Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The gfs is trying to ridge and link up into Scandinavia which if north and north east enough would bring an easterly most models have shown this over the last few days.

So like you hunt for the azores mild zonal the others are just showing what they see.

 

Let's get one thing straight. In my first post this morning I wasn't hunting for any mild zonal, as you so quaintly put it, but just giving an honest assessment of the GFS run as I see it having looked at the whole run.

 

Rather than trying to get an easterly going it establishes a westerly and delegates the Scandinavian high to points east leaving the Azores HP isolated. Thus it establishes a zonal flow, not mild, I reiterate I didn't hunt this it's what the GFS says. If there is any hunting going on it's for the elusive easterly.

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nottingham
  • Location: Nottingham

Considering the Synoptics this winter, I feel many parts (roughly Midlands northwards) have got as much out of it as possible snowfall wise.

Moving forwards, it looks like cold will remain for another week but I think snowfall will be limited unless the high manages to squeeze further northwardS - possible but not the most likely option.

Following that an easing of the cold looks likely in the run up to mid February - no sign of a mild period though and there clearly seems to be the chance of more wintry potential at times with repeating patterns.

Unfortunately I just cannot see a true deep cold easterly setting up this winter

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Yes the BBC are referring to rain, sleet, snow this weekend but I am referring to next week and its worth mentioning snow is being reported as far S as Sussex.

 

The difference between today and next week is clearly shown on the output and im surprised you didn't notice this.

 

-4C upper temps today.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs032.gif

 

-7/-8C next week.

 

The slightly less cold upper temps for today have been predicted by the models for some time now!

Yes Dave, currently moderate snowfall in Redhill, Beeb / metO did not have this in their forecast on 6-30 SE report and I'm surprised at how much its coming down right now,  It goes to show dew points/temps are right...right now.... and with colder air filtering down cold be interesting with the disturbances in the northerly flow as it swings NE'ly,,,,so defo cold enough for snow as we continue in this COLD SPELL. 

For SE cold remains until next weekend, and until Thurs for most at least....and as you pointed out the other day when discussing with Richard [WIB] according to some models we were supposed to be on the brink of a breakdown now?

No doubt it may break down the line but folk mentioning reload....yep I'd go along with that

 

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

The start of the new week will feel bitter, With a very cold Northerly wind-chill pushing -8/-9850's over the whole of the UK.

 

48-290UK.GIF?31-054-583UK.GIF?31-054-7UK.GIF?31-0

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Let's get one thing straight. In my first post this morning I wasn't hunting for any mild zonal, as you so quaintly put it, but just giving an honest assessment of the GFS run as I see it having looked at the whole run.

 

Rather than trying to get an easterly going it establishes a westerly and delegates the Scandinavian high to points east leaving the Azores HP isolated. Thus it establishes a zonal flow, not mild, I reiterate I didn't hunt this it's what the GFS says. If there is any hunting going on it's for the elusive easterly.

There is around a 48 hour window (Wednesday through to Friday) where the winds do swing east/north easterly, this probably brings the coldest air of the entire colder than average spell, especially in the east. Beyond that we see a front move south Friday into next Saturday which could bring a possible wintry mix before clearing with a brief colder north/north westerly and then at this present time a change to drier and less cold conditions, perhaps milder with rain at times in the north.

EDM1-96.GIF?31-12

EDM1-144.GIF?31-12

EDM1-192.GIF?31-12

EDM1-240.GIF?31-12

 

At this point it is a case of eeking as much out of this as possible (length and depth of cold)

Edited by Captain shortwave
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

Why do people expect this pattern to reload once this cold spell eases?

The stratosphere has helped this current northerly with the vortex kept in Siberia but things are changing now and the vortex is moving back to Greenland.

We will need the help from the MJO. Any news from that?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

There is around a 48 hour window (Wednesday through to Friday) where the winds do swing east/north easterly, this probably brings the coldest air of the entire colder than average spell, especially in the east. Beyond that we see a front move south Friday into next Saturday which could bring a possible wintry mix before clearing with a brief colder north/north westerly and then at this present time a change to drier and less cold conditions, perhaps milder with rain at times in the north.

EDM1-96.GIF?31-12

EDM1-144.GIF?31-12

EDM1-192.GIF?31-12

EDM1-240.GIF?31-12

 

At this point it is a case of eeking as much out of this as possible (length and depth of cold)

Think you have nailed it here. It might be that for snow chances this is the week that makes or breaks the winter for many. The big, deep easterly has been taken firmly off the table overnight. It seems that For whatever reason this winter is simply not going to allow any high latitude blocking. We have seen several attempts but each time it's ended with a MLB. That said the temporary easterly midweek will be cold enough to give many areas in the south that have missed out a chance. -8 uppers should be enough to fire up some convection.

Still scatter in the GEFS and under normal circumstances I guess they would be considered a good set taking a cross section at 180 hours, so all is not lost. Hopefully this will be one of those rare occasions where the models drop an idea and then bring it back with a vengeance.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The GEFS anomaly at T240 shows the trop vortex over Hudson, ridging orientated NE/SW over the UK/Scandinavia and trough east/west Med. Translates on the surface to HP dominated zonal Atlantic with LP to NW and SE at a distance. The ECM anomaly is similar.

Charts courtesy weatherbell

 

 

post-12275-0-16260800-1422696672_thumb.p

post-12275-0-74961900-1422696678_thumb.p

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

good agreement this morning, with a pretty consistent pattern predicted for the next two weeks or so.

 

post-2797-0-87587100-1422696365_thumb.gi

 

giving pretty solid support to the week aheads northerly backing northeasterly

 

post-2797-0-40800000-1422696439_thumb.gi

some bitterly cold weather for a while, snow chances too, before the ridge topples

 

post-2797-0-77127100-1422696570_thumb.gi

 

supporting for the third day

post-2797-0-01275000-1422696613_thumb.gi

 

of course its not a done deal, however this  evolution is pretty solid for three days now, and whilst the timing might be pushed back (or brought foreward) i wouldnt bet against the noaa upper flow prediction being wrong.

i dont buy the jma's easterly, nor the ensemble members who suggest an easterly, as the anomaly charts are more accurate when in consistent agreement (john holmes has been spot on imho regarding the accuracy of these).

however IF the noaa charts show either of these possible patterns (ive drawn on in gold how the upper flow contours should look) then an easterly would be most likely. but until/if they do, theres no deep lasting easterly imho.

 

post-2797-0-58841900-1422697006_thumb.jp post-2797-0-80399300-1422697022_thumb.jp

 

 

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: nottingham
  • Weather Preferences: ice days,and snow,snow,snow...
  • Location: nottingham

The ensembles this morning look fantastic for cold, with the op being the main outlier.

This seems to me has been the case since the upgrade,with the op being on the mild side of things (generally)..

Don't loose faith coldies, expect the op to be dragged kicking and screaming into line with the rest over the next few days..

To me things look very positive for the cold to stay, with a good chance of very cold..

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
  • Weather Preferences: Snow! Exciting weather!
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

Small experiment

Anyone care to guess what conditions were like on the ground in the uk and what pattern followed this chart?

 

............I'll go for the fantastical!   GHP with undercut LP across the Atlantic and a strong Easterly produced :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

Small experiment

Anyone care to guess what conditions were like on the ground in the uk and what pattern followed this chart?

 

You rotter, you've cut the date out!  OK, it looks like it should be very cold on the ground, I'm going for a south easterly following (probably 100% wrong!).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Considering the Synoptics this winter, I feel many parts (roughly Midlands northwards) have got as much out of it as possible snowfall wise.

Moving forwards, it looks like cold will remain for another week but I think snowfall will be limited unless the high manages to squeeze further northwardS - possible but not the most likely option.

Following that an easing of the cold looks likely in the run up to mid February - no sign of a mild period though and there clearly seems to be the chance of more wintry potential at times with repeating patterns.

Unfortunately I just cannot see a true deep cold easterly setting up this winter

I tend to agree with you Kev, looking at the continental temps, the temp at Moscow is above freezing at the moment with the usual cold for a good easterly being some 1200 kilometres to the east. Most of the continent is also above freezing with the colder spots being in Northern Scandinavia.

 

Ideally to get a true beast from the east about -18C at Moscow is ideal, gradually warming to about -7 or -8C by the time it reaches Amsterdam giving us the prospect of ice days with about -3C.

 

For the most of the winter so far Moscow has been relatively mild, sometimes above freezing, with only a few days down to the ideal level.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey

Small experiment

Anyone care to guess what conditions were like on the ground in the uk and what pattern followed this chart?

 

Bit unfair as you've not shown the N Hemispheric view so no sure way to get a handle on the vortex positioning and what it might be up to. :):diablo:

 

Cold at the surface in the UK - most notably in the North at this stage as the developing block looks newish meaning the cold possibly hadn't pushed all the way south at least at the surface.

 

Going forward - it looks like a dig SE of the jet under the high is developing - so I'll go for high pressure from UK to Greenland with SE winds across the UK and a front straddling parts of the UK giving a decent snowfall.  :cold:  :)

Edited by beng
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

Small experiment

Anyone care to guess what conditions were like on the ground in the uk and what pattern followed this chart?

 

cold becoming colder behind a trough heading southwards, snow on the trough, snowshowers afterwards ASSUMING its a winter chart!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: East Anglia
  • Location: East Anglia

Well it does look like we will pick up an easterly feed for a while but rather like yesterday the method to get there keeps changing in detail. However, by the end of the week we still end up with the Azores high sitting just off the western approaches it seems almost set in stone that that will be the situation at the end of the week. Subsequently the shape orientation and proximity of that high will dictate our weather next weekend. In the mean time it's snowing hard here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

Over the past week we've had a lot of marginality, does anyone know when the colder upper temps are going to come across? I thought it was going to be this weekend!

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

Small experiment

Anyone care to guess what conditions were like on the ground in the uk and what pattern followed this chart?

easy!

 

High pressure toppling over the UK, to settle in Germany giving a long fetched southerly draw bringing in record 30c heat from Africa and a kick-ass spanish plume with severe thunderstorms?

 

:crazy:

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

The GEFS anomaly at T240 shows the trop vortex over Hudson, ridging orientated NE/SW over the UK/Scandinavia and trough east/west Med. Translates on the surface to HP dominated zonal Atlantic with LP to NW and SE at a distance. The ECM anomaly is similar.

Charts courtesy weatherbell

 

Not a zonal pattern by my interpretation. HP dominated - yes. But the "zonal" that all UK weather watchers are used to is certainly not what those charts show. The west to east flow is suggested to be in northern scotland and north of that; while an easterly drift somewhere in France looks likely. Meanwhile the UK would be frosty, and essentially dry - with the chance of the odd front drifting in from the NW depending on exactly where any HP set itself up. 

 

Obviously one's definition of what zonal means is at the heart of the interpretation here... but my perception of zonal is HP to the south and low pressure systems running through the heart of the UK. These charts show the HP anomaly too far north for that.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Over the past week we've had a lot of marginality, does anyone know when the colder upper temps are going to come across? I thought it was going to be this weekend!

 

Today much colder uppers will spill South, With -7/8c 850's over the UK by tomorrow. Tuesday could see -10c 850's over parts of the Midlands as shown below from the Nw/Extra suite.

post-12319-0-99503700-1422699566_thumb.p

Edited by Polar Maritime
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

Small experiment

Anyone care to guess what conditions were like on the ground in the uk and what pattern followed this chart?

Ridge toppled(hate that term)everything went ZONAL(hate that term),rest of winter was very mild(hate that term)and the even larger teapot(you know) continued.

P.S. Bet I am wrong

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

Today much colder uppers will spill South, With -7/8c 850's over the UK by tomorrow. Tuesday could see -10c 850's over parts of the Midlands.

 

 

 

Much better cheers

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...