Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards

[Day 10]

not bad atall!!

[Harsh Climate]

Very happy with the continual upgrades in the charts

 

[Ice Day]

Into low res territory, but the heights up towards Greenland is something to keep an eye on!

 

 

Super upper temps at 288 (I know, deepest FI)

 

Edited January 23, 2015 by Ice Day

[Day 10]

Into low res territory, but the heights up towards Greenland is something to keep an eye on!

 

Maybe just maybe the winter will go out with bang!

[damianslaw]

Some of the charts have an air of Feb 83 about them!

[chionomaniac]

Mr Murr - I like the GFS answer to your post, say it again, but louder! LOL

[Harsh Climate]

Unbelievable run, shame it's deep in FI

 

[TEITS]

Certainly is pleasing to see the medium range upgrade. However for now I remain cautious because the models suggest a very cold, nationwide spell is unlikely to develop until around +240 onwards (2nd/3rd Feb). This is apparent on the 12Z GEFS ensembles.

 

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20150123/12/t850Cambridgeshire.png

 

Still we have time for the intial NW,ly to upgrade and the period after.

[bluearmy]

And strangely, the end of low res sees one of the largest vortices of lowest thicknesses I can remember over arctic Canada!

Hey ho, the bigger split by day 10 helped that amplification through most of the remainder of the run.

[SMU]

Ha ha the turkey teeth is certainly present in the GFS 18z tonight as we see the -10c line arrive in the uk in FI

If we look close the GFS follows the ECMs lead at 240 with ridging north - west of greenland , which I do believe I did comment on in the original post

S

[Trom]

Just had a read through the thread and thought that I would pick up on this post - it's easy to say that the posts have 'zilch' chance of achieving but is that really the case?

 

Firstly, in the last 5 years we have have seen charts like not only materialise but upgrade significantly, so just because the last cold spell may have not lived up to your expectations, doesn't mean that this one won't. (Not that the last cold spell was anything other than modelled pretty well - it was just us who looked at the more severe runs and dreamed).

 

Then we have a number of background signals that suggest tentatively that this could be a realistic outcome, namely the strat, possible MJO forthcoming signature and favourable GWO pattern. The ensembles are trending towards a significant below average spell as well and for the first time the GFS has a potent -15ºC 850 run:

 

MT8_London_ens.png

 

The period between 29th Jan and 1st Feb is also trending more and more cold with less mild members, so agreement increasing.

 

I have been confident that we would see a cold spell towards the end of January for some time now - the real question is how severe can it get leading into February - it may peter out - but then again it may not......

Maybe the charts should carry the same disclaimer that financial services have, "past performance is no guarantee of future performance" 

Edited January 24, 2015 by Trom

[The Weather Dragon]

Promising medium range charts tonight - need to see these synoptics to be consistent across all main models at t120z

[blizzard81]

Mr Murr - I like the GFS answer to your post, say it again, but louder! LOL

Not often I see you this animated Chio! Have you had a few? Lol

[bluearmy]

Thus is london in a mean n or nw airflow. Why all the misery?

Though checking the Rome rainfall for week 2 does promote lower heights to our south and a cold MLB nw Europe as a decent cluster.

Edited January 23, 2015 by bluearmy

[Timmytour]

Steve Murr Heaven?

Edited January 23, 2015 by Timmytour

[Jason M]

GEFS rolling out. Out to almost 300 hours now and IMHO the best set of the winter.

Some real cold runs in there. They are not universally cold though, so I'd not be getting too excited yet, but it's nice to see some depth of cold in some of the runs.

For better or worse, I think the moment of truth for this winter is about to arrive :-)

[TEITS]

GEFS rolling out. Out to almost 300 hours now and IMHO the best set of the winter.

Some real cold runs in there. They are not universally cold though, so I'd not be getting too excited yet, but it's nice to see some depth of cold in some of the runs.

For better or worse, I think the moment of truth for this winter is about to arrive :-)

Just looked at them and your spot on some very cold runs appearing.

 

Looking at the ensembles to +180 and I see a few sub -10C appearing.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015012318/graphe3_1000_305_80___.gif

 

This is something I would like to increase tomorrow because I really don't fancy waiting till +240hrs especially after such a poor winter so far.

[blizzard81]

Just looked at them and your spot on some very cold runs appearing.

 

Looking at the ensembles to +180 and I see a few sub -10C appearing.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015012318/graphe3_1000_305_80___.gif

 

This is something I would like to increase tomorrow because I really don't fancy waiting till +240hrs especially after such a poor winter so far.

Yes, I am with you there. This is now make or break for this Winter. Like I said last night, this is not your normal toppler scenario. Two reasons for this. First, the trough digs south east into northern Germany instead of due east into northern Scandi. This then facilitates the second reason whereby the Azores high cannot easily topple over the UK. Instead, it is forced west/northwest and this has been the trend of the day

[bryan629]

Evening all,

 

just musing through the ECM anomoly charts and way out at the end of this evenings run i find this

 

 

i was wondering if this would be classed as an `Omega` block.?

 

 

[Mucka]

UKMO is cold this morning with a screaming long fetch northerly, not seen on of those for a long time.

 

 

GFS has the trough more rounded and doesn't run it so deep into Europe so more mixing of the uppers going on but chilly if not cold for most.

 

 

GEM also brings forward the cooler NW flow by Wednesday and has a deeper trough.

 

 

Generally the output seems to be still upgrading any cold snap/spell digging the trough down deeper and displacing the AH more quickly across the output. Fully expect ECM to come on board this morning as last nights 12z output is out on its own by 120h with the AH ridged across Southern UK and trough to the North. That won't be repeated.

 

GFS Op Fi does have low pressure disrupting SE to our NW but doesn't do a good enough job to push heights into Scandi.

 

 

GEM has another nice FI with strong Northerly flow which would likely be quite snow (Bit of a cannon fodder model these days though)

 

 

Overall UKMO is fantastic as is GEM but not as cold initially while GFS is decent but lots of mixing of the uppers going on and flattens out in FI.

Edited January 24, 2015 by Mucka

[TSNWK]

Morning.. Yes! Where has the UK gone on that UKMO 144 chart,those purples look so dramatic and certainly a nice block to our west in my view.

With regard to those purples how can you tell if they are cold or not ? Anyway nice start to the day folks.. ECM rolling.

[Polar Maritime]

ECMWF also looking great this morning for the projected Northerly. The PV is in tatters across the board..

 

Edited January 24, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[MR EXTREMES]

did someone order a cold spell well we wanted a cold spell and possibly one of the best in years.

absolutely sprinting into early time frame and the models nearly every single one have been throwing out the same ideas for at least two to 3 days already.

and although uppers on some are not totally perfect its the trend that matters most pattern is building.

 

so ive put my toys back in my pram ive returned my computer to its original working order and thrown the prozac in the bin.

because if there was any moment this winter that shows real cold its just recently they are classic winter charts to be honest id go as far as to say vintage.

 

well i dont need to say no more all these charts are at 144 ive looked at the ecm futher on and i dont want to look again as i dont want to jinx anything.

but 144 and solid build up of cold to our north and northeast forget easterly look nw north and omg northeast.

 

reminds me very much of the cold spell of 09/10 and how it started.

but stratosphere looks like its been a big help this time round.

 

i was pretty certain that the end of jan and feb would change to a colder pattern even though its been cold but now we have something looking more exciting for other parts of the uk that have missed the fun.

 

nice post,s recently by tamara who carried on banging the snow drum although plenty of small details to be settled its looking pretty solid so far.

[MR EXTREMES]

Evening all,

 

just musing through the ECM anomoly charts and way out at the end of this evenings run i find this

 

ECH101-240.GIF3.png

 

i was wondering if this would be classed as an `Omega` block.?

yep wow beautiful chart

[SMU]

Morning

 

A better ECM today- however we have been here before this winter- almost the exact same synoptics that failed to land-

The model trying to deliver a wave 2 pattern, however with modest heights over greenland there isnt enough blocking to sustain a Northerly, but with the 552 Line making it to Greenland, toppling High pressure towards Scandi might be an option.

 

Not overly cold on the ECM however an improving picture as at least the higher pressure is driving more CAA-

 

In terms of Omega block, im afraid not & still unlikely with no blocking over GH.]

 

S

Edited January 24, 2015 by Steve Murr