Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards

[Catacol]

Charts are catching my eye a bit now after the let down of last week. Detail uncertain - but Mucka has very effectively demonstrated that the model trend is heading in a colder direction,with 850s upgrading for cold each run. The general theme of northerlies was evident as an option a week or so ago when strat forecasts showed a draining of energy from the Canadian sector, but I must admit I had not expected to see an ever sharpening pattern quite so quickly.

 

Interesting times - yet again. The winter of 2014/15 looks unlikely to go down as a "classic" but it has been one of the most wild rollercoaster model watching rides I can remember for a few years. I wonder if we could get Chio's cut off trough drifting SW? That really would bring snow potential to all. For the south northerlies are often all too dry - we need a bit of west/east influence to bring moisture in off the sea. Either that - or a freak frontal assault into cold air.

 

As an aside I took a group of 6th form students to an archive in Taunton not long ago, and we were casting our eyes over the marriage register that survives from the 16th century. On one page was a bizarre sudden entry, presumably from an over excited church clerk, that read something like "So much snow fell today around Taunton that people were seen to be drowning in it." Perhaps 400 years ago people were as excited by snow as some of us are today... 16th century "coldies"! - and without a Netweather forum what better place to stick an excited comment than a marriage register! "Drowning in snow." Hmmm - I would like to have seen that. Sounds wonderful...

Edited January 24, 2015 by Catacol_Highlander

[Frosty.]

I like it when a cold spell is on the way because I get to post these beautiful looking charts. The BEST spell of wintry weather arrives during midweek and it looks like digging in for a considerable period...phwoarrr

How any coldie can be negative about the 12z runs is beyond me, I think we are looking at the very least a 7-10 day cold spell with ample snow opportunities.

Edited January 24, 2015 by Frosty.

[ANYWEATHER]

Why not post something which contributes to the thread?

My post was based on what the model was showing. Posting about the models in the model thread? Whatever next :-)

Please do try harder!

Look , please stop the snipping , Its gonna get cold , but how cold, how much snow, windchill, sleet ,hail ,freezing rain no one knows. get the cold in first and then lets make a thread of how much snow Is in your backyard    

[Weather Wizard]

ECM very good for the UK with some wintry potential even down south, but for the US that is just plain ridiculous -24 uppers down to North Carolina!!!

[Mucka]

I think I'd give it 7/10, it doesn't split the PV this time and the depth of cold is okay but nothing great. There is room for improvement especially upstream.

 

Some snow chances but at this range detail is likely to change, overall not a bad run but I'd hope there would be better ensemble members.

 

Wow, tough crowd in tonight. 

You could be the bad guy panelist in one of the reality talent shows always finding fault and I could duly boo you. 

 

I know it would be nice to see an Atlantic ridge extend into Greenland and a cut off high modelled but concentrating on what ECM does model rather than doesn't, there is a cold spell looming with lots of potential for heavy snow to low lying areas (albeit I agree with Steve, with optimistic reloads but it has been a theme across the output as well) 

 

Even at day 10 if we don't just fixate on Greenland there is a shortwave NW of Ireland that would develop and run South and while the ridge would topple it would also likely stretch out toward Scandi (Because of undercut on Eastern flank due to said shortwave/trough) and the bowling-ball low just W of Greenland would likely begin to disrupt in the next frame. A 264h chart could actually look quite promising for an easterly setting up.

 

I don't have much optimism for height rises into Greenland anytime soon so the self perpetuating trough/ridge scenario as portrayed by ECM this evening looks very good to me especially given the way this winter has gone so far.

 

Maybe my expectations have just been lowered but the output seems even better than yesterday evening overall and much better than days previous to that and people seemed pretty excited by the possibilities back then.

Edited January 24, 2015 by Mucka

[bluearmy]

just to note that the dp"s on that ecm op were sub zero from T102 to the end apart from a warm sector around day 9 when the wave drops down the east coast. the warm sector brief but at day 9 not worth analysis. the point being that for most of the uk, whatever falls from the sky once the CF has gone through mid week will likely be white. the question then becomes how the system post day 8 approaches to try and force a breakdown (which it wont). and the ecm 12z op has reasonable precipitation throughout considering the low dp"s.

 

now to the ens to see if they continue the extended theme of flattening and pushing the trough east.

Edited January 24, 2015 by bluearmy

[nick sussex]

Lol! great post Mucka, as long as people don't start calling me the Simon Cowell of NW!

 

I'm not expecting any proper Greenland blocking but still a chance of some ridging to the se of that area. I promise to be happier if/when the ECM delivers that high in my posted image.

[Mucka]

Lol! great post Mucka, as long as people don't start calling me the Simon Cowell of NW!

 

I'm not expecting any proper Greenland blocking but still a chance of some ridging to the se of that area. I promise to be happier if/when the ECM delivers that high in my posted image.

 

So long as you don't wear pants up to your nipples there will no chance of confusion. 

 

Yeah fingers crossed for further improvements on the depth and longevity of cold however we get there. 

[bluearmy]

as the ecm mean dribbles out, i notice that at day 5, the dam of the low over ne scotland is 498 !!!  now i know we have to take slp into account to derive the actual thickness but when was the last time a system with such a low raw dam was over the uk?

Edited January 24, 2015 by bluearmy

[ukpaul]

Wow, tough crowd in tonight. 

You could be the bad guy panelist in one of the reality talent shows always finding fault and I could duly boo you. 

 

John Holmes - Len Goodman 

Frosty - Bruno Tonioli

Tamara - Darcy Bussell

??? - Craig Revel Horwood

 

.....and on topic

 

 

 

 

 

 

Would be nice to get 2m temp down but that's a pretty good setup.

[Iceberg]

mean 850s from EC are -5 to -7 from Thursday to Tuesday across the country, rather nice and reinforces the minimum 4-5 day view.

Very little real spread either so good solid support

[nick sussex]

as the ecm mean dribbles out, i notice that at day 5, the dam of the low over ne scotland is 498 !!!  now i know we have to take slp into account to derive the actual thickness but when was the last time a system with such a low raw dam was over the uk?

BA what do you make of the spread to the nw at T240hrs. The 850's spreads look to me to confirm that as high pressure.

[Day 10]

Feel free to move mods but thought I'd post this in a busy thread. Britain's most extreme weather is on More 4 at 9.10pm tonight, it's all about the winter of 62/63. Was first aired last year I think. Just thought people in here would be interested if they didn't already know.

[ANYWEATHER]

Well there is only so many words you can describe cold for the Uk

[Mark Neal.]

Day 8 ECM mean

 

DAY 9 ECM mean

DAY 10 ECM mean

Edited January 24, 2015 by Mark N

[stratty]

Well there is only so many words you can describe cold for the Uk 

 

'marginal'

Edited January 24, 2015 by stratty

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean rubber stamps the cold wintry outlook as far as I'm concerned, I have seen plenty of damn ugly charts this winter but these sure are pretty. The cold spell starts at T+96 and looks to me like it will still be going strong beyond T+240 hours..for coldies all across the uk it's time to stop enduring and start enjoying winter at last. :-)

Edited January 24, 2015 by Frosty.

[PolarWarsaw]

ECM....garden path...no blocking...moderated uppers closer to the time...chance of slipping east at last minute....Welcome to Winter 14/15 on NW. 

 

Charts look quite exciting tonight, but until they come anywhere close to T72 and show signs of holding true or improving/upgrading at that range, then they are just a computerised solution that is starting to come together and bring a vauge level of consistency. That's the way it shall be until T72 and that's the way ALL should approach the charts, mild, cold, snowy, windy, stormy, wet..etc. 

 

Let's hope we are onto something, but at the moment - no expectations, no dissapointment.

[EmmaF]

Please excuse my ignorance but the last cold spell (or day) got slowly shunted west with every run will this do the same and move east and end in zero again ?

[nick sussex]

 I'm pretty sure that the ECM has a cluster of solutions that take the low near Greenland on day 9 south further west, this would be in relation to a more amplified upstream pattern.

 

The 850 spread at day ten develops strongly over Newfoundland, this is in relation to a much milder flow ahead of a more amplified low, the slp spread develops to the nw indicating higher pressure there.

 

SLP

 

 

850's

 

 

 

 

 

[The Enforcer]

Even I am struggling to find fault with that particular output, except to enquire whether the precipitation chart is based on GFS data, which is notorious for exaggeration?

Edited January 24, 2015 by The Enforcer

[The Enforcer]

Please excuse my ignorance but the last cold spell (or day) got slowly shunted west with every run will this do the same and move east and end in zero again ?

I do worry that the close to perfection appearance of the current set of charts at certain timeframes means that we may have 'peaked' and subsequent outputs (there are 16 GFS and 8 UKMO/ECM outputs to get through before Wednesday evening) will be deficient for widespread snowfall in at least one of the key requirements.

Edited January 24, 2015 by The Enforcer

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

The Ice man cometh....amen

 

 

Below is yet a new 'my best chart of winter'

 

 

This is brewing and brewing to a 'severe event'

 

Downgrades to come?   Maybe but this is one steady build up, gradually bit by bit upgrading....concerningly interesting.... 

 

BFTP

Edited January 24, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[kevvo]

Feel free to move mods but thought I'd post this in a busy thread. Britain's most extreme weather is on More 4 at 9.10pm tonight, it's all about the winter of 62/63. Was first aired last year I think. Just thought people in here would be interested if they didn't already know.

Can you not post a chart to illustrate your comment? 

[Yarmy]

Can you not post a chart to illustrate your comment?