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Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

GWO plots continue to suggest 'lets go around again' in the further outlook. This time around we have goodies in the mix compared to mid January when a return to westerlies was suggested... but suspicions were confirmed and it didn't last beyond a number of days....and today is the 'all change day' 

 

Much as suggested in recent posts that should make a difference to our fortunes as we head through February - and model trends have been bearing this out.

 

Currently we are headed through that Atlantic amplified GWO Phases 1/2 towards flatter phase 3, but the attempted regrouping of the vortex has to recover from its displaced wall just to our east which looks set to lock in cold right over the next 10 days.

 

Add an ever growing colder Siberian High into the mix, rejuvenated by recent EAMT then the continuing predicted fast orbit of the GWO through flatter phases 3/4 has a harder task cut out for re-introducing milder westerlies.

 

I spoke recently about increasing torques having an effect on the reduced strength of the Azores High. Well this is now well advertised amongst the models and although it is still a player, its role now is restricted to playing a westward displaced amplifier from upstream. The Pacific pattern is locked retrogressively rather than sending an angry jet stream down towards us

 

That GWO orbit back to Phases 1/2 looks set to occur in the 10 to 15 day period and the holding cold trough to our north and east should have done its work by then. Result? Amplified northerlies leading to mid latitude cold High which has some chance at least of leading to a Scandinavian easterly to share some of the snow spoils around further still - before the next retrogression upstream sucks the whole lot westwards ...and we look north once again.

 

Next amplification has hallmarks to be sharper still - shortening wavelengths doing their trick, and who knows what that Siberian High might be up to by then...

 

So, same story as before. February features increasing amplification and the odds are gradually getting better and better on a proper cold block mid month but more especially thereafter :)

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.html

 

 

Another excellent post. A pattern not too disimiliar to Feb 2005 which saw mid atlantic block to start with with northerlies (not particularly cold mind), and then a major block settled in from the east and lasted a good 3 weeks well into March. Not saying this will happen.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Trouble is GWO or any other teleconnection has been overridden or muted this winter......

 

GWO plots continue to suggest 'lets go around again' in the further outlook. This time around we have goodies in the mix compared to mid January when a return to westerlies was suggested... but suspicions were confirmed and it didn't last beyond a number of days....and today is the 'all change day' 

 

Much as suggested in recent posts that should make a difference to our fortunes as we head through February - and model trends have been bearing this out.

 

Currently we are headed through that Atlantic amplified GWO Phases 1/2 towards flatter phase 3, but the attempted regrouping of the vortex has to recover from its displaced wall just to our east which looks set to lock in cold right over the next 10 days.

 

Add an ever growing colder Siberian High into the mix, rejuvenated by recent EAMT then the continuing predicted fast orbit of the GWO through flatter phases 3/4 has a harder task cut out for re-introducing milder westerlies.

 

I spoke recently about increasing torques having an effect on the reduced strength of the Azores High. Well this is now well advertised amongst the models and although it is still a player, its role now is restricted to playing a westward displaced amplifier from upstream. The Pacific pattern is locked retrogressively rather than sending an angry jet stream down towards us

 

That GWO orbit back to Phases 1/2 looks set to occur in the 10 to 15 day period and the holding cold trough to our north and east should have done its work by then. Result? Amplified northerlies leading to mid latitude cold High which has some chance at least of leading to a Scandinavian easterly to share some of the snow spoils around further still - before the next retrogression upstream sucks the whole lot westwards ...and we look north once again.

 

Next amplification has hallmarks to be sharper still - shortening wavelengths doing their trick, and who knows what that Siberian High might be up to by then...

 

So, same story as before. February features increasing amplification and the odds are gradually getting better and better on a proper cold block mid month but more especially thereafter :)

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.html

 

Tamara

what is different this time?  why have previous attempts failed and why wasn't this a target period from further out?  Many signals have been overridden and muted this winter, what is stronger this time?  Genuine question here as previous outlooks have ALL failed thus far.  I think prolonged cold of type is here, but trying to ascertain why its different from other perspectives.

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Nice GEM 12z adding to the longevity of the cold spell next week. Overall I think coldies should be happy with the latest developments from the models, we have an even colder arctic blast on the way during the weekend and continues deep into next week, no sign of anything mild and actually there are signs of a wintry reload occurring.

post-4783-0-76972900-1422478974_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-57666200-1422478996_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-51249200-1422479009_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-61623100-1422479057_thumb.gi

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GWO plots continue to suggest 'lets go around again' in the further outlook. This time around we have goodies in the mix compared to mid January when a return to westerlies was suggested... but suspicions were confirmed and it didn't last beyond a number of days....and today is the 'all change day' 

 

Much as suggested in recent posts that should make a difference to our fortunes as we head through February - and model trends have been bearing this out.

 

Currently we are headed through that Atlantic amplified GWO Phases 1/2 towards flatter phase 3, but the attempted regrouping of the vortex has to recover from its displaced wall just to our east which looks set to lock in cold right over the next 10 days.

 

Add an ever growing colder Siberian High into the mix, rejuvenated by recent EAMT then the continuing predicted fast orbit of the GWO through flatter phases 3/4 has a harder task cut out for re-introducing milder westerlies.

 

I spoke recently about increasing torques having an effect on the reduced strength of the Azores High. Well this is now well advertised amongst the models and although it is still a player, its role now is restricted to playing a westward displaced amplifier from upstream. The Pacific pattern is locked retrogressively rather than sending an angry jet stream down towards us

 

That GWO orbit back to Phases 1/2 looks set to occur in the 10 to 15 day period and the holding cold trough to our north and east should have done its work by then. Result? Amplified northerlies leading to mid latitude cold High which has some chance at least of leading to a Scandinavian easterly to share some of the snow spoils around further still - before the next retrogression upstream sucks the whole lot westwards ...and we look north once again.

 

Next amplification has hallmarks to be sharper still - shortening wavelengths doing their trick, and who knows what that Siberian High might be up to by then...

 

So, same story as before. February features increasing amplification and the odds are gradually getting better and better on a proper cold block mid month but more especially thereafter :)

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.html

 

 

Lasting into March Tamara?

 

Would love a proper cold block in March. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

Trouble is GWO or any other teleconnection has been overridden or muted this winter......

 

 

Tamara

what is different this time?  why have previous attempts failed and why wasn't this a target period from further out?  Many signals have been overridden and muted this winter, what is stronger this time?  Genuine question here as previous outlooks have ALL failed thus far.  I think prolonged cold of type is here, but trying to ascertain why its different from other perspectives.

 

BFTP

To be fair they've been going to plan for the entire month of jan .

December was where all long range forecasts went bust , apart from the met of course . Although the first 2 thirds of the month was meant to be zonal , it was the pattern over siberia and the polar feilds that didn't correlate to analogues . So it was a case of almost starting again and looking at the present teleconnections and try to figure out where we'r going. And to be fair , Tamara's posts have been not just informative , but accurate .

I would actually say the GWO cycle (and to a certain extent the MJo) has been the two main drivers this winter , the strat had played its part aswel of course , granted we didn't get the SSW but we did get the warming , but the absence of the Siberian/Asian high through december has had critical consequences since , but despite all this we'r still heading in the right direction , with things moving ever forward toward a more blocking scenario through February and into March .

Baring in mind we'r only just out the mid January cold spell , which when broke down , despite the models staring straight down the zonal loaded gun , lasted just a week , and now this next amplification has and continues to upgrade in longevity .

So rather than the next pulse of projected westerlies , we may just end up with 4/5 days of his pressure bringing cold frosty weather while slowly migrating toward the North East .

That's my take on things , slowly getting a handle on things I think , but it's a lot lot of damn learning I no that much !

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

To be fair they've been going to plan for the entire month of jan .

December was where all long range forecasts went bust , apart from the met of course . Although the first 2 thirds of the month was meant to be zonal , it was the pattern over siberia and the polar feilds that didn't correlate to analogues . So it was a case of almost starting again and looking at the present teleconnections and try to figure out where we'r going. And to be fair , Tamara's posts have been not just informative , but accurate .

I would actually say the GWO cycle (and to a certain extent the MJo) has been the two main drivers this winter , the strat had played its part aswel of course , granted we didn't get the SSW but we did get the warming , but the absence of the Siberian/Asian high through december has had critical consequences since , but despite all this we'r still heading in the right direction , with things moving ever forward toward a more blocking scenario through February and into March .

Baring in mind we'r only just out the mid January cold spell , which when broke down , despite the models staring straight down the zonal loaded gun , lasted just a week , and now this next amplification has and continues to upgrade in longevity .

So rather than the next pulse of projected westerlies , we may just end up with 4/5 days of his pressure bringing cold frosty weather while slowly migrating toward the North East .

That's my take on things , slowly getting a handle on things I think , but it's a lot lot of damn learning I no that much !

We've PM'd as had some specific questions and answered cheers, this set up is well anticipated ...I've been banging the drum for ages.  Just wanted to know the potential 'increased' confidence levels this time [which looks good] because Jan hasn't gone according to plan at all...for more or less all of us.   

Thought my post may stir things but I think not unreasonable due to the extra detail and knowledge Tamara puts into outlooks and posts.   Genuine interest 

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Pretty large downgrade uppers wise with the slider at day 4/5.

12z then 18z

(Edit: ironically the uppers are better at 132)

post-11585-0-14639800-1422482993_thumb.j

post-11585-0-17434400-1422483013_thumb.j

Edited by Weathizard
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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

We've PM'd as had some specific questions and answered cheers, this set up is well anticipated ...I've been banging the drum for ages.  Just wanted to know the potential 'increased' confidence levels this time [which looks good] because Jan hasn't gone according to plan at all...for more or less all of us.   

Thought my post may stir things but I think not unreasonable due to the extra detail and knowledge Tamara puts into outlooks and posts.   Genuine interest 

 

BFTP

Now you've got me interested lol?

I'm interested to no how jan hasn't gone to plan?? None of us were expecting a blocked month was we ? I certainly wasn't after the December shenanigans !

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Posted
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards in winter Hot and sunny in summer...other is simply boring!!
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales

Pretty large downgrade uppers wise with the slider at day 4/5.

12z then 18z

(Edit: ironically the uppers then are better after the slider 'slides'... Typical)

It completely misses us anyway trending south on the last few runs......so yes a downgrade on the uppers at this junction......but less annoying than if it was headed our way! This cold spell appears to be missing that major 'EVENT' as the current models are showing .....never know what may pop up though!! Edited by goosey007
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Pretty large downgrade uppers wise with the slider at day 4/5.

12z then 18z

(Edit: ironically the uppers are better at 132)

 

I wouldn't worry too much, up to 144 and it's just variations on a theme, no massive changes.  Smashing uppers over as at this time (and better than the 12z!!!)

 

gfs-1-144.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

It completely misses us anyways trending south on the last few runs......so yes a downgrade on the uppers at this junction......so less annoying! This cold spell appears to missing that major 'EVENT' as the current models are showing .....never know what may pop up though!!

Again there is a wave feature moving south late Monday into Tuesday which again gives a widespread spell of snow.

gfs-0-126.png?18

Still major disagreements on how the start of next week pans out with the exception of it being cold with snow showers around coastal areas. The risk of something more significant is still moderate in likelihood. 

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Posted
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
  • Weather Preferences: Snow! Exciting weather!
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border

Interesting feature down the spine of the country produces this!

45-780.GIF?28-1842-780UK.GIF?28-18

Edited by stratty
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Tonight's 18z looks truly wintry, especially next week with temperatures struggling to get above freezing, add in the wind chill factor and bone numbingly cold in exposure to the Northerly winds..

post-4783-0-57447000-1422483664_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-11174400-1422483676_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-71504600-1422483684_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-59013300-1422483693_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

It completely misses us anyway trending south on the last few runs......so yes a downgrade on the uppers at this junction......but less annoying than if it was headed our way! This cold spell appears to missing that major 'EVENT' as the current models are showing .....never know what may pop up though!!

 

Doesn't completely miss us this run, 18z still shows snow dropping south-eastwards over the UK, as its 4/5 days out and keeps changing every run, not to be taking to seriously..

post-15543-0-22452500-1422483798_thumb.p post-15543-0-96185700-1422483805_thumb.p

post-15543-0-57060800-1422483815_thumb.p post-15543-0-76287000-1422483822_thumb.p

Edited by Mark N
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Interesting feature down the spine of the country produces this!

45-780.GIF?28-1842-780UK.GIF?28-18

 

 

Yeah i noticed a band of precip over central england on friday on GFS 18Z with suppressed temps, hilarious how people are moaning about downgrades next week and miss this.

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Posted
  • Location: Dartford, Kent
  • Location: Dartford, Kent

The Met Office must be dismissing all the charts regarding snow, which have been posted above. Alex Deakin says dry over the weekend (save for snow showers round coasts) and dry next week. 6c on Monday in the SE according to the map on BBC weather.

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Posted
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards in winter Hot and sunny in summer...other is simply boring!!
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales

Yeah i noticed a band of precip over central england on friday on GFS 18Z with suppressed temps, hilarious how people are moaning about downgrades next week and miss this.

Yes hilarious if you live in the west midlands.....hope you get a good dumping !!! Looks that way looking at these charts......

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Posted
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex

I think the concerning thing is that the gfs has picked up a new trend for next week to flatten that high and bring the

Atlantic back. Whether it's FI or not the ensembles have been hinting this.

But the good news is that in the reliable it's looking nice and cold with rain/sleet and snow, proberly nothing for my area but no change there.

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