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Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Absolutely, not forgetting this cold snap suddenly appeared from virtually nowhere and originally looked like a 'toppler' according to a lot of members. It's already at day 3 or 4 and we have another week or so of frosty weather (if not widespread snow) - which will leave us at a 12 day or so cold spell. Pretty good for any winters and to be honest, we'd only need another spell of snow in that time to match the winters of a few years back, which were colder but relatively snowless for my part of the Midlands. 

 

Winter doesn't show it's head until Mid-Jan onwards these days (or so it seems) and since then, this winter has been good - with a good chance of snow events to chase and some good synoptics. A much better winter this year, very little mild and not that much in the way of low pressure to be honest - a decent Feb and we will be looking at a 'reasonable' winter overall. 

 

Perhaps we're seeing a new trend.  Slow motion topplers!?

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

My preference via models #ECM#GFS#UKMO#GEM#JMA. Would from'immenent 00z suites.view EURO only out to +144. Then revert via northern hemispherical views.

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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

But you the Azores eggs over easy

 

You folk are making me homesick for a good Scottish fry-up. Eggs over easy, a Lorne sausage Scandi high and the omnipotent and essential black pudding of the vortex.

 

gfs-0-276_hzw9.png

 

Can anyone find the bacon - is there a nicely wound up low that can represent a fine slice of Ayrshire?

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Not sure if there's been any comments regarding this model tonight but, synoptically, would say the 12Z JMA is one of the best operational runs for continued cold and blocked solutions at 168/192 hours. Almost like the double-chocolate chip cookie of the model runs tonight. ðŸª

post-10703-0-65782200-1422660534_thumb.jpost-10703-0-23520300-1422660557_thumb.j

post-10703-0-50588100-1422660684_thumb.jpost-10703-0-31728400-1422660703_thumb.j

Despite less-cold 850 hPa temperatures creeping in from the North-East at 192 hours (which could turn any showers to the North-East/East or South-East less wintry), the JMA kinda looks good for substaining the Easterly flow over the UK with the High Pressure building further North than most other models. Although it does show the chunk of Vortex to the North-West trying to put pressure on the blocking High, it seems as though those Lows out West would probably just push the High further East/North-East towards Scandinavia and perhaps keep Southern areas locked into an Easterly flow. I think, in a way, it's one of those cases where it could be a battle between the amplified Atlantic ridge trying to ridge far enough North into Scandinavia before the Canadian/Greenland vortex and it's fearsome Lows try to knock the High Pressure back close by to our South-West or South. Even then, the Lows our West later next week may only break through to the North of the UK. While a gradual breakdown of the cold/cool spell is perhaps generally the favoured option at the moment, I think there's still a library of possibilities open for later next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Pressure hangs around to the south west in the high resolution timeframe before building more strongly in FI..

 

Rtavn3603.gif

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Absolutely, not forgetting this cold snap suddenly appeared from virtually nowhere and originally looked like a 'toppler' according to a lot of members. It's already at day 3 or 4 and we have another week or so of frosty weather (if not widespread snow) - which will leave us at a 12 day or so cold spell. Pretty good for any winters and to be honest, we'd only need another spell of snow in that time to match the winters of a few years back, which were colder but relatively snowless for my part of the Midlands. 

 

Winter doesn't show it's head until Mid-Jan onwards these days (or so it seems) and since then, this winter has been good - with a good chance of snow events to chase and some good synoptics. A much better winter this year, very little mild and not that much in the way of low pressure to be honest - a decent Feb and we will be looking at a 'reasonable' winter overall. 

 

 

Fantastic post, would sticky it in it's own thread if i was a mod, makes a change from the needless negativety we so often see, ensembles offer plenty of great solutions.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

GFS out to 216 hrs looks like it's lining up a rinse and repeat of the current pattern going forward. I.e vortex movement across from the western half of the hemisohere over towards the east. At that particular timeframe HP remains around the UK but I favour the above transition after that point on this run. We'll see.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

This mornings GFS run.

 

After T132 the UK is under the influence of the Azores HP, initially linked via Scandinavia to HP in eastern Europe and temps become markedly warmer relative to next week. By T240 the Azores HP is a separate entity and the usual interplay between LP to the NW and HP to the south begins. The ECM has a similar evolution.

Charts weatherbell

post-12275-0-58294600-1422686633_thumb.p

post-12275-0-23988300-1422686641_thumb.p

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

I'tll be interesting to read the comments on here regarding the short term models, especially the faxes because its really based on location as to whether you will be happy or not with them.....only yesterday the west was a favored area, now all troughs have been removed and the Mets text only mentions the odd light shower where as just 24hrs ago it was heavy frequent snow showers with tempoary blizzard conditions....a big shift! Still plenty of interest in the east:

 

post-2071-0-82129900-1422685892_thumb.gi

post-2071-0-94539000-1422685905_thumb.gi

post-2071-0-47555000-1422685920_thumb.gi

post-2071-0-75832500-1422685938_thumb.gi

 

Further on as stated above its high pressure in charge, any meaningful easterly looks a long shot barring a fleeting glance mid-week for the south east as the high finally topples.

Edited by KTtom
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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl

It looks like ECM is going for a reload?

 

ECH101-192.GIF?31-12

 

ECH1-192.GIF?31-12

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

Little change this morning in the output compared to yesterday with next week becoming clearer in my mind.

 

I shall begin by saying that some of you maybe wondering when it will turn colder especially at night. Well from tomorrow night onwards we're going to see much colder min temps with these dropping widely to -5C and in some parts of Scotland below -10C. The dewpoints will drop significantly tomorrow night onwards which will retain any lying snow members have.

 

Onto next week and the outlook is pretty easy. Some snow showers into E areas of Scotland and England probably peaking around Wednesday before fading away from the N. The SE could continue to see these until the end of the week though. Moving into next weekend we could see a band of snow moving SE from the NW which may turn to rain as less cold air sweeps in.

 

The further outlook does suggest it will become less cold, however the E will be the slowest to warm up and could remain cold into early next week.

 

 

Worth adding that the GEFS ensembles still show huge scatter.

 

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20150131/00/t850Cambridgeshire.png

Edited by TEITS
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Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .

 

Little change this morning in the output compared to yesterday with next week becoming clearer in my mind.

 

I shall begin by saying that some of you maybe wondering when it will turn colder especially at night. Well from tomorrow night onwards we're going to see much colder min temps with these dropping widely to -5C and in some parts of Scotland below -10C. The dewpoints will drop significantly tomorrow night onwards which will retain any lying snow members have.

 

Onto next week and the outlook is pretty easy. Some snow showers into E areas of Scotland and England probably peaking around Wednesday before fading away from the N. The SE could continue to see these until the end of the week though. Moving into next weekend we could see a band of snow moving SE from the NW which may turn to rain as less cold air sweeps in.

 

The further outlook does suggest it will become less cold, however the E will be the slowest to warm up and could remain cold into early next week.

 

 

Worth adding that the GEFS ensembles still show huge scatter.

 

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20150131/00/t850Cambridgeshire.png

I'm not sure you're right about 'snow showers' Dave, even this weekend the BBC/Meto are taiking about 'rain, sleet and snow' which I think is about right. The colder conditions are marginal for snow. In fact, a drop off in actual temp as opposed to how it 'feels' is only likely to emerge once the high pressure moves down, providing that is that we don't get a 'dirty high' which is a distinct possibility given its origins out west.

 

In terms of the model outputs the GFS is ironically the better because as you rightly point out there is huge ensemble scatter. The 0z op, like the 18z before it, was well out on the mild side in the longer term.

 

post-2020-0-57023300-1422688231_thumb.pn

 

In the timeframe Monday to Thursday there is still scatter and the op is the opposite: on the colder side, so I'd temper confidence about next week. This morning's Fax charts seems to back away from a northerly reload with a much slacker flow before the high belly flops on top of us.

 

post-2020-0-55864700-1422688367_thumb.pn

post-2020-0-16287800-1422688387_thumb.pn

 

The ECM and UKMO are pretty awful from a cold perspective so less said about them the better.

 

The worst thing about this setup is that unless you like this kind of cold marginality, and especially next week with the likely scenario in the models of the slow toppling high, is that it just eats up part of winter without producing much in the way of meaningful lying snow, at least down south. It's a thousand times better than last year, but all a bit 'meh' really. Empirically the CET remains about a degree above average for January and I can't at the moment from these models see the first half of February being all that dramatic a change from that.

Edited by Polar Maritime
To remove double quote.
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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

GFS trying to get the easterly going, some cold 850s clipping in !

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

I'tll be interesting to read the comments on here regarding the short term models, especially the faxes because its really based on location as to whether you will be happy or not with them.....only yesterday the west was a favored area, now all troughs have been removed and the Mets text only mentions the odd light shower where as just 24hrs ago it was heavy frequent snow showers with tempoary blizzard conditions....a big shift! Still plenty of interest in the east:

 

attachicon.gifbrack0a.gif

attachicon.gifbrack1a.gif

attachicon.gifbrack2a.gif

attachicon.gifbrack4.gif

Further on as stated above its high pressure in charge, any meaningful easterly looks a long shot barring a fleeting glance mid-week for the south east as the high finally topples.

For me nothing highlights the potential for change like markedly different fax charts within a short space of time.

it really feels as if there's two or three elements of a heads or tails in the atmosphere in the moment and how the coins fall will push us one way or the other. all heads and we head for 1978-79 again, all tails and spring gets ushered in, and either side of that we veer towards either a bit below or above average. Nothing gets resolved moving forward until each toss of a coin for that particular element is decided.

i'm hopeful that, based on IF comments referred to earlier which I saw quoted (but don't know where they were made) that once again he's provided an early indication of where the models we're seeing will be heading. Today's a day that i think will see more optimism that the tosses of the coin will end up being heads. But even if that's the case, at the end of the day it will still come down to chance. We either get lucky or we don't and the models are continuing to shpw both options on various runs

Edited by Timmytour
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

GFS trying to get the easterly going, some cold 850s clipping in !

Genuine question. On what do you base 'GFS trying to get the easterly going'? I ask because I've been through the whole run of the ops a couple of times and the GEFs and I cannot see any sign of this unless you are counting light airs from the Azores ridge.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Morning all

 

Looking at the morning outputs still the will it won't it easterly is sort of maybe! The issue is really how long this lasts and how much instability is possible with high pressure close by. For the timebeing its a little too far out to call as a hundred miles north/south corrections could either deliver a mainly dry affair or something more substantial in terms of snow showers.

 

The risk at present is mainly for the south, se and EA, the overnight outputs in the medium term generally sing pretty much the same song with high pressure moving in although you'll see that some colder air does get pulled south but just a little too far east around the high.

 

That could change as we are looking past T144hrs, the best output today in terms of both the easterly and cold extending is the NAVGEM, sadly not a model you'd want to trust but its set up is not outlandish especially in light of the continued divergence of the NWP view of the MJO.

 

So on the face of it some less cold conditions possible later but with the caveat that the models over the last week have tended to delay this so we'll see if that's the case this time.

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Posted
  • Location: Dover. Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, sun, thunder, storms, frosts, summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Dover. Kent

GFS centric posting needs balance . Here's the Chinese perspective:

cma-0-192.png

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Ok so I awake to snowfall on the ground on the south coast and using the net weather app I see it coming.

And consider this snowfall south coast in polar air not Arctic air!!!!!

From what I'm seeing this morning from the models is a swift easterly then a repeat for recent pattern.

But the striking thing is that it's very possible the vortex is going to move over to the Scandinavian side with possibly another artic reload possibly more substantial.

Over all I'm a bundle of joy kids are happy and although not white out conditions it's first snowfall in a couple of years down here!

after one or two post who think this is a straight in blast of mild blowtorch sw flow think again no chance.

Certainly will get milder but by far not above average so all the time it's average for the time of year then theres undoubtedly snow risks continue.

And every time we get a cold pattern the models struggle especially when there like knocker looking for a breakdown.

So a cold week ahead wintry showers perhaps suprise snowfalls like seen this morning on the south coast.

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Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)

I think we would have to call that the Danish dangler

At least there are heights upto Scandi but too far off to be taken seriously atm.If the Big Three start showing this as trends starting today and continuing then that would be more positive. Gut feeling it will be close but no cigar for this "proper cold"  and we need to tap into colder uppers from the continent. Not panicking yet but the clock is ticking and with Feb starting tomorrow it would be nice to see some HLB showing soon.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

I'm not sure you're right about 'snow showers' Dave, even this weekend the BBC/Meto are taiking about 'rain, sleet and snow' which I think is about right. The colder conditions are marginal for snow. In fact, a drop off in actual temp as opposed to how it 'feels' is only likely to emerge once the high pressure moves down, providing that is that we don't get a 'dirty high' which is a distinct possibility given its origins out west.

Yes the BBC are referring to rain, sleet, snow this weekend but I am referring to next week and its worth mentioning snow is being reported as far S as Sussex.

 

The difference between today and next week is clearly shown on the output and im surprised you didn't notice this.

 

-4C upper temps today.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs032.gif

 

-7/-8C next week.

 

The slightly less cold upper temps for today have been predicted by the models for some time now!

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

I think we would have to call that the Danish dangler

Indeed that's big sausage and has the potential to produce some fantastic winter charts

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