Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards

[Methuselah]

Its all been marginal though so far. If we can tap into a decent Easterly, then disturbances over Europe may well form, head Westwards and give us a proper dumping, not the wet slush we've had so far. 

The MOD thread is often used in these cases to look at trends and outputs that could happen further down the line, whilst the present situations tend to be discussed in the regional threads. 

But we need to see some properly entrenched cold air over mainland Europe, first. Last time I looked it was hardly even below freezing...

 

PS: things can change.

[492]

.

Edited January 31, 2015 by 492

[bluearmy]

Low nw European anomoly back on the gefs later week 2

[snowice]

But we need to see some properly entrenched cold air over mainland Europe, first. Last time I looked it was hardly even below freezing...

PS: things can change.

Yes they can change but it's the 1st February tomorrow so it would want to get a move on. Edited January 31, 2015 by snowice

[gottolovethisweather]

I like this, I like this a lot. 

 

http://theconversation.com/why-snowfall-is-one-of-the-hardest-predictions-for-a-meteorologist-36918

 

If you're stuck for something to do in between analysing this evening's ECM offerings and the GFS pub run, I'd suggest folk have a read of the above.

Edited January 31, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[mushymanrob]

Here's my latest Synoptic Analysis - including a look at last Thursday's polar low and also looking ahead into this coming week with the continuing cold and wintry spell.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6432;sess=

Nick, can i ask, i see you mention an inversion possible under that high if the gfs type evolution verifies. Wouldnt that lead to a stratus layer? Thus it becoming a dirty high?

[igloo]

JMA 12Z as ever has it nailed.

many people would love to see the JMA right for once but looking through its archives tells something diferent its junk

[blizzard81]

many people would love to see the JMA right for once but looking through its archives tells something diferent its junk

I agree, same camp as GEM imo.

[blizzard81]

Low nw European anomoly back on the gefs later week 2

Good news for coldies.

[Weather-history]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gif

 

Latest T+72 FAX has Med low significantly further west than previous two runs and shows a high cell just to the north of Iceland significantly further north than before. Quite a correction for the medium term.

Hmm, not sure what you are looking at here.

The FAX charts on wetterzentrale at 72hrs, 84hrs and 96hrs are for 12z Tuesday at the time of this post. The high if anything is further south on the latest FAX chart compared to the old FAX chart.

[492]

Hmm, not sure what you are looking at here.

The FAX charts on wetterzentrale at 72hrs, 84hrs and 96hrs are for 12z Tuesday at the time of this post. The high if anything is further south on the latest FAX chart compared to the old FAX chart.

Yes thanks don't know what happened there...you are absolutely right.  

[knocker]

Nick, can i ask, i see you mention an inversion possible under that high if the gfs type evolution verifies. Wouldnt that lead to a stratus layer? Thus it becoming a dirty high?

 

Or Stratocumulus gloom Mushy. Mind if Nick is going for hard frosts that would probably rule it out.

[nick sussex]

The GFS inversion possibility is a throwback to quite a few years ago, does anyone remember that incidence when there was some amazing hoar frost and ice days with upper air temps well above zero.

 

That had a similar high pressure cell centred over the UK, this was early February if I remember also.I think it had to be pre 2008 as I was still living in West Sussex then.

 

The key was the high pressure cell centred bang in the middle of the UK with no wind.

 

Right I might just remember for some reason 2006 comes to mind early February, I'll see what the GFS archives make of that.

Edited January 31, 2015 by nick sussex

[knocker]

At the end of the ECM run the 850s are in the plus 6C-8C range.

[EML Network]

Well I for one am struggling to find encouragement in the outputs this evening, gone are the long drawn easterly's and replacing them is benign high pressure dominated weather that simply straddles the UK and ever so slowly eats all the cold up. 

 

then the trend is to end up with a sinking high and a slow painful return to the default, eating up a good chunk of the most important and historically coldest month of the year in the UK, but I think the models need more runs to determine where it goes beyond next week.  

 

About the only place that would likely hold on to the snow chances as we go through this week,  given the output is the extreme SE, and even here it's a case of squeezing out the spare left overs, it's a bit like watching a mate run out of money on a Saturday night and seeing him drink the leftovers of other people's pints. 

 

The only positives I can see is that the High to our West is progressively being computed to be ever so slightly further north on each run across the models and if that trend continues I would expect to see the models throw out various options for next weekend, I'll explain below where I think things might go if things go favorably  

 

looking at + 144 we have the GFS, which looks good for snow chances for those in the SE but looks dry everywhere else. 

the GFS Control run is almost a carbon copy, snow chances on this limited to the very far south and east

on the UKMO the high is much further West and not as far North, snow chances at this juncture are reserved fr an even smaller tip of the SE, hard to know where it would go from here, the high could sink with a NW feed going over the top, or Low pressure could sink from Iceland and reload with another toppler, a NW feed looks most likely..

Finally the ECM , the snow chances here would be greater if you was on a very long pier in the extreme south east...or on a boat just off shore. 

So  each model above has the High to our West in slightly different positions , but the main theme at this juncture is broadly similar, even though each model takes a slightly different evolution to get there. 

where it goes from there is very much dependent upon where that high pressure goes, to my untrained eye another toppler looks more likely than not and then perhaps that might open the door to a real cold blast from the North East , it's something some of the GFS runs are hinting at, for example...

 

Run 1 leads onto this...

 

Run 4 takes it's time but leads onto this...

run 7

 

Of course there's all sorts of options available, I just hope we don't end up with a long drawn out and dry end to things, with a slow gradual warming up like the GFS Op is showing as that would just be plain boring away from the SE...from an IMBY perspective I'm hoping to see something white falling out of the sky before the week is out, just hoping it's not another darn seagull

Edited January 31, 2015 by EML Network

[sorepaw1]

Looking at the 12z certainly some cold nights and days but very little snow fall ,with the pending easterly a few light flurries in the east maybe,slightly warmer than average North sea this year.

[MPG]

Well I for one am struggling to find encouragement in the outputs this evening, gone are the long drawn easterly's and replacing them is benign high pressure dominated weather that simply straddles the UK and ever so slowly eats all the cold up. 

 

then the trend is to end up with a sinking high and a slow painful return to the default, eating up a good chunk of the most important and historically coldest month of the year in the UK, but I think the models need more runs to determine where it goes beyond next week.  

 

About the only place that would likely hold on to the snow chances as we go through this week,  given the output is the extreme SE, and even here it's a case of squeezing out the spare left overs, it's a bit like watching a mate run out of money on a Saturday night and seeing him drink the leftovers of other people's pints. 

 

The only positives I can see is that the High to our West is progressively being computed to be ever so slightly further north on each run across the models and if that trend continues I would expect to see the models throw out various options for next weekend, I'll explain below where I think things might go if things go favorably  

 

looking at + 144 we have the GFS, which looks good for snow chances for those in the SE but looks dry everywhere else. 

the GFS Control run is almost a carbon copy, snow chances on this limited to the very far south and east

on the UKMO the high is much further West and not as far North, snow chances at this juncture are reserved fr an even smaller tip of the SE, hard to know where it would go from here, the high could sink with a NW feed going over the top, or Low pressure could sink from Iceland and reload with another toppler, a NW feed looks most likely..

Finally the ECM , the snow chances here would be greater if you was on a very long pier in the extreme south east...ha ha ha or on a boat just off shore. 

So with each model above the High to our West is ever so slightly further south, but the main theme at this juncture is broadly similar, even though each model takes a slightly different evolution to get there. 

where it goes from there is very much dependent upon where that high pressure goes, to my untrained eye another toppler looks more likely than not and then perhaps that might open the door to a real cold blast from the North East , it's something some of the GFS runs are hinting at, for example...

 

Run 1 leads onto this...

 

Run 4 takes it's time but leads onto this...

run 7

 

Of course there's all sorts of options available, I just hope we don't end up with a long drawn out and dry end to things, with a slow gradual warming up like the GFS Op is showing as that would just be plain boring away from the SE...from an IMBY perspective I'm hoping to see something white falling out of the sky before the week is out, just hoping it's not another darn seagull

Looks like Majorca will be colder and snowier than most of UK this winter going by some of those charts!

[SE Blizzards]

At the end of the ECM run the 850s are in the plus 6C-8C range.

 

Yep, they sure are, but at that time frame the Day 10 ECM chart has as much chance of verifying as me going on a date with Angelina Jolie.

 

Meanwhile, back in the real world...

 

 

 

Cracking Day 5 ECM + GFS charts for all cold lovers, and in the meantime the possibility of a few Snow showers lapping onto Eastern Coasts, and maybe spreading a little inland at times too. Enjoy.

Edited January 31, 2015 by SE Blizzards

[Sweatyman]

Have you noticed, it seems to me that the mornings runs are more on the milder side and it gets colder towards the evenings runs.

yep happens all the time! Don't know why it just does. Watch it do it tomorrow....

[bluearmy]

At the end of the ECM run the 850s are in the plus 6C-8C range.

Outside the spread of the mean - very unlikely but if the high sinks far enough it's isn't impossible.

[chris55]

Cold start to Feb!

 

 

 

Im guessing there is some model Fatigue for the majority who haven't seen any proper snow yet ( me included). But these ens are the coldest we have seen for the south in two years! The scatter from the 6th is noteworthy....... nothing nailed as to where we go from there. If we keep everything crossed then feb could evolve into a very cold month, all we need now is some lowland snow and to be honest id not discount anything during the period up to the 6th !

Edited January 31, 2015 by chris55

[SE Blizzards]

Looking at the short ECM ENS for de bilt the Op was very much on the mild side at Days 9 - 10, but did have support from the Control.

 

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/index.php

[Dunlop Dave]

Nice charts. Can see a good channel streamer firing up from this to affect us here in the Channel Islands !

[knocker]

Outside the spread of the mean - very unlikely but if the high sinks far enough it's isn't impossible.

 

Agreed ba not impossible with the subsiding air being heated by adiabatic compression a large inversion in that range quite possible.

[knocker]

Cracking cold spell just starting cold lead all way out to end of Feb

 

I'm not sure you are picking up what I meant exactly. Those warm 850s doesn't suggest anything other than cold given the synoptics.

Edited January 31, 2015 by knocker