Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

I'm very sceptical of these charts from the ECM at the moment. It has performed poor for a good while now. I think we will see something similar to what the gfs is showing at the moment. Although not as great as the ECM it has much more potential further down the line. Think if anyone is expecting a deep freeze with heavy widespread snowfall then I would say your setting yourselfs up for dissapointment. I think we will see snowfall for the usual suspects. But my bet at the moment is that the gfs will be closer to reality than the ECM and ukmo.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

Righty! I'm confident.. Because of this, and it is model related.. We all accept that the professionals have access to much more data than us mere mortals. Just viewing the latest froecasts and tweets is really telling me that they are seeing something interesting for cold and for them to start calling it out not so early only increases my confidence.

Previous cold spell was never really convinced the pros.. This time it seems so much different.. Glosea5 & MOGREPS are not freely avaivable if at all on the net for a reason..

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

ECM looks good to me not too far off from 00z, 240hr it topples 10 days out, the good thing there's much water to go under the bridge best to dismiss at this stage, the surface cold will be impressive, And disturbances running N to S born from unstable airmass will yield many surprises, up and down the country. GFS might not be pretty short term but it provides longevity, I hope the ECM shows a similar outcome...

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

A warning's been issued for 1 to 2 ft of snow coming this week

Unfortunately it's for New York! If only the PV could drop down over us! Any perturbation modelling that? :)

Edited by Timmytour
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex

Been so busy last few days I haven't had much time to check the mods, what I can see is lots of potential and many days of cold biting winds with dine experiencing some good snowfall and the rest some decent hard frosts. Positives are this winter has blitzed last winters performance and even though not one single snow flake has fallen here I'm happy that it's been abit more seasonal. I'm keeping my expectations low with this current spell forecast due to being abit disappointed with the last cold spell. Hopefully I'm surprised. People seriously need to just relax in regards to upper temps, snow falling areas and how long thus lasts because otherwise your drive yourself mad. Hope everyone is well.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

why do you think this? How about posting a couple of charts to tell us why you think the GFS will triumph over the Euros?

Seriously, it's like groundhog day reading your posts.

well I can't posts charts at the moment due to been in hospital and only having acess to my phone. The reason I think the gfs might be closer to the actual outcome is that so far this winter it's been closer to the mark more often than not. I just feel that the ECM has performed poor this winter. But these next few days should tell us who's right. Anyway back to my wonderful hospital food.!!!
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Pembrokeshire

This has always been on the marginal side - FOR LOWLAND SOUTHERN UK - potent PM followed by mid Atlantic ridging - this is not a downgrade - certain areas will do very well out of this with significant snow - especially Scotland and Northwestern UK - it is not and never has been a nationwide freeze

Edited by Jonathan Evans
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

The crazy headline of a certain newspaper dismissed by the METO saying nothing unusual for Jan...now as our coldest month I'm not sure if that means UK wide disruption looks unlikly or this type of cold can happen in Jan. Either way an interesting week, especially as I'm in Cumbria from Wed for 6 days...good timing I hope.

One small feature running South on thoughs winds could easily cause UK wide lying snow if timing was right.

Edited by Ali1977
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

I think the clues in the name ?

The worrying thing about longevity on both ukmo and the ecm at the same time frame is how that low interacts with the Azores!,

It looks like it's going to win the race by obstructing the Azores high from moving into Greenland

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

A warning's been issued for 1 to 2 ft of snow coming this weekUnfortunately it's for New York! If only the PV could drop down over us! Any perturbation modelling that? :)

If we get something Similar to P6 some parts of the UK will have 1 to 2 ft of snow before the cold spell is over, hope something like this is the outlook. As things stand, later in the week I'm sure there will be Amber warnings for snow, gales and ice..Bring it on.

post-4783-0-06190700-1422218344.png

post-4783-0-23909000-1422218351.png

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows less Azores high intrusion by day 10 compared to the op. Beyond Tuesday, coldies are in for some fun!

post-4783-0-71757200-1422219682_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-52887900-1422219694_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-42671000-1422219702_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-43138400-1422219713_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-92854400-1422219722_thumb.gi

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Can we leave what the papers say to other threads please.

Let's keep on topic and keep to model discussions in here.

Thanks.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Can we leave what the papers say to other threads please.

Let's keep on topic and keep to model discussions in here.

Thanks.

As it appears that this was ignored I have taken the liberty of moving the posts into the appropriate thread. If your post isn't here then it is likely there.  

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69782-weather-in-the-general-media-newspaper-features-etc/page-210

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl

 

But the Azores still sits there waiting to pounce , I can't even remember the last time that Azores high wasn't there, does it ever go away ???

Well the centre of the Azores high was mainly over Spain for the last two years and I lived their throughout and was the most boring (no) weather ever.

Since Xmas the centre has been very much on a mid Atlantic cruise-well displaced and responsible for the mild/cold repeats that we have had this month and has been quite good for many.

As many of the experts have said, its the lack of amplified patterns moving along the high from USA that have prevented a higher Azores ridge and a blocking feature.

I agree it could be a hundred miles or so further west ideally but without amplification it could well return to the Azores and give repetitive maritime s.westerlies like last year. Any further west and another high would just fill its place from the east. So it's not perfect, but it's the best place imho and very similar to 2010 and has already provided a fascinating January so far.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well the centre of the Azores high was mainly over Spain for the last two years and I lived their throughout and was the most boring (no) weather ever.

Since Xmas the centre has been very much on a mid Atlantic cruise-well displaced and responsible for the mild/cold repeats that we have had this month and has been quite good for many.

As many of the experts have said, its the lack of amplified patterns moving along the high from USA that have prevented a higher Azores ridge and a blocking feature.

I agree it could be a hundred miles or so further west ideally but without amplification it could well return to the Azores and give repetitive maritime s.westerlies like last year. Any further west and another high would just fill its place from the east. So it's not perfect, but it's the best place imho and very similar to 2010 and has already provided a fascinating January so far.

 

 

Great post, Good to see someone happy with this winter, December wasn't bad overall, no persistent bartlett high this winter either.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers /snowy winters
  • Location: Peterborough

The NAO may go negative for a short time - however then trending positive again - a cold start to February soon to be replaced by milder conditions

But isn't that forecast based on the GFS output .

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...