NE orientation of the Azores ridge and about average temps and tending to support the ops analysis.

Charts weatherbell

post-12275-0-64969800-1422656217_thumb.g

post-12275-0-30539100-1422656231_thumb.p

post-12275-0-80565100-1422656238_thumb.p

post-12275-0-40776100-1422656439_thumb.g

Edited by knocker
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...