Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards

[Snowman.]

GEM is a solid 10/10 run (If you ignore the 850 uppers bug)

 

It offers the best run we've seen this winter in a relatively close time frame.

[MR EXTREMES]

Yes the sausage in the GFS output is firing blanks! lol The UKMO projected forward would more likely be quite virile! And be the higher quality Murr Sausage!

 

For newer members in case you wonder what on earth is going on, the Murr Sausage is named after Steve Murr who coined this term to describe a high pressure elongated sausage shaped located to the north of the UK stretching all the way into Russia.

lets just say a steve sausage special richmond lancashire special is as rare as a 63 winter.

but unlikely to happen but still that does not take away the excellent up and coming event.

 

i was watching the gem what a beauty but its modelling is dire to say the least.

but the one thing ive noticed about the two models gem and ecm they normally get very excited about hlb then drop the idea after a couple of runs normally after people gone out to by eskmo coats and sledge for evey member of the family,

but just recently they have not been so keen which in itself shows especially the ecm is modelling well.

 

the ukmo tonight really does block of the alantic and is very consistent in its modelling holding back the lows exiting the ne states so very likely that although heights from our west look likely to topple you could possibly put another 3 to 5 days of cold settled weather across the uk with the hope that heights link up to our ne although this depends on weather the lower pressure sticks to our northeast.

 

over all im looking forwards to the ecm but even now a little peek a boo behind the sofa the sinking feeling of downgrades is not fun at all but as said not likely to dramtically completely do a full circle back to zonal of coarse never say never.

 

gefs ridges cutting in all over the pole

looking nice to

[Timmytour]

Yup GFS keeps the surface cold well out into deepest FI even where it loses the cold uppers

 

 

We just need the ensembles and ECM (And JMA which has been very keen on a quick breakdown) to get on board and we can really start to get excited about what February may have in store.

I think I'll scream if JMA has it right this time. The amount of times its been alone in promises of heaven which have never materialised. Surely, surely, this can't be the one time the weather does exactly what it said on the JMA tin when it's not on any of the others?

[gottolovethisweather]

Omega Block!!

 

Yes indeedy, the best example yet. That would prolong the cold for sure, well into week two of February if it were to verify I'd suggest. Folks, keep on the look out for a continuation of the same shaped pattern showing the mid-Atlantic high and trough positions in similar positions in future outputs. 

 

The Pros were hinting at it too, well certainly there was mention of an Omega Block pattern setting up as this post from Fergieweather on the 22nd January indicates.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82300-model-output-discussion-16th-jan-12z-onwards-smile-while-you-post/?p=3136491

 

Long may it continue I say.

Edited January 28, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[pages]

Not Quite.

Close but no cigar.

 

12Z pretty good, GFS a bit sloppy but MANy snow opportunities for the coming days.

 

Ignore the channel low, Its a huge outlier scenario.

Its not an outlier now look at the ensembles just rolling out its on most of them at 120hr

[weather eater]

Me I rather suspect though I was looking for something closer to home, while its just for fun and far out from the GFS this from the GEM is not. Shame the GEM is not reliable enough and shame its really still only MLB and not HLB. all the same its tasty.

Someone complained that there were only tentative hints from the Ops of pressure over Scandi.. well.. GFS 12z heard you, and raised you this

 

Boom.png

 

(Way, way out. Posting for fun)

Edited January 28, 2015 by weather eater

[MisfitDog3]

GFS seems keen on pushing cold deep south into the States over the next week. Is that likely to have an effect on Atlantic activity? I know the two aren't intrinsically linked but presumably it can wag the jet stream tail, as it were? 

[winterof79]

GULP......

 

I shall be inspecting the GEFS later 

[Eugene]

I'm surprised there isn't more excitement over GFS 12Z, stellar run with a scandy high/atlantic undercut in FI, yes 850's aren't special but you can get away with much lower 850's in a continental setup.

[MR EXTREMES]

GFS seems keen on pushing cold deep south into the States over the next week. Is that likely to have an effect on Atlantic activity? I know the two aren't intrinsically linked but presumably it can wag the jet stream tail, as it were? 

interesting you say that i might be wrong but when cold heads down the eastern seaboard of the states it does seem like we get colder to.

09/10 im sure is an example.

[pages]

ensemble 7 has lost the plot, collapses the ridge very early then somehow ironically develops a massive arctic high by 180hr

 

Edited January 28, 2015 by pages

[Weathizard]

Its not an outlier now look at the ensembles just rolling out its on most of them at 120hr

By me just quickly looking in the majority of the ensembles it slides too far SE into France. Some still bring snow for Southern England though despite not being traditional 'channel lows' as such.

Peturb 18/19 will do for me channel low wise.

Edited January 28, 2015 by Weathizard

[MR EXTREMES]

dont want to ruin the mood but the gefs does show the heights toppling with massive vortex

with no lower heights to our south although i suspect still cold surface temps but very fi as it depends on how the low pressure systems and high pressure eventually set up so no big deal.

but worth a mention

but still cold nippy another reason why the cold spell is likely to take at least 3 to five days to remove even longer if heights stay situated over the uk

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

GULP......

 

I shall be inspecting the GEFS later

Not without interst as we move through feb IMO , certainly can't see a strong zonal jet , my worry is the deep cold over the states may fuel it , but plent of examples of cold over ther aswel as hear , not sure how long the siberian vortex will last but it does look it will move back toward home , but with Europe heading into the freezer it should help build high pressure over there just hope it can get into more Northern Territory .

[Paul_1978]

I'm surprised there isn't more excitement over GFS 12Z, stellar run with a scandy high/atlantic undercut in FI, yes 850's aren't special but you can get away with much lower 850's in a continental setup.

Because it's at 300+ hours and it's one run?

[Cloud 10]

Here comes the small LP at 96 hrs on the ECM to reinforce the cold pattern.

 

[Day 10]

120

 

 

[chris55]

ECM 120 brining "leading edge slider snow" to parts of the West!

 

 

Also the NH view is looking pretty agreeable! (I think lol) lets see how the run pans out!

Edited January 28, 2015 by chris55

[Mucka]

ECM 120 brining "leading edge slider snow" to parts of the West!

 

 

Yes that would set the cat among the pigeons I expect.

Cuts across the SW of the UK and Exits the South coast. Widespread snowfall I expect. Look forward to the analysis of others.

 

Edited January 28, 2015 by Mucka

[EML Network]

I know we're not supposed to try and 2nd guess what comes next, but I'm not liking the ECM. 

 

That Low looks like it's going to smash right through the UK on this run and mix out the cold air ?

 

* Edit, OK I'll shut up now

 

(Idiot mode cancel)

 

Edited January 28, 2015 by EML Network

[chris55]

Easterly in the making?

 

Edited January 28, 2015 by chris55

[shaky]

Fantastic ecm this evening! ! Has the slider low slightly further east but brings more widespread snow!!

[chris55]

 At 144 ECM brings another developing disturbance down the country, south east looks snowy.

 

[bluearmy]

This particular ECM op has the sw low further east than gfs and a bit slower. The ne Scotland fella a few hours late comes south through the heart of the uk. Some large snow totals from this run although the DP's look marginal when the precip is evident. The raw ECM data is consistently showing this which makes it tough to know when the run indicates snow and not snow. the snowfall total charts from ECM are also questionable - last week, it was showing 1" in the south Central England within 12 hours of the run commencing when it also had Dp above zero. I think best left to the pros although the odds on a snow event somewhere across the uk next Tuesday just be shortening fast.

[Banbury]

This particular ECM op has the sw low further east than gfs and a bit slower. The ne Scotland fella a few hours late comes south through the heart of the uk. Some large snow totals from this run although the DP's look marginal when the precip is evident. The raw ECM data is consistently showing this which makes it tough to know when the run indicates snow and not snow. the snowfall total charts from ECM are also questionable - last week, it was showing 1" in the south Central England within 12 hours of the run commencing when it also had Dp above zero. I think best left to the pros although the odds on a snow event somewhere across the uk next Tuesday just be shortening fast.

Is that based on the current ECM run?? if so a very very early judgement