Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards

[Mucka]

ECM London ensembles. A chilly/cold week coming up.

 

 

GFS ensembles NW England. A cold/chilly week coming up. 

 

[The Enforcer]

Still waiting for NMM to update, which will extend coverage to 6pm Thurs.

And here it is: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=1&map=5

 

 

No. Wrong answer. Try harder next time.

[summer blizzard]

Another trend run. High pressure builds over the UK around day 9 or 10 and sticks around fairly strongly.

 

[SE Blizzards]

Another trend run. High pressure builds over the UK around day 9 or 10 and sticks around fairly strongly.

 

 

Yeah, but i would suggest for most of FI on the 18z it would be a rather cold HP. (especially at the surface where -10 wouldn't be out of the question over some of the snowfields from Day 9 onwards. A very similar story on the ECM 12Z.

Edited January 27, 2015 by SE Blizzards

[summer blizzard]

Yeah, but i would suggest for most of FI on the 18z it would be a rather cold HP. (especially at the surface where -10 wouldn't be out of the question over some of the snowfields from Day 9 onwards. A very similar story on the ECM 12Z.

 

Yes. From November to Feb most strong high's produce inversions, especially when clear.

[SLEETY]

Hope mod's will allow me this one...

 

Fergie just tweeted..

 

How long will cold conditions stay once here? Latest UKMO diagnostics hint at less cold, more W'ly-influenced weather by end of next week. This change - as is often the case - may prove rather 'messy' (perhaps yielding a risk of further snow in *some* parts of UK)...

Cont'd...but until then, we have high confidence on cold weather frm Weds PM thro rest of this week; & also possible for a few days nxt week

they always say that in the 10-15 day period more westerly influenced weather.im not taking any notice of it .

[Mucka]

Good morning

 

GFS is driving me insane. It can't just model a simple trough, no, no, it has to have secondary lows that slingshots the parent low back West introducing as much milder air into the mix as possible.

 

 

Compare that mess with UKMO.

 

 

We want any secondary features to develop after the trough has pulled away some, even UKMO could do with being a little further East but GFS seems to go out of its way to over-complicate things.

Normally it wouldn't be a big deal but because we don't have a wide margin for snowfall it could make a big difference to what some people actually get, especially if they have settled snow, they won't want any sleet or rain spoiling it. (Such is life as a weather geek and snow obsessive)

 

Anyway, just something else to watch in the output. UKMO 144 looks nice with a stiff N/NE feed and a huge Atlantic block, no quick return to Westerlies with this chart.

 

 

GFS less impressive with the pattern a little further East (Now we want to be further West,  )

 

 

But it does have the redeeming feature of disrupting low pressure SE later which is something I mentioned the models might pick up on a couple of days ago once it came into high res. Too early to say if GFS has sniffed this out before the other models or it is just a one off but it latched onto trough disruption first with GEM in the last cold spell so who knows. It is nice to see it modelled though because that is one way we can extend the cold and get some blocking in the game.

 

 

Gets pretty close to a cut off Icelandic high at one stage but upstream isn't helpful and ultimately the ridge topples but it is the disrupting low that is important and if it becomes a theme I'm sure we will see better things modelled in FI.

Edit.

Wrote it off a bit quickly, low pressure forms over Europe and the ridge extends out toward Scandi which would give a third chance at blocking in the same cold spell (Atlantic ridge/ Icelandic high/Scandi high) surely we could get lucky with one of those attempts if they were to happen?

 

 

So other than my personal grievance with GFS some very good output thus far this morning. Hopefully GFS ensembles will show continued improvement as regards any prospect of blocking forming.

Edited January 27, 2015 by Mucka

[Mucka]

GFS ensembles have stopped at 144 for some reason.

Euro 4 keeps snow showers well to the North Wednesday evening. I would of expected more for NW England and North Wales at least.

 

 

They come further South later Wednesday night

 

Edited January 27, 2015 by Mucka

[snowangel32]

GFS ensembles have stopped at 144 for some reason.

Euro 4 keeps snow showers well to the North Wednesday evening. I would of expected more for NW England and North Wales at least.

 

 

They come further South later Wednesday night

 

Looks alot more ppn on those charts to me even though they dont give a true picture just an idea of what could happen, dont like how the pv forms in fi on the gfs surely would make any blocking long term impossible but will surely change again on the next run, we just need to get some sustained heights into greenland area as much as we can in the next few days to try and hold back the atlantic.

[Eugene]

Only just below average really.    looks dry for most of England away from the coasts.   3s and 4s for my neck of the woods

 

 

Much colder at night, remember maxs are very short lived in the winter, it will feel very cold out of the sun.

[winterof79]

I cannot post charts at present but if anyone can put up the 96z fax it's a thing of beauty.Embedded troughs galore.We are in for a treat.

[Snow Grain]

The latest charts show a northerly flow, giving wintry showers, heavy on North facing coasts at times. Scattered further south and inland.

So generally a fine spell of weather coming up with temperatures slightly below normal with night time frosts. Later in the period it's looking like settled conditions may continue with frosts becoming harder but days fine and dry.

[bluearmy]

I cannot post charts at present but if anyone can put up the 96z fax it's a thing of beauty.Embedded troughs galore.We are in for a treat.

The new one is different

not so many embedded troughs and the warm sector seems further west through fri as a small low swings se. ECM has this off the east coast throughout so plenty to firm up on yet, even three days away!

[Polar Maritime]

I cannot post charts at present but if anyone can put up the 96z fax it's a thing of beauty.Embedded troughs galore.We are in for a treat.

 

As Blue says lots to firm up on re-detail.

Edited January 27, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Paul]

Monthly forecast updated - cold spell expected to end by the end of next week, milder for a time but perhaps a reload of the cold later in the month as high pressure ridges up toward Iceland and Greenland at times..

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=monthly;sess=

[winterof79]

Thanks gents.Looked at meteociel.Still looks like a front has moved through with one setting up and more to follow.The deep cold over the weekend looking to last well into next week according to 00z outputs.

Edited January 27, 2015 by winterof79

[bluearmy]

Monthly forecast updated - cold spell expected to end by the end of next week, milder for a time but perhaps a reload of the cold later in the month as high pressure ridges up toward Iceland and Greenland at times..

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=monthly;sess=

That's my broad take on the new EC32. If the pattern is to repeat week 4 then I'd be surprised if the period days 12 to 24 was just MLB and then zonal. things have been too mobile thus far for that.

[Continental Climate]

Well it looks like the fun and games for the western half of the country kicks off tomorrow and this cold spell will probably last until the middle of next week that is a good week of cold and potentially snowy weather, which in the context of the winter is pretty good. However the spell will come to an end probably by next wednesday I dont think there is much doubt about that, not in my mind anyway!! The problem is that omnipresent vortex it just never seems to want to leave its permanent squat We all know with it being in this position it will fire up the jet that will simply barrel through and demolish any mid atlantic blocking we have. The vortex has been very resilient this year despite numerous predictions that it was "on the ropes"!! (I just wish it would B*&^%R OFF)

 

I think we may get another cold shot later into february similar to what we have now with the west doing better than the east but with everything remaining marginal because folks without sustained northern blocking you can forget about deep cold lasting more than ten days. 

[KTtom]

Monthly forecast updated - cold spell expected to end by the end of next week, milder for a time but perhaps a reload of the cold later in the month as high pressure ridges up toward Iceland and Greenland at times..

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=monthly;sess=

 

What has changed upstream for such a radical change...last week it was going for significant cold for wk 3 from the continent, which was in line with Carinthians thoughts (contacts)?

Edited January 27, 2015 by KTtom

[shaky]

All of a suddeh gfs is the hero after 144 hours with trough disruption and ecm bulldozes everything further north east!! Funnily enough ecm is better till 144 hours!!

[SMU]

Morning all

Fantastic looking charts for the short & mid term today -

However the trending past 168 hasnt been so kind to as overnight-

Still plenty of wiggle room for those to change

A high expectation of most seeing some of the white stuff this week & if the fronts become a little slow moving then maybe even some covering!

Fingers crossed for better updates on the 12s

S

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

That's my broad take on the new EC32. If the pattern is to repeat week 4 then I'd be surprised if the period days 12 to 24 was just MLB and then zonal. things have been too mobile thus far for that.

But slightly confusing because it was only last wk the month forecast for February from netweather was to look East , even heard rumblings of feb 1991 being mentioned , so suddenly that's been changed ? Sounds very fickle to me ?

[Paul]

What has changed upstream for such a radical change...last week it was going for significant cold for wk 3 from the continent, which was in line with Carinthians thoughts (contacts)?

 

That wasn't really suggested on Ian's forecast last week, it went up to mid-Feb at that point with week three being the first week of Feb, and it suggested a cold period (as we're getting), then a milder period after that, so still much as it was with no prolonged significant freeze, but obviously we're a week further on and the chance of a colder reload later. Obviously Ian's thinking that a Scandi high ridging to the North of the UK isn't how it's playing out, but there really was no suggestion of prolonged cold beyond the first week of Feb.

 

We're heading off topic though, so feel free to drop me a pm if you want a copy of that forecast or to discuss more. 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

What has changed upstream for such a radical change...last week it was going for significant cold for wk 3 from the continent, which was in line with Carinthians thoughts (contacts)?

Thats my take , it seems every time high lat blocking signals are there a few days later they're removed , I understand they still mention ridging toward Iceland so maybe stil a chance but I'm not sure how such strong signals can get blown away in the matter of days

[JoeShmoe]

Short term the models/forecasts looking snowy for Scotland and the far north of England Weds-Fri. Dry in the South albeit cold in the wind.