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Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards


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Short answer   The short answer to your question is yes, the presence of low pressure (at higher altitudes, being coincident with very cold upper air), makes the air more unstable, as the gradient i

Welcome to "Celebrity Model Discussion". Let's go out to our reporter, who has managed to corner the miracle man himself, Jesus Christ, for his thoughts: Reporter : Thanks for joining us Jesus, first

If people will insist on analysing the 850mb temperatures every single run here's something to bear in mind when viewing the output for the upcoming period - -6c is a baseline figure to put snow/rain

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Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean indicates a lot of very cold frosty weather, severe frosts and ice days, especially for areas which receive an initial snow cover, very good news for coldies who are fed up with cold snaps that only last a day or two, this looks substantial.

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With this cold spell now upon us and the potential breakdown veering all over the place in FI, we are not into Feb yet! Could it be that the OPI is about to prove itself as a reliable tool after most of us thought it was bust.....

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Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean indicates a lot of very cold frosty weather, severe frosts and ice days, especially for areas which receive an initial snow cover, very good news for coldies who are fed up with cold snaps that only last a day or two, this looks substantial.

Hmmmmm  indeed , latest update from A Deakin on the Beeb website mentions the chill throughout next week with temps down to - double digits ( at night )also mentions some Tuesday snow, charts weren't a million miles off yours Frosty

Edited by Banbury
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Hmmmmm  indeed , latest update from A Deakin on the Beeb website mentions the chill throughout next week with temps down to - double digits ( at night )also mentions some Tuesday snow, charts weren't a million miles off yours Frosty

Yes it's looking like the coldest week of winter for a good few years, certainly compared to last winters utter disaster...a really arctic feel to next week.

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With this cold spell now upon us and the potential breakdown veering all over the place in FI, we are not into Feb yet! Could it be that the OPI is about to prove itself as a reliable tool after most of us thought it was bust.....

I think no, The OPI should have produced at lot earlier if it is to be believed a useful tool

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All models painting a cold outlook for the foreseeable, with a northerly airstream at least until Tuesday thereafter we see the azores high nosing NE against increasing heights far to our NE, under a cold pool the result will be some preety cold nights mid week. Tentative signs of an azores/mid atlantic high/arctic high link up, but not quite there. The models show further shortwave activity to our NW and its a rinse repeat of yesterday's events..

 

Overall a wintry outlook.

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cold without precipitation in the coming days

gefs: control and basic run is same until February 6!.

-10 control run February 6(southeast) http://www.meteoguru.com/pro/ensembles/?latlon=51.51,-0.09

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=180&mode=1&carte=

 

The outlook does look fairly dry but maybe its NE Scotland's turn to get some heavy snow showers on Sunday in what looks quite a strong flow, bound to be quite a wind chill from that. Should be some severe frosts and clear sunny days as well mind so not too bad if your a cold fan.

 

Maybe next week the winds may finally switch to a TRUE Northerly then NNE'ly?

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18z 120 continues the gradual improvement through the day of backing the pattern West and more amplification.

00z/06z/12z/18z comparison.

 

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If the 00z is a further improvement then we will know we are onto something.

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North sea develops a separate low.

 

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If this tracks slightly SW then we could see some interest as the lowers heights stay also better heights N and E this run.

Edited by SN0WM4N
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Yesterdays ECM 12hrs to T120hrs:

 

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Note the shortwave circled red and compare that to todays 12hrs to T96hrs:

 

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A very poor modelling episode by the ECM and the GFS which also had this weak feature.

 

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I think no, The OPI should have produced at lot earlier if it is to be believed a useful tool

However, they did say that it would more likely to prove there would be cold later in the season..my question would be if Feb and March turn out to be cold and snowy would that prove the negative OPI a good tool in predicting 2 out of 3/4 winter months being cold?I say 3/4 because I think March can be classed as a winter month

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However, they did say that it would more likely to prove there would be cold later in the season..my question would be if Feb and March turn out to be cold and snowy would that prove the negative OPI a good tool in predicting 2 out of 3/4 winter months being cold?I say 3/4 because I think March can be classed as a winter month

Agree if Feb n March are cold and snowy but we shall have to wait and see. I think far to much emphasis was put on this winters OPI and it fell flat on its face early on. It needs a cold Feb March to redeem itself as a credible indicator.

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Having endured winter 2013/14 with next to no interest showing on the charts, what we've seen over the last couple of weeks has been top notch stuff.  This cold spell is looking better and better each day and the much heralded strat warming commences within the next few hours.  This is just 30 hours away!

 

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I think there's a good chance that February 2015 could be a quite notable month!

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ECM 12Z ENS for London.

 

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One or two people were saying this could be a 2 or 3 Day toppler. Well, going by those ENS this cold spell seems to be locked in for at least another 10 Days, or possibly longer.

Edited by SE Blizzards
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