Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards

[Geordiesnow]

GFS 06Z run does not topple the high fully into the UK but I fail too see why there is so much excitment over a cold raw dry easterly wind, you won't be getting any frost, and no doubt stratuscumulus cloud would eventually topple in leading to horrible cold grey days, especially for the South. Yet when you see a true polar WNW'ly hitting Northern areas, some don't describe it as a good run because its only affecting Scotland... I know which I prefer but each to their own. 

 

For me the ECM is much better for potential, much rather see some sort of attempt of retrogression to Greenland so we get the potential for a PROPER Northerly.

[Captain Shortwave]

A series of posts have been moved or removed as they were off topic.

A reminder, if you feel a post in off topic, please report it instead of replying to it.

 

Thanks

[Harsh Climate]

Looking at 06z esembles, The gfs wasn't an outliar and does have some support. About 30% perpetrations similar.

 

Here's a few at 300h: 

 

 

 

Although not the form horse, there is certainly the possibility of more continental influenced weather further down the line.

[Long haul to mild]

6z is just an outlier for Friday/Saturday but there are members close by. If this is really something to watch for, I imagine the 12zs will all start to pick up on it.

[phil nw.]

The  06z GFS is certainly a very cold but mainly dry run in the HR period-ie out to T240hrs.

 

The high being just a little further north makes all the difference and we see -10C uppers encroaching in the south.

Likely there would by some snow showers near coasts facing the bitter east wind.

If we do see a trend building to further amplification this could then develop into a real wintry.period with those low heights to our south over Europe.

As BA said earlier those London Ens.are looking cold and blocked into week 2.

 

the ECM suite looking to prolong the cold into mid February.

 

It looks like any return of the Westerlies are currently long odds and it's  more a case of a cold and dry pattern.

 

If however further ridging develops then we are in with a chance of further deep cold and an increasing risk of snow in week 2 with the UK in a more unstable easterly flow.

 

For now it looks essentially a dry period to come but let's see how the pattern develops in the coming days.

 

Interesting times. 

 

[Eugene]

GFS 06Z run does not topple the high fully into the UK but I fail too see why there is so much excitment over a cold raw dry easterly wind, you won't be getting any frost, and no doubt stratuscumulus cloud would eventually topple in leading to horrible cold grey days, especially for the South. Yet when you see a true polar WNW'ly hitting Northern areas, some don't describe it as a good run because its only affecting Scotland... I know which I prefer but each to their own. 

 

For me the ECM is much better for potential, much rather see some sort of attempt of retrogression to Greenland so we get the potential for a PROPER Northerly.

 

 

Like the one today.

 

Cyclonic northerlies don't deliver,  too much moderation, as it turns more anticyclonic northerly like tonight onwards we can have some lovely hard frosts.

[Chris Wsm]

That Easterly would likely deliever alot more precipitation than shown , with -10 850's and all that troughing to the South.

[Paul_1978]

GFS 06Z run does not topple the high fully into the UK but I fail too see why there is so much excitment over a cold raw dry easterly wind, you won't be getting any frost, and no doubt stratuscumulus cloud would eventually topple in leading to horrible cold grey days, especially for the South. Yet when you see a true polar WNW'ly hitting Northern areas, some don't describe it as a good run because its only affecting Scotland... I know which I prefer but each to their own.

For me the ECM is much better for potential, much rather see some sort of attempt of retrogression to Greenland so we get the potential for a PROPER Northerly.

An Easterly in isolation might be dry, but I'm thinking back to Ian McCaskill's famous Feb 1991 forecast with "lows pushing up from France", and its associated fronts which gave the snowfall that a lot of us crave. Edited February 1, 2015 by Paul_1978

[john mac]

Not long to the 12z and as has already been said the 12z suites have been attempting to extend the cold spell where as the 00z has brought the milder air back.

Interesting trend.

Let's see if the 12z follows the gfs6z.

[West is Best]

Oh lord:

 

 

Not just a colder member as we hoped and perhaps expected but that dreaded word, an outlier in significant segments. For any newbies 'cold outlier' means when it's out on a limb, so that there are no other ensemble runs that are colder than it.

 

GFS is having a lot of problems since the upgrade yo-yoing frantically between a milder op and a colder op. I expect two or three ops will continue the cold theme before it flip-flops again. That has been the pattern. Just to remind you what a dog's breakfast the GFS is becoming, this was the 0z ensemble:

 

 

In other words, two totally different operational runs. Chalk n' cheese. For their credibility, and our sanity, they'd be better binning their current operationals and using the mean or control for their output.

 

Anyway, to cut to the chase: we need to see a lot more support for this scenario. Fun to look at, mind.

Edited February 1, 2015 by West is Best

[sunnijim]

Can those missing pieces of the metaphorical jigsaw be found? Have we been on slow stopping service before we board the siberian express?

Heights building toward Greenland or Scandi now (or both) nothing else will do going forward now,certainly for the snow starved South.

Lets hope the ecm and gfs 6z are onto somthing in their differing ways.

[Polar Maritime]

A shiny new thread coming up for the 18z run's please hold off posting for a moment.

 

New thread here  https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82438-model-output-discussion-february-onwards/  

Edited February 1, 2015 by Polar Maritime