Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards

[tight isobar]

I have mentioned this two or three times already this evening and I.F. has alluded to threat of significant snowfall for the more western areas 

perhaps. As you say though the track at +t72 is far from resolved. If it did take a more east southeast track along the channel then apart from 

the risk of widespread heavy snowfall it would also force the high to ridge further north and draw in an even colder stronger easterly. 

The Euro models have it much further west and south where as to my eyes the GFS has it much further north as it turns and further east/

south east.

agreed.as regards this particular.. However scapegoated) again highliting uncertainty beyond current synopsis is/mobility/easterly component!!" Mass uncertainty. ATM..the bubble will burst.. But which way will the droplets fall.??!"

[mulzy]

The ECM run might not be great after day 6 but JMA still thinks a Easterly of sorts is still on the cards...

 

[Troubleatmill]

I'm sure knocker was talking about the GEM

Knocker has weatherbell so will see the ECM a shortwhile before us i think, GEFS ensembles look split three ways past next weekend, really could swing anyway! Cold

easterly, HP centred over us or typical british fare unsettled the further north you go, dryer to the south, quite a way for this one to be sorted i think

Edited January 30, 2015 by Nicholas B

[Mucka]

JMA sticking with the Easterly

 

 

Overall I would say honours even tonight. No breakdown in the output as such but no raging Easterly either. The middle ground is a UK high, cold but not especially exiciting except for possible hard frosts and foggy ice days.

We will know a lot more by this time tomorrow.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The ECM run might not be great after day 6 but JMA still thinks a Easterly of sorts is still on the cards...

 

A respected model by MetO?  Is this what they may take on board?  Be interesting if some analysis was run on this model

 

Got to say a proper easterly for me is ghost chasing

 

BFTP

[bluearmy]

Going back to joe B , he has been trailing a February evolution where the west coast ridge stretches up to meet the building mid Siberian ridge and the two features then curl around over Greenland to cut off what is left of the Canadian segment over n America. From our perspective, that would mean blocking around Greenland and I assume, a vortex remnant over Scandinavia/nw Russia. That last bit is conjecture. a greeny ridge would mean the jet is diverted far enough south to keep us on the cold side in any case. A few of the gefs are beginning to sing from that particular hymn sheet this evening. No idea if any ECM clusters on that track. Maybe nick l can fill us in later.

[knocker]

Knockers powers are on the wane. Joan The Wad will have to be summoned. ECM from T144 > T222 mainly light NW/N from the Azores ridge with the Atlantic redirected to the side entrance but it's sneaking in.. Temps rising gradually.

Edited January 30, 2015 by knocker

[weather eater]

It would appear to me that the upshot of every single run across the big three is no matter what route is taken to get there we end up with a large HP in the western approaches, all routes lead to the same place for us.

[chris55]

Well whatever transpires, lets hope we can get some snow on the ground for those who haven't seen any yet as we move through Monday -Tuesday next week, then a period of high pressure looks likely with some very cold nights for the bulk of England and Wales ( Scotland is already freezing lol). Then we move into the unknown.....do we pull in an easterly or does the Atlantic slowly topple the high and introduce a milder feel. Either way a very nice period of model watching.

Edited January 30, 2015 by chris55

[Neilsouth]

Remember though, it only takes atleast 24hrs of an easterly to cause chaos, hell it can just be an overnight affair and cause chaos! However let's just hope the models don't further sink that high pressure any further south

[blizzard81]

Knockers powers are on the wane. Joan The Wad will have to be summoned. ECM from T144 > T222 mainly light NW/N from the Azores ridge with the Atlantic redirected to the side entrance but it's sneaking in.. Temps rising gradually.

Well, KNOCK me down! Will await the ensembles before taking the op's word for it.

[Man With Beard]

Going back to the GEFS, 8 ensembles members still going for good easterlies/north-easterlies at T216. In comparison, 6 members introduce something that could be realistically called milder for southern parts, a couple more for northern parts. ECM op still firmly in the milder set by the end. But getting the extent of blocking near Iceland at T144 is still very questionable, and how that is resolved affects the latter charts:

[Gowon]

Knocker has weatherbell so will see the ECM a shortwhile before us i think, GEFS ensembles look split three ways past next weekend, really could swing anyway! Cold

easterly, HP centred over us or typical british fare unsettled the further north you go, dryer to the south, quite a way for this one to be sorted i think

 

Fair enough...

[J10]

Latest Alps Snow Blog here https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4871-alps-weather-forecast-30-january-2015/

 

As usual contains synoptic charts for the week ahead,

Edited January 30, 2015 by J10

[tight isobar]

GFS 12z...mild outliers..

[Hotspur62]

As Polar Climate mentioned about hour ago the Big 3 models are very similar out to 120.However,they all show a too strong a Vortex that seems not sure whether to move East or West and won't allow Heights to move Northwards which really doesn't help us much going forward. I thought I read somewhere(it may have been Joe B but not sure) there was a trend for it to move towards Siberian side as Feb progressed and this is what is required if we are going to get a decent shot of a proper cold spell. As it stands, and whether we like it or not, the favourite(6/4 as opposed to 5/2 for Easterly setting up lol) is  for the High in Mid Atlantic just to nudge in from the West to keep the UK in a dry and frosty regime for this time next week. However, that is a long time off and hopefully things will change for the better(from a cold & snow perspective) 

[Whether Idle]

ECM 120 postage stamps - anyone got the link?

[Frosty.]

I found the dream perturbation from the GEFS 12z, talk about reloads, it's sensational for coldies...P1 rules supreme this evening.

[MR EXTREMES]

The ECM run might not be great after day 6 but JMA still thinks a Easterly of sorts is still on the cards...

 

Yet the video u posted earlier had the jma scrapping the easterly.

[MR EXTREMES]

Yet the video u posted earlier had the jma scrapping the easterly.

Sorry I think it was truthspeaker the video he posted the jma was against the easterly and wanted to bring back milder air!

The cfs was the opposite with easterly!.

So this could be why knocker does not buy into the other models and there ideas for a Easterly certainly the models are reluctant to drop a Easterly! .

[bluearmy]

Looking at ECM 240 isn't without possibilities BA...too far out for too much analysis but would be lovely to see a Greeny Siberia/Scandi ridge join...would give us some lovely end Feb synoptics...huge vortex to overcome though over Canada..or is it a weakened vortex ready to fall?

Greenland/scandi/Siberian ridge? Nope , I didn't say that although I agree would be lovely. Mind you, so would tomorrow's lottery numbers and I've probably got more chance with that!

[bluearmy]

Remember the ops played with an easterly with a build of heights over scandi during the last cold spell. given the stronger euro troughing this time, I'd say it's a stronger possibility via CAA via the trough as opposed to a convincing scandi block.

[winterof79]

Going back to joe B , he has been trailing a February evolution where the west coast ridge stretches up to meet the building mid Siberian ridge and the two features then curl around over Greenland to cut off what is left of the Canadian segment over n America. From our perspective, that would mean blocking around Greenland and I assume, a vortex remnant over Scandinavia/nw Russia. That last bit is conjecture. a greeny ridge would mean the jet is diverted far enough south to keep us on the cold side in any case. A few of the gefs are beginning to sing from that particular hymn sheet this evening. No idea if any ECM clusters on that track. Maybe nick l can fill us in later.

Not too dissimilar to this then BA

[Frosty.]

With a lot of the focus on what happens after the arctic spell, I think it's time we looked at the reliable timeframe on tonight's Ecm 12z which shows arctic winds sweeping south tomorrow with scattered snow flurries / showers and although inland areas look dry and bright on Sunday and Monday, it will be very cold and icy with sharp frosts early and late, notice the change on Tuesday with more of a NEly flow drawing snow showers well inland across the eastern half of the UK with significant accumulations in places. I feel there is still a lot uncertainty about the end of next week so in the meantime I suggest the coldies among us make the most of this icy cold blast from the arctic circle and hope we get some luck with the further outlook. :-)

Edited January 30, 2015 by Frosty.

[chris55]

12z GFS was on the mild side of the ens lol, though the control did go with it,