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Paul

Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards

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UkMo and GFS look good for cold this evening thru too next weekend now looking very likely.

Most interest for me is the surface pressure charts. A nice occluded front moving South East behind the low currently looking to effect North wales thru to Nofolk and all areas below that track. Obviously much can change but its at least something to watch.

What most seasoned posters will realise, is that the first rule is to get the cold over us, then there will be opportunities for Snow. Sometimes these are troughs sometimes slider lows and sometimes just transient snow as we get a breakdown. We now have the Cold and one or all of those will now come into play, The outlook is cold too right thru to the end of the month so more and more opportunities ahead. 

So far the models have indicated a mainly North of Uk event with Snow widespread Above the Midlands in general, now they may be hinting at something further South making it a UK wide event but over a week. 

The jet stream looks to stay right side of UK thru out, may be a direct North to South run towards end of next week which could help instigate some instability it a positive way. Even when we are wrong side of the jet we are under possible ridge of high meaning nothing particularly warm at ground level and with warmer uppers may be just an opportunity to get out and make the most of the white stuff that after hard frosts may just enough to prolong the enjoyment. After last years winter these model runs are a dream and will bring many surprises to many if they are anything near accurate.

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The ECM isn't going for an easterly flow. At T156 there is a light NE from the extended Azores ridge By T192 this has extended further bringing mainly westerlies and then the HP slips south allowing the Atlantic in through the front door and increasing temperatures.

The ECM not due out yet so I think your remarks are wide of the mark.

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The ECM isn't going for an easterly flow. At T156 there is a light NE from the extended Azores ridge By T192 this has extended further bringing mainly westerlies and then the HP slips south allowing the Atlantic in through the front door and increasing temperatures.

Where have you seen the 12z ECM?

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That's the beauty of the Cornish mine fairy. Their mystic powers.

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Meanwhile, back in the 'real' world, the 12z GEFS seem keen for an easterly at day 6 (and beyond on many perturbations)

 

gens-21-1-144.png

Edited by mulzy

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I'm sure knocker was talking about the GEM

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I think his talking about one of the ecm runs yesterday.

Whatever it was I bet he typed it with a smile on his face. (Only joking Knocker). :-) Edited by Paul_1978

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The flow does not need to be strong for convective showers to penetrate well in land and mid-week onward looks tasty for the East

Rtavn1388.gif

Rtavn1382.gif

 

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Rtavn1508.gif

Apart from coastal counties that would be dry as a bone inland as the model shows. Plenty of time for that to change though.

Sunday morning there are opportunities over eastern england and into east Anglia and the southeast perhaps.

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Well "small" steps..then big leaps.this feature alone modeled IS going to prove a head scratch' within fruition.let alone +144hrs and the like.

Current stageing has it bay Biscay bound.although skirting southwestern parts (to extent) but nailed ITS not with a slight but reasonable assumption of migrate/diverge east/south east! With perhaps both major forecast headache' but more important dramatic implicated weather impact/effect...I've scape-goated this particular' for reasons... The current fork in the road is far from exacted' with regards current synopsis!

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Well seeing as the little slider looks to be going to far west for any interest on Monday, eyes on the little disturbance potentially moving south Monday evening!

 

Recm721.gif

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I notice on ECM 12z 96h that subtle change in direction of flow. Something to watch re any showers moving inland.

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The GEFS are of great hemispheric interest. Methinks if this is what the 12z suite is knocking out, I can't wait for the 18z.

Given that he ens are usually slow to get aboard big changes, something mut be afoot. Perhaps joe B might be right after all.............

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The GEFS are of great hemispheric interest. Methinks if this is what the 12z suite is knocking out, I can't wait for the 18z.

Given that he ens are usually slow to get aboard big changes, something mut be afoot. Perhaps joe B might be right after all.............

Could you please enlighten us thanks.

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The GEFS are of great hemispheric interest. Methinks if this is what the 12z suite is knocking out, I can't wait for the 18z.

Given that he ens are usually slow to get aboard big changes, something mut be afoot. Perhaps joe B might be right after all.............

I watch Joe B every Saturday on his Sat clips that are free to the public and so far this winter he has been pretty accurate. I know he is specifically talking about North America but am interested in what he has said. I must have missed something. What might he be right about?

 

Apologies if in wrong thread. Sorry lol!

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Well "small" steps..then big leaps.this feature alone modeled IS going to prove a head scratch' within fruition.let alone +144hrs and the like.

Current stageing has it bay Biscay bound.although skirting southwestern parts (to extent) but nailed ITS not with a slight but reasonable assumption of migrate/diverge east/south east! With perhaps both major forecast headache' but more important dramatic implicated weather impact/effect...I've scape-goated this particular' for reasons... The current fork in the road is far from exacted' with regards current synopsis!

I have mentioned this two or three times already this evening and I.F. has alluded to threat of significant snowfall for the more western areas 

perhaps. As you say though the track at +t72 is far from resolved. If it did take a more east southeast track along the channel then apart from 

the risk of widespread heavy snowfall it would also force the high to ridge further north and draw in an even colder stronger easterly. 

The Euro models have it much further west and south where as to my eyes the GFS has it much further north as it turns and further east/

south east.

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The GEFS are of great hemispheric interest. Methinks if this is what the 12z suite is knocking out, I can't wait for the 18z.

Given that he ens are usually slow to get aboard big changes, something mut be afoot. Perhaps joe B might be right after all.............

BA......expand and enlighten please

 

BFTP

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I dont post on here often but Can I ask a genuine quesiton?

 

I respect Ian F and any other forecaster pro or not who has more knowledge than I do. But why on earth is everyone going nuts becuase he and the Met think that this will break down in mid Feb when that is 2 weeks away and no one, Not the pro's, not the semi pros or anyone else can really say this WILL happen in mid Feb.

 

We arent even sure whats going to happen in 3 days time let alone 2 weeks....There are so many possible evolutions no one can tell me they know this will happen...

So whats the answer? Just talk about whats coming in the next 120 hours or so and ignore everything else?

No body is making any clear statements about what WILL happen, people are suggesting what might be the most likely outcome based on current data.

Surely thats what forecasting and this forum is all about?

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Hmmmm.... I had hoped the ECM would have been more bullish in supporting a scandi HP tonight as most of the other models have tended this way, even including the half decent looking UKMET after its earlier 'mid Atlantic blob' approach however from a cold perspective I'm a little disappointed with it , so yes, beer is definitely the order of the day ;)

Mind you, it looks a colder solution when compared to the ECM 00 offering :)

Edited by Cumulonimbus Tower

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The ECM doesn't really deliver a proper easterly but it does by the looks of it drop some shortwave energy through the UK between T120 and T144hrs, so possibly some snow spreading se.

 

It might still deliver an easterly in future runs, on recent form the ECM has hardly covered itself in glory so I wouldn't be assuming its right and the rest wrong.

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