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Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: East Anglia
  • Location: East Anglia

I would say that we should do that all the time anyway Nick as they are always subject to much revision. But we can only really speculate on what's in front of us and that seems pretty clear to me and has done for days, by next weekend HP will be sitting over or close to the UK. We have one of those curious times when we are seeing lots of small changes for the first few days of Feb which will have a large impact in the hunt for snow but they all keep leading to that Azores high over or close to the UK by the weekend. The OPs seem pretty clear on that and the ensembles are their usual pin the tail on the donkey. If the OPs are wrong then guess a clear trend on the ensembles that lasts for more than 24hrs, if that.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Looking longer term - the models are strongly supportive of the azores high lurking to our SW as enter second full week of February, no obvious signs of the high sinking southwards into Europe more likely to linger in situ with a ridge over the country - milder uppers but a cold surface. In the meantime the Polar Vortex is stuck to West Greenland/Baffin which will prevent any build of heights linking to stronger heights to the NE. All hinges on the jet profile, if it continues to remain amplified and there is nothing to suggest it won't we could easily end up in a rinse and repeat pattern, with the azores high once again ridging north and the trough dropping into Europe.. there will be every chance thereafter for a more pronounced build of heights to the north around the middle of the month - which would tie in with some of the Feb forecasts going for a generally cold second half.

 

February could end up being quite a 'blocked' month, with a rather ineffectual atlantic - a common occurrence.

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Look for a second wave of cold developing in the models tonight around 168 - the low over Iberia normally throws at least one feature west with time-

 

 

post-1235-0-36084700-1422710384_thumb.gi

 

 

Its not been a bad 2 days- after the initial 1 day with 4 upgrades we lost the easterly for a while before it re emerging.

we still have some wiggle room to hols onto cold for a while longer post 192-

 

I must admit the ECM has been poor here with constantly being over progressive-

 

S

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

What happened?

All of a sudden the models are much flatter and more progressive this morning with the ridge toppling over us. The change is across the output and in the ensembles too unfortunately.

 

graphe3_1000_263_102___.gif

 

If we are going this route and the Easterly is off the cards then it would be better to go the ECM route and hope for a trough to push South and a repeat of the currrent set up. It is too far East for that though this morning.

The alternative is a slow sinking UK high with the jet over the top, so dry and cold slowly giving way to mild wet and windy. Yuck!

 

Maybe this is just a blip but with all the output being much more progressive it looks likely we will need to reign in our expectations for the long term - at least until they give a clearer signal in the mid term.

 

Meanwhile we still have several days of cold and snow possibilities to look forward and we may yet see big improvements again this evening to so not all doom and gloom

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

What happened?

All of a sudden the models are much flatter and more progressive this morning with the ridge toppling over us. The change is across the output and in the ensembles too unfortunately.

 

graphe3_1000_263_102___.gif

 

If we are going this route and the Easterly is off the cards then it would be better to go the ECM route and hope for a trough to push South and a repeat of the currrent set up. It is too far East for that though this morning.

The alternative is a slow sinking UK high with the jet over the top, so dry and cold slowly giving way to mild wet and windy. Yuck!

 

Maybe this is just a blip but with all the output being much more progressive it looks likely we will need to reign in our expectations for the long term - at least until they give a clearer signal in the mid term.

 

Meanwhile we still have several days of cold and snow possibilities to look forward and we may yet see big improvements again this evening to so not all doom and gloom

All very predictable really. The Azores high has been incredibly strong this Winter and retrogression has been almost non existent. Coupled with this, the Siberian high has not wanted to play ball by not ridging westwards enough.
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Pretty confident it will stay cold under as SE Blizzard says a cold surface high before retrogression either northeastwards or northwestwards.

 

Can't see it turning SW'ly, February see's the lowest occurance of SW'lys of any winter month.

 

Anyways under an anticyclone at least the word "Marginal" will be put to bed for a while. :rofl:   

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

Good support for GFS 06Z OP on GFS 06Z ensembles for it turning anticyclonic week 2. :)

The current anomaly charts dont support the gfs 06z version of events...... Yet... But if the gfs 06z verifies as currently predicted, i dont see it being cold and frosty. With higher uppers drawn in off the atlantic in its northern flank circulating around, it smacks of inversion to me. So an overcast dirty high, dull miserable cold days. Now i like acg, so it might not be mild but itll be dry and usable.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

 

Can't see it turning SW'ly, February see's the lowest occurance of SW'lys of any winter month.

 

Anyways under an anticyclone at least the word "Marginal" will be put to bed for a while. :rofl:

Southwesterlies in feb, is that a fact or just an assumption?

Yep 'marginal' will be put to bed, along with snow! :p

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington

This is not a bad easterly for the south of the country Rtavn1261.gif Uppers and thicknesses would definitely deliver snow. Now for the the rest of the country it would be dry but if you are lucky enough to have snow cover these conditions will preserve it for a bit longer. Considering the dross we have had for the last two years that is not bad for the snow starved south and I just hope that by next weekend everyone will have seen some of the white stuff. Looking past next weekend the form horse is for a UK high or mid Atlantic high which hopefully would lead to a rinse and repeat pattern come mid month. That's my take on things although the met are keen on zonality from mid month so what do i know!!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

UKMO much flatter than GFS but looking to retrogress the high. As with this mornings ECM we would want to see the pattern backed West and a deep trough sink South through the UK.

 

UN144-21.GIF?31-17

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Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level

what's going on with the UKMO ??

 

+ 96 and it looks completely different to the GFS

 

UW96-21.GIF?31-17

GFS ...

gfs-0-96.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Freshwater Isle of Wight
  • Location: Freshwater Isle of Wight

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=2

 

Quite an upgrade on 24 hours ago with the cold pool extending further west over UK in the medium term  and a large area of snow develops over central Europe and edges NW towards the UK. This presumably on an occlusion as warmer air over the eastern Med and SE Europe pushes north and meets the polar continental airmass, 

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Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)

HP again building strongly end of the week on GFS 12Z,  will take a while to break that down, looking very precarious for the  mild zonal camp. :)

 

And some incredibly low night time temperatures if this chart was to verify.

 

gfs-0-180.png?12

 

-10 certainly not out of the question, especially places with snow cover.

Edited by SE Blizzards
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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

what's going on with the UKMO ??

 

+ 96 and it looks completely different to the GFS

 

UW96-21.GIF?31-17

GFS ...

gfs-0-96.png?12

 

Not much difference too me, UKMO has followed the ECM trend from last night of collapsing the easterly quickeer than first thought, a trend we are all too familiar with in these set ups.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

HP again building strongly end of the week on GFS 12Z,  will take a while to break that down, looking very precarious for the  mild zonal camp. :)

 

 

I much prefer dry frosty weather to mild wet and windy but overall it looks like any high will be at too lower latitude to get a strong Easterly so overall I would prefer to take my chances with the Euros and have the high pull back West and trough push down from the North into Europe as conditions will be favourable by that time for Greenland blocking.

Edited by Mucka
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I much prefer dry frosty weather to mild wet and windy but overall it looks like any high will be at too lower latitude to get a strong Easterly so overall I would prefer to take my chances with the Euros and have the high pull back West and trough push down from the North into Europe as conditions will be favourable by that time for Greenland blocking.

 

 

Yeah me too, i agree on this run but chiniomaniac said expect the high to be further north when we get there, thursday onwards still has time for adjustments,

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

I much prefer dry frosty weather to mild wet and windy but overall it looks like any high will be at too lower latitude to get a strong Easterly so overall I would prefer to take my chances with the Euros and have the high pull back West and trough push down from the North into Europe as conditions will be favourable by that time for Greenland blocking.

 

Looks to be too much activity near Greenland and off the eastern seaboard for high pressure currently to retrogress westwards to any effect for cold (currently/next week).

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Posted
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL

Look at the triangle polar vortex lol. Never seen an image like this! very unusual:

 

gfsnh-0-174.png?12

 

This 12z run from the GFS does look to prop the high up further north than the 6z. Only a little, but does maintain a NE feed until Thursday now. Little step in the right direction anyway :)

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

A very sluggish jet on GFS 12Z, looks like as normally happens in February the atlantic loses all strength, don't write off some stellar runs appearing in the week ahead. :)

 

I could show you many a winter where the Atlantic hasn't lost all strength in February (bit of an old wives tale of the last decade or so) hence so few cold february's.

It would be a first this winter if we could get a high pressure cell close to 60 latitude but I have the feeling UKMO might be closer to the outcome (unfortunately).

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Looks to be too much activity near Greenland and off the eastern seaboard for high pressure currently to retrogress westwards to any effect for cold (currently/next week).

 

 

That is what the current output shows and it has been the story of our Winter but if we get a trough dig South again further West we will see more amplification in the pattern and I expect the Atlantic to be quieter by then.

We are talking FI here so it is just idle speculation as to the possibility at the moment and it will likely appear among the ensembles before any op runs if it is a realistic possibility.

GFS may be on the money yet anyway.

 

Edit 

GFS ensembles coming out and p1 shows the sort of thing I am hoping for (though it looks much too fast with it)

 

gensnh-1-1-162.png

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

I could show you many a winter where the Atlantic hasn't lost all strength in February (bit of an old wives tale of the last decade or so) hence so few cold february's.

It would be a first this winter if we could get a high pressure cell close to 60 latitude but I have the feeling UKMO might be closer to the outcome (unfortunately).

 

February is comfortably the driest winter Month in England and Wales which suggests it is fact based.

It doesn't guarantee anything though of course. 

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

February is comfortably the driest winter Month in England and Wales which suggests it is fact based.

It doesn't guarantee anything though of course. 

True! - but not so dry as mentioned over the last decade or so...which gives an indication maybe of recent winters and lack of cold ones.

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