Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

True! - but not so dry as mentioned over the last decade or so...which gives an indication maybe of recent winters and lack of cold ones.

 

Possibly but who knows where natural variation ends and trends begin?

 

GFS ensembles are dominated by MLB at the end of hi res so any typically zonal weather looks extremely unlikely for the foreseeable.

If there is a trend it is for high pressure to retrograde West so we may see some eye candy in deep FI with Atlantic/Greenland blocking unless it overrides the signal by being over progressive in low res.

 

Eidt.

 

Nope, typical low res with all energy heading NE, hoh hum.

Edited by Mucka
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

 

Look at the triangle polar vortex lol. Never seen an image like this! very unusual:

 

gfsnh-0-174.png?12

 

This 12z run from the GFS does look to prop the high up further north than the 6z. Only a little, but does maintain a NE feed until Thursday now. Little step in the right direction anyway :)

 

I think this is a big change chart.

Why....

Look to the south west. The low heights from Europe have encircled the MLB over the UK and it looks trapped. It cannot move back to its 'home'. It can only stay way it is a retrogress (either west or east!). Either of which will only increase the cold.

To back up this point UKMO (at t144) has also placed a low area stragically under the high around the Azores and is rapidly closing the 'gap' by moving the euro lows westward........

I think chances of cold persisting have increased on the 12Z runs (considerably).

MIA

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

Very interesting GEFS out to day 9. Not so sure we will be seeing anything mild in the near future. Definate signs of the high sitting further north and west across the 12z suite. All sorts of interesting possibilities in play.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

This cold spell looks far from over in my eye. I think he models may have been overdoing the low heights in fantasy land and the trend looks ever more evident that heights are set to increase over Scandi, with a more potent easterly developing.

Also underneath the High that sets up shop over us will see some very cold surface temps too.

Anyone looking for a mild breakdown will struggle in this latest 12z run that's for sure !!

EES91

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Going by the expected upstream pattern a good chance to extend the cold. The GFS keeps the cold right out to T240hrs, even though the uppers turn less cold with high pressure over the UK surface cold likely to stay in place.

 

Any continental feed is likely to bring in some very cold air as a lot of snow is expected over mainland Europe more especially western portions so some good cold surface pooling developing.

 

If you look at the NCEP update even though some broadening of the trough pattern is likely they still expect the trough/ridge/trough set up across the USA to remain fairly amplified.

 

What possibly could still change the outputs is the MJO signal with a lack of model agreement there, next update is Monday so hopefully we can see which way that is headed.

 

In terms of the will it won't it easterly, still uncertainty there, the UKMO less interested the GFS a bit more bullish.

 

As to any retrogression and trough dropping south, the ECM spreads did have a cluster that brought the cold south into the North Sea and sw across the south/se.

 

There looks to be a bit too much energy upstream for proper retrogression but a small chance of the high edging west, cold pulled sw into the UK and then another toppling ridge.

 

Not long now to the ECM, hopefully that can at least extend the cold.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

True! - but not so dry as mentioned over the last decade or so...which gives an indication maybe of recent winters and lack of cold ones.

It's also a bit of myth that a dry February is necessarily a cold one, February 1998 was exceptionally mild, it was also very dry for England and Wales.

Edited by Weather-history
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This cold spell looks far from over in my eye. I think he models may have been overdoing the low heights in fantasy land and the trend looks ever more evident that heights are set to increase over Scandi, with a more potent easterly developing.

Also underneath the High that sets up shop over us will see some very cold surface temps too.

Anyone looking for a mild breakdown will struggle in this latest 12z run that's for sure !!

EES91

 

 

Spot on though the atlantic never gets a look in pushed back really easily, GFS 12Z finishes off very blocked with a large area of HP stretching from eastern/central europe to greenland.

 

Also the last decade is like a drop in the ocean, historically February is a dry month with a higher frequency of anticyclones and quiet weather than any other winter month.

Edited by Eugene
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire

Spot on though the atlantic never gets a look in pushed back really easily, GFS 12Z finishes off very blocked with a large area of HP stretching from eastern/central europe to greenland.

 

Also the last decade is like a drop in the ocean, historically February is a dry month with a higher frequency of anticyclones and quiet weather than any other winter month.

I would say it has to have a greater chance due to the PV starting to weaken as we wizz round to the other side of the Sun?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cool clear sunny weather all year.
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex

Have you noticed, it seems to me that the mornings runs are more on the milder side and it gets colder towards the evenings runs.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

 

Not sure why the cold fans are focusing on a possible less cold, dry, POSSBLY CLOUDY high in a weeks time or so, when theres much more in the way of cold and snow potential inthe immediate future.

Because according to you there is a much greater probability it will be a clear high!!!

LOL

MIA

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Boar's Hill, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Interesting weather
  • Location: Boar's Hill, Oxon

Not sure why the cold fans are focusing on a possible less cold, dry, possibly cloudy high in a weeks time or so, when theres much more in the way of cold and snow potential inthe immediate future.

Because we all want to be able to see round the next corner, even if we know what is coming straight at us in the near future. Even if we are wrong, it is nice to try and see if we are right.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Not sure why the cold fans are focusing on a possible less cold, dry, possibly cloudy high in a weeks time or so, when theres much more in the way of cold and snow potential inthe immediate future.

Its all been marginal though so far. If we can tap into a decent Easterly, then disturbances over Europe may well form, head Westwards and give us a proper dumping, not the wet slush we've had so far. 

The MOD thread is often used in these cases to look at trends and outputs that could happen further down the line, whilst the present situations tend to be discussed in the regional threads. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

 

ECM 120

 

Wow ECM also moving the high further north.

A bit more retrogression of the european low towards the Azores and it will 'trap' the high.

Already the southern arm of the jet looks to be readying itself with waiting arms.

This now moving into the more likely category.

MIA

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)

Just watched Joe Bs Saturday round up and following on from Bluearmys discussion about it a few days ago Joe seems pretty confident that the Horseshoe effect will occur whereby HP will form off West coast of US, North of Canada and a HP forming off NE coast of America. This will force a large Arctic outbreak in US, esp NE areas and give them a very cold February . The implications for us are that he sees pressure building in Greenland and with the HP in place just to the NE of North East USA I think that the Atlantic will be pretty quiet which could have positive implications for NW Europe. He discusses this in last minute of the 16min  weekly chat. Very interesting and only his POV but he has called North America's Winter very accurately so far and I hope he is right on the last bit of his weekly assessment lol!!

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Here's my latest Synoptic Analysis - including a look at last Thursday's polar low and also looking ahead into this coming week with the continuing cold and wintry spell.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6432;sess=

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

Trying to ridge up again, the big two for comparison

 

 

post-23289-0-54272100-1422729440_thumb.p

post-23289-0-16039200-1422729447_thumb.g

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

At 96 ECM looks as though if it tried hard enough a Kettley high could be in the making lol. But to be on the glass "full" side, the potential for a proper easterly certainly isnt out of the question. 

 

ECH1-96.GIF?31-0

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

Nothing too exciting really, cold and dry

post-23289-0-62737200-1422729950_thumb.p

post-23289-0-72161900-1422729956_thumb.p

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Nothing too exciting really, cold and dry

Not all that cold really. May feel pleasant enough in any Feb sunshine. I still think the end game to all this will be a retrogressing high followed by a topple into Scandi.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

Just looked at the 12Z ensembles and what is noticeable is the greater scatter has returned. I thought the 06Z ensembles were trending towards the operationals with less bitterly cold runs. However these have returned on the 12Z.

 

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20150131/12/t850Cambridgeshire.png

 

Even at +192 on the 12Z ECM we have very cold air just to the E of the UK.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015013112/ECM0-192.GIF?31-0

 

So my outlook is I haven't a clue and frankly not too bothered because im more focussed on the next few days.

Hi TEITS, fairly new on here, always look out for your posts among a few others in here. Yes totally agree still plenty to play for from the 6th/7th. Keep up the good posts mate!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...