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Paul

Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards

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Good grief what is the 18z up to!? Running that not insignificant system SE to our W. Much interest

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Forgive me for asking.. But is that good or bad?

its a good thing as blast from the past has just posted! ! Rather have that than the shortwave joining forces with the low coming out of the states!! Always a chance of too much energy going north east then!!

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18z gfs is approaching channel low territory.

Beaten by great plum from from sw bumping straight into some cold air.

Edited by SN0WM4N

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That shallow low misses the UK (precipitation goes into France, snow does graze the south coast just), but it may pull the trough back a little west as more Arctic air digs in behind the system.

This squeezes the Atlantic ridge, potentially increasing the chances of something being cut off in the north Atlantic

gfs-0-144.png?18

GFS still shows that disturbance running south too on Monday.

 

In the end it still ends up with the Atlantic high moving in, though the convective window has been extended a little longer, snow showers still going strong by next Wednesday.

Edited by Captain shortwave

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More changes on the GFS 18hrs run, this time that shortwave separates cleanly ahead of the upstream low!

 

This was the original view of the outputs and especially of the GFS but this seemed to get dropped only to make a "special guest appearance" and a welcome one again now.

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Pub runs been on the booze.

 

Better amplification, better shortwave tracking and to top it all off, it almost gets a channel low going too

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156 and the northerly still going strong, it's going to feel bitterly cold.  Superb run so far!

 

gfsnh-0-156.png?18

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Is that a channel low that's just appeared?

Yep it certainly looks like it but the way every run is changing goes to show that the models are really struggling to find consistency atm.At least the GFS is more positive like ECM and UKMET(mind you it is the pub run though lol!!)

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Many thanks BFTP and you're just down the road from me..

gfs-0-144.png?18

 

Indeed, also lok at the more vertical sheer of the trough W Atlantic, far more held back than the 12z, and also look at the disturbance coming down the UK on more N/S trajectory.....big improvement again...more like UKMO/ECM?....or maybe my drum beating?

 

 

BFTP

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Well well gfs reverts back to what it was showing 36 hours ago!! Shortwave cuts off in the atlantic and heads south east west of ireland!!

Well spotted and exactly my thoughts. I thought i was seeing things. Would be great for Ireland (MBY :)) and NW parts of England (Snow wise)

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156 and the northerly still going strong, it's going to feel bitterly cold.  Superb run so far!

 

gfsnh-0-156.png?18

Just wondering if that kink to the NE/E Anglia would bring precipitation? Looks interesting. Better 18z thus far! 

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Yes, a great run and more in line with the latest MetO MRF on the Beeb that put any breakdown well into FI.

Don't forget early February is well know as a time that produces cold spells and HLB as the Atlantic weakens in response to lower SST so Stella charts are more likely to come off than any during December.

Andy

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BBC a little perplexing, not sure how we can come under the influence of a high pressure with the Jetstream profile they were showing i.e. to our west with us on the cold side of the jet. The latest GFS combined with ECM are showing an increasingly likely scenario for early next week, i.e. shortwave activity to the NW prolonging the cold unsettled theme and sending the azores high northwards with no phasing of any low heights off the NE USA seaboard. A locked in cold unsettled theme.. with mix of polar and arctic maritime air lasting a number of days.

Edited by damianslaw

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So far we are seeing a 100hr toppler from T+72 programmed on the GFS 18Z. If that is dry for those 100hrs I'll be gobsmacked....

 

Is it still classified as a toppler if it lasts that long? I assumed topplers were 24 hour affairs.

 

GFS removes the shortwave that was over Iceland at 180hrs and begins building heights Northwards.. very, very similar to the later frames of the 12z ECM

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Yes, a great run and more in line with the latest MetO MRF on the Beeb that put any breakdown well into FI.

Don't forget early February is well know as a time that produces cold spells and HLB as the Atlantic weakens in response to lower SST so Stella charts are more likely to come off than any during December.

Andy

That was yesterdays

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Is it still classified as a toppler if it lasts that long? I assumed topplers were 24 hour affairs.

 

GFS removes the shortwave that was over Iceland at 180hrs and begins building heights Northwards.. very, very similar to the later frames of the 12z ECM

I consider it a toppler if we don't see undercutting, so in my eyes yes, because the jet is always riding on the top. But I'll take it!

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BBC a little perplexing, not sure how we can come under the influence of a high pressure with the Jetstream profile they were showing i.e. to our west with us on the cold side of the jet. The latest GFS combined with ECM are showing an increasingly likely scenario for early next week, i.e. shortwave activity to the NW prolonging the cold unsettled theme and sending the azores high northwards with no phasing of any low heights off the NE USA seaboard. A locked in cold unsettled theme.. with mix of polar and arctic maritime air lasting a number of days.

 

I wonder if the BBC uses the 00Z ukmo run on the longer range forecasts as the chart Nina Ridge shows did not look like the UKMO 12Z run too me although that said, they would have more data so maybe that is the way it would of headed?

 

If tomorrow UKMO runs show something you described then expect the BBC's longer range forecast to change also. 

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A fantastic pub run upto t180 , absolutely no point in taking it serious from this point in . Just for fun and trends remember . A very unstable northerly that's for sure . The coldest spell of the year . Great .

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More changes on the GFS 18hrs run, this time that shortwave separates cleanly ahead of the upstream low!

 

This was the original view of the outputs and especially of the GFS but this seemed to get dropped only to make a "special guest appearance" and a welcome one again now.

 

Yes quite a surprise that Nick, looked like that option had been dropped and we had to worry about it phasing with the next low.

A bit like a celeb who has fallen from grace and suddenly turns up on a panel show - it looks a bit desperate but reassuringly familiar

Edited by Mucka

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-8's across the country at 186.  This could be one of  the best northerly's for many years and although the northern contingent should do best, this could deliver anywhere!

 

gfs-1-186.png?18

 

 

OF course the added advantage of a sustained "northerly" is that any mild weather from this week or even the less cold spells on Friday will have long since left the building.

 

How often in recent times have we had cold air up in the atmosphere but milder air at the surface "spoiling" things.

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a few posts moved over to the ramps thread (in case your wondering where they are)

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