Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards

[Alexis]

Can't believe how quiet this forum is. We're about to go into the coldest spell of the season, where is everybody?

 

UKMO and GFS at 120 similar with the "almost channel low", UKMO looks better long term with more amplification of the high

 

 

 

 

Tapping our fingers since we have high uppers to get through tomorrow and Friday before the real cold kicks in!

[bluearmy]

Is that the "Murr Sausage" i see at T+210hrs.

Nope - a murr sausage would deliver cold. If it doesn't deliver a proper cold pool it's a sausage at best. That one looks more like a bagel

[winterof79]

 

 

 

It's always the same Daniel as soon as the cold begins to bite everyone leaves for the regional's, which rather proves the point that in winter this thread is just a snow chasing one and very few are that interested in synoptic models unless snow is in the mix. Nothing really wrong with that I guess and I suppose (and I include myself here) we just hate to admit we are still all little kids at heart and snow brings that out in us.

 

Mean while in model land we have some of the best continuity I have seen for a cold spell modelled by the operational runs since 2010. The only disappointment for those of us who want to see a really prolonged and bitter cold spell is that we cannot seem to get the ops to do more than give some faint hints at possible heights to our NW.

When it is snowing outside one tends to be distracted somewhat.

 

Interesting distubances as TEITS says.Prefer the UKMO at 144z lets see if ECM follows with a N/Easterly waft.A cold High pressure seems the likely outcome after the cold at present.

 

Where it sets up and meanders is another thing.

Edited January 28, 2015 by winterof79

[TEITS]

GEM is going to excite some members.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2015012812/gem-0-150.png?12

 

Steve M will appreciate this run as beyond could be tasty!

[Great Plum]

Out to t204 well out of realistic timeframe but the high is dropping South shutting off the cold feed, something the ensembles are hinting at

However, and this is deep FI, but cold uppers returning west at 240 hrs ( the South East never having lost -5 air!)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.gif

[Met4Cast]

The GFS eventually manages to topple the high towards Scandi but it's a very slow affair, can't quite imagine reality being like that's shown

 

[wightwootton]

GEM is going to excite some members.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2015012812/gem-0-150.png?12

 

Steve M will appreciate this run as beyond could be tasty!

Omega Block!!

[Mucka]

GEM is going to excite some members.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2015012812/gem-0-150.png?12

 

Steve M will appreciate this run as beyond could be tasty!

 

Yes GEM is the cobra run but the model is pretty poor so I would have to go with UKMO/GFS solution as much more likely

 

 

Nice to see it modelled though and who is to say ECM won't come up with something similar and set the forum alight?

[winterof79]

However, and this is deep FI, but cold uppers returning west at 240 hrs ( the South East never having lost -5 air!)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.gif

Battle ground but as you say miles away.

 

Not warm air that the Atlantic would encounter either

Edited January 28, 2015 by winterof79

[nick sussex]

Nope - a murr sausage would deliver cold. If it doesn't deliver a proper cold pool it's a sausage at best. That one looks more like a bagel

Yes the sausage in the GFS output is firing blanks! lol The UKMO projected forward would more likely be quite virile! And be the higher quality Murr Sausage!

 

For newer members in case you wonder what on earth is going on, the Murr Sausage is named after Steve Murr who coined this term to describe a high pressure elongated sausage shaped located to the north of the UK stretching all the way into Russia.

Edited January 28, 2015 by nick sussex

[Smiler1709]

Omega Block!!

[bradymk]

The high to the east still holding on as we move into low res on the GFS 12z, energy starting to go under to the west with some trough disruption too at +276

[Weathizard]

I wish that vortex over Greenland would just do one! Winding me up now, it's like it teases us - a trend appears for it to drain away and it always seems to power back up with vengeful fury.

GEM looks good but it's cannon fodder IMO, hoping to see a switch in the GFS ensembles soon.

[Eugene]

The GFS eventually manages to topple the high towards Scandi but it's a very slow affair, can't quite imagine reality being like that's shown

 

gfsnh-0-228.png

 

 

I can, a scandy high - atlantic battle is the most likely evolution IMO.

[weather eater]

Indeed that's pretty sensational and that's what I keep hoping the GFS UKMO and ECM would offer some hints at. But I guess given the time scales then jam today will be gone before we get to taste it, that's what usually happens. Better for those sorts of chart to appear at 96hrs.

GEM is going to excite some members.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2015012812/gem-0-150.png?12

 

Steve M will appreciate this run as beyond could be tasty!

[MR EXTREMES]

Nice to see the models not making any dramas over that shortwave, both the GFS and UKMO clear this se. The latter though is more favourable going forward in terms of developing a colder east/ne as the ridge is likely to topple towards Scandi.

 

The UKMO looks to bring in 850's around -10 on its T144hrs output.

vortex certainly being pushed and pulled around still feel that theres a chance of a scandi heights just dont feel like the vortex will take much more until it completely open up the arctic area to allow futher developements through feb i always said feb would be the month and as been suggested its the last winter month when heights become more featured although with the vortex still pretty close to greenland then always a risk of a return to the weather type we have had through out this winter.

 

if lower heights stay to our south and dont move to far away then the possibilty to a scandi block is pretty much a possibilty.

and so far that developement is as likely as a return to zonal.

 

bit of a noob when coming to these charts but is this not high amp phase 8-1 and is this conductive of hlb ?

although the nao does dip briefly to neg but then returns to plus value not that im bothered because if a snow flake falls at least we can say its been a few years lol

[Mucka]

Battle ground but as you say miles away.

 

Not warm air that the Atlantic would encounter either

 

Yup GFS keeps the surface cold well out into deepest FI even where it loses the cold uppers

 

 

And given that it is probably the least favourable of the output so far this afternoon at the mid term for a cold pattern setting up then I would say we are in a very good place for an extension of the cold this afternoon.

We just need the ensembles and ECM (And JMA which has been very keen on a quick breakdown) to get on board and we can really start to get excited about what February may have in store.

[Met4Cast]

I can, a scandy high - atlantic battle is the most likely evolution IMO.

 

I was referring to the evolution the Atlantic took to develop the Scandi High, I wasn't discounting a Scandi high scenario 

[Eugene]

Nope - a murr sausage would deliver cold. If it doesn't deliver a proper cold pool it's a sausage at best. That one looks more like a bagel

 

 

 

Well the most tastiest bagel i have ever had, this bagel is not to be messed with.

[shaky]

Brilliant start to the evening!! Lets hope ecm continues the wintry output! ! Gfs forms a scandi high and just persists over scandinavia for the rest of the run!!

[SMU]

Omega Block!!

 

Not Quite.

Close but no cigar.

 

12Z pretty good, GFS a bit sloppy but MANy snow opportunities for the coming days.

 

Ignore the channel low, Its a huge outlier scenario.

[Dunlop Dave]

Just wondering what the established members here make of the channel low for Monday into Tuesday ? Obviously not your typical channel low but looking good to coat the Channel Islands again like the low of March 2013 ?

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Can't believe how quiet this forum is. We're about to go into the coldest spell of the season, where is everybody?

 

UKMO and GFS at 120 similar with the "almost channel low", UKMO looks better long term with more amplification of the high

 

UKMO 

 

120 UKMO.gif

 

GFS

 

120 GFS.png

 

GFS goes onto produce a shortwave feature running down the Eastern side of the country

 

Shortwave.png

 

gfsnh-2-144.png

 

Possibly banned (or driven away) from all the squabbling!  Or can't take any more near misses and wanted to wait until T24 to be sure!!!   

[bradymk]

well the UKMO, GFS and GEM all showing a great start to the 12z runs. GFS and UKMO both show the shortwave moving south eastwards monday cleanly. GEM develops it more and it stays further north, close to southern britain, very unlikely outcome though i think, better chance is from the possible snow moving south through tuesday. Very cold UKMO 144 chart as winds start to swing more to the North East. GFS different and then moves the high eastwards over us before moving to the east and doing its best to prevent the Atlantic. The atlantic doesn't even make it in during low-res though and the trough disrupts, but don't think the chart will look like that come then anyway. It could be a long cold spell, heres hoping.

Edited January 28, 2015 by bradythemole

[Met4Cast]

Someone complained that there were only tentative hints from the Ops of pressure over Scandi.. well.. GFS 12z heard you, and raised you this

 

 

(Way, way out. Posting for fun)