Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards

[Jason M]

About 25% with a 'proper' easterly. same sort of percentage for a more northerly or north easterly direction. Others with a slack flow or, god forbid, one isolated member with a north westerly.

A very interesting period coming up I think. Even taking the opp run and the met 144 chart it wouldn't take much for an easterly.

I don't pretend to know which way the cards will fall but it's a real possibility IMHO.

[bluearmy]

Looking through the GEFS at 150 hours I wonder if that comment may come back to haunt you!

 

Edit: Not saying it 'will' happen, but its a very brave man indeed that disregards a big easterly at this point.

I wasn't discounting an easterly Jayson, I was referring to the undercut of the first ridge beginning day 5. Any easterly will come via the Atlantic ridge extending ne and the euro trough staying strong which occurs post day 7.

[Jason M]

I wasn't discounting an easterly Jayson, I was referring to the undercut of the first ridge beginning day 5. Any easterly will come via the Atlantic ridge extending ne and the euro trough staying strong which occurs post day 7.

Fair enough. On that point I suspect you will be right. The mid term is getting more interesting though, especially as the old GEFS usually want to revert back to westerlies ASAP. Shame we don't have new ensembles yet.

[weather eater]

Fair enough. On that point I suspect you will be right. The mid term is getting more interesting though, especially as the old GEFS usually want to revert back to westerlies ASAP. Shame we don't have new ensembles yet.

Doesn't that make them next to useless,, the ensembles are supposed to be guidance for the OP but the OP is the new GFS and the ensembles the old.

[Mucka]

ECM probably the best of the output this evening at 120. Nicely amplified with the pattern backed west and the trough digging SW over Europe,

 

 

Also looks like snow for NW England on that chart?

Edited January 29, 2015 by Mucka

[Jason M]

No, they just need to viewed I a different way. I treat them and the new opp run as different models.

All output should be considered in the round. Even minor models

[Jonan92]

ECM

 

 

 

Amazing

[Mucka]

Very nice, Easterly inbound?

 

 

Pretty close to GFS.

 

Edited January 29, 2015 by Mucka

[weather eater]

No, they just need to viewed I a different way. I treat them and the new opp run as different models.

All output should be considered in the round. Even minor models

That just sounds a recipe for more confusion to me, it's bad enough just trying to way-up the pros and cons of the GFS vs the UKMO and the ECM. You can see that confusion caused by the kitchen sink of models, runs and their attendant ensembles just about every day of the year on the model thread, peaking in winter, sometimes I feel less is the new more.

 

[bluearmy]

Very nice, Easterly inbound?

Depends on quite a few factors mucka and the likelihood that the model has them all sussed at day 7 is small

Re the gefs - given that the new gfs was not verifying much better than the old one at day 10, I think the gefs can be viewed with confidence post day 8. I can see an argument for paying more attention to the new op pre day 7 but thereafter, the ensembles generally give better guidance unless there are clear reasons to give them less credence.

Edited January 29, 2015 by bluearmy

[SMU]

ECM 'ok' tonight-

 

However its all about the JMA tonight-  the best realistic run thus far....

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=24&mode=1&nh=1&archive=0

 

S

[Cloud 10]

ECM at 192 hrs looks like an action replay of how we got into the current cold spell,with a lump of vortex dropping down towards us,with a few extra bells and whistles on!

 

[Mucka]

ECM 'ok' tonight-

 

However its all about the JMA tonight-  the best realistic run thus far....

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=24&mode=1&nh=1&archive=0

 

S

 

That's very nice, a little undercut to go with that and its a long way out of this cold spell.

 

Depends on quite a few factors mucka and the likelihood that the model has them all sussed at day 7 is small

Re the gefs - given that the new gfs was not verifying much better than the old one at day 10, I think the gefs can be viewed with confidence post day 8. I can see an argument for paying more attention to the new op pre day 7 but thereafter, the ensembles generally give better guidance unless there are clear reasons to give them less credence.

 

 

Indeed. It wouldn't take much to show an Easterly at 168 from 120/144. Just a little slower upstream with some disruption South and a link up of heights to our North and things would of looked very different. It is probably better than JMA at 144 other than the faster flatter upstream it models so plenty of scope for improvement.

Edited January 29, 2015 by Mucka

[Man With Beard]

On the whole, awesome charts again tonight if you want snow. Several days coming up where snow cannot be discounted pretty much anywhere, except for a few hours tomorrow. Even as we head into FI, the return to mild keeps getting pushed back, though caution needed on anything beyond T120 in a UK cold spell as a slightly wrong track on a slider low could make many more places soggy rather than snowy.

[bluearmy]

The T72 FAX picks up the wave feature over Iceland that has come and gone on different ops recently. Interesting to see how that plays out on the day 4 and 5 faxes later. I suspect, if that feature is now a definite, it's going to cause a lot of consternation on here over the next couple of days as the placement changes every 12 hours.

[sorepaw1]

Over the last few hours My iPad air has melted it's just a pool of plastic.

With ,Looking at the above posts and current models. And looking at the rainfall radar,and the bbc weather and the news.its to much for me lol. I can't keep up.

I would say,"by next weekend we could have and easterly formed or forming.

The 12z looks very good imo. With that high pressure over the uk ,it will be a good chance to reset my grandmothers barometer.

[ITSY]

Nothing more or less realistic about cold or mild options Steve - it is misleading to people on here for sincere discussion to suggest so. We want snow yes, but it doesn't mean that every none snowy run can be consigned to the realms of unrealistic or not. Ens, eps and most models don't fAvour sustained easterly incursions so if anything JMA is wide of the pack. Could be right, could equally be wrong, but let's not mislead people!

[goosey007]

Nothing more or less realistic about cold or mild options Steve - it is misleading to people on here for sincere discussion to suggest so. We want snow yes, but it doesn't mean that every none snowy run can be consigned to the realms of unrealistic or not. Ens, eps and most models don't fAvour sustained easterly incursions so if anything JMA is wide of the pack. Could be right, could equally be wrong, but let's not mislead people!

Don't think Steve is misleading people - in my opinion and from what I have read from his past posts is that he is giving what he thinks is more likely outcome from the current synoptics. Whether you agree or not is of course up for debate - hence this forum and post charts to back it up. But to suggest he is deliberately misleading people by giving his opinion is a bit harsh .... don't you think?

Edited January 29, 2015 by goosey007

[Fred Sykes]

ECM 'ok' tonight-

 

However its all about the JMA tonight-  the best realistic run thus far....

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=24&mode=1&nh=1&archive=0

 

S

Oh come on Steve. JMA never gets credit! One good run does not = reliable model!

[Frosty.]

What a lovely Ecm 12z tonight, very cold next week with Northerly winds, widespread sharp frosts, high wind chill factor, a constant risk of snow showers which could merge. A very wintry feeling first week of February..could not ask for more.

[weather eater]

On the whole, awesome charts again tonight if you want snow. Several days coming up where snow cannot be discounted pretty much anywhere, except for a few hours tomorrow. Even as we head into FI, the return to mild keeps getting pushed back, though caution needed on anything beyond T120 in a UK cold spell as a slightly wrong track on a slider low could make many more places soggy rather than snowy.

The MO via the BBC seem to be edging towards the mainly dry after tonight/tomorrow morning, that of course will be subject to much revision. As for the models we feel a bit stuck at the moment waiting to see whether we are heading towards something less cold or whether they are going to pull a rabbit out of the sack. The ECM a case in point it looks as if it's going somewhere interesting but doesn't really manage it.

[blizzard81]

Nothing more or less realistic about cold or mild options Steve - it is misleading to people on here for sincere discussion to suggest so. We want snow yes, but it doesn't mean that every none snowy run can be consigned to the realms of unrealistic or not. Ens, eps and most models don't fAvour sustained easterly incursions so if anything JMA is wide of the pack. Could be right, could equally be wrong, but let's not mislead people!

I agree. Most of us are cold fans but up until today, the JMA was gunning for the early breakdown of the cold spell far more than any of the other major models. This spells volatile to me.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015012912/EDH1-168.GIF?29-0

 

ECM Mean 2 degrees colder at 850 @ 168 than the operational- more like the JMA!!!

S

 

Almost a BOOM!

[marksiwnc]

Can someone explain why the low is now going over Ireland and not in the Irish sea?? Is this likely to.mean.that precipitation is less.likely further.east???

[Frosty.]

Nice JMA 12z or should that be ice JMA..anyway it looks cold, any snow we get before the cold high pressure block forms would not melt, expect bitter cold nights over the snow fields..indeed, whichever model you look at for next week shows a very cold week with arctic air becoming entrenched. Just for once it would be nice to enjoy the cold spell instead of worrying about breakdowns to milder weather..Enjoy the cold for goodness sake! :-)