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Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

I'm gonna say this is best case scenario for coldies, this shows at least a 6 day freeze....Not what the METO

are predIcting 

Pretty sure the Met Office will come on board when they are more certain .plenty more runs needed ,but certainly some good charts popping up .current GFS run showing big difference at about a week away compared to last run ,tonights ECM needs to reflect the same ,cheers  :cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

will the trend continue?...

good model agreement, possible snow, upgraded, brought forward and extended.

should make my drive to newcastle next friday quite interesting...

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Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness

Looking at GFS and UKMO at t144 they both look in good agreement

 

Its a shame we don't have the 850's for UKMO but GFS shows its cold enough for snow though temperatures could be on the marginal side for some lower levels

Lowest it shows for here is 3C. It was below 2C when the precipitation turned up this week and it still rained. So this indicates existence of a mild sector again.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Quite a strong move toward having the UK under a cold trough from day 5 within GFS 12z ensembles which brings any cold and snow prospects forward as with the Op.

Many ensemble members that previously had the UK under a strong ridge now have us in a cold PM flow for the same time period. It should show up in the ensemble graphs and seems a marked and clear signal.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness

Pretty sure the Met Office will come on board when they are more certain .plenty more runs needed ,but certainly some good charts popping up .current GFS run showing big difference at about a week away compared to last run ,tonights ECM needs to reflect the same ,cheers  :cold:

Or the Met Office will issue no warnings and the charts will come on board.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare North Somerset
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare North Somerset

Good model agreement now, I expect some upgrades will start to show in respect to the uppers , which don't look Cold enough for a directly sourced Northerly , Although the trough to the East depending on it's position , may moderate 850's slightly . With the Azores far enough West it also would leave open the option of small disturbances spreading down the West of the uk , giving some frontal Snow. Exciting times . 

 

Chris

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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

Yes it does look nice, however...... after the last failed "cold Spell", I'm refusing to get to drawn in this time. ECM needs to follow suit now and this place will be buzzing again I'm sure.

 

You and me both, it's actually failed twice now...

 

However rather than just a moan post, let's hope the model's factor in how strong this northerly might be, any mild sectors etc

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Tbh, the cold spell currently ending didn't manage to get good naefs agreement beyond the brief disruption and a few colder days.

Signs this morning that naefs was beginning to trend towards the ecm end and perhaps more so looking at the 12z suite.

At the moment, this looks like a 5 day cold spell, possibly longer by a day or so.

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

I guess a lot of members will feel the models have been drinking I can't believe my eyes such a turnaround from the 00z.I must say this winter these colder spells seem to be popping up at short notice.last I looked it wasn't happening till 31st now I see gfs UKMO at 144 showing direct artic blast,I honestly believe there is only one way forward Upgrade!!

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Best set of GFS by far this year, the 1 or 2 day Arctic blast is now a 5 or 6 day one....â„ï¸â„ï¸â„ï¸

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Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)

Lowest it shows for here is 3C. It was below 2C when the precipitation turned up this week and it still rained. So this indicates existence of a mild sector again.

 

The uppers will be much colder this time round due to the Arctic sourced air so marginality will be less of a factor if those charts come to fruition will it not?

 

Oh my days have we not learnt from last coldish spell ?? the chances of these charts materilising at this range are zilch!!!! :wallbash:

There seems to my untrained eye much more inter and intra model support for a cold spell this time round than with the last spell.

Whilst it is impossible to say at this range if and where any of the white stuff will fall, I would say there is at least a 50% chance of a UK wide cold snap (possibly spell) even at this stage.

All eyes on the ECM....

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Best set of GEFS by far this year, the 1 or 2 day Arctic blast is now a 5 or 6 day one....â„ï¸â„ï¸â„ï¸

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Posted
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire

Surely by the very mere nature the model has produced such an output means there is a possibility and subsequently your argument is flawed.

Increasing trend on 12z of another coldish spell coming. Details to be added as we near.

Oh my days have we not learnt from last coldish spell ?? the chances of these charts materilising at this range are zilch!!!! :wallbash:

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Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness

Just to add to Paul's post, if you view the charts on Netweather, your chances of snow will increase by 50%...

Gladly, but it would help if the charts updated at the same time as elsewhere. Still waiting for the UKMO, which others could see over an hour and a half ago.

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Posted
  • Location: Eshaness, Shetland Islands
  • Weather Preferences: Cool and Stormy
  • Location: Eshaness, Shetland Islands

Whilst the 12Z outputs are very encouraging, lets not go overboard by making comments such a "big freeze".

 

At the moment it looks as though any snowfall will be your typical wishbone effect of largely affecting coastal areas. Many inland locations would remain dry and for the S the max temps would still reach around 5C. However at this range it is difficult to work out any troughs that may develop within the N,ly flow but these generally weaken as they travel S.

 

So lets take into account members locations. Yes the 12Z outputs are very encouraging if you live in a location that is exposed to a N,ly flow. However a big freeze for all of the UK is not being shown.

Couldn't put it better myself! The output from the models show a *risk* of settling snow in the N/NE/NW and lowland snow away from here would be minimal (at present). However, the output has been very volatile so I would hesitate before celebrating! Detail will change over the coming days.

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire

Whilst the 12Z outputs are very encouraging, lets not go overboard by making comments such a "big freeze".

 

At the moment it looks as though any snowfall will be your typical wishbone effect of largely affecting coastal areas. Many inland locations would remain dry and for the S the max temps would still reach around 5C. However at this range it is difficult to work out any troughs that may develop within the N,ly flow but these generally weaken as they travel S.

 

So lets take into account members locations. Yes the 12Z outputs are very encouraging if you live in a location that is exposed to a N,ly flow. However a big freeze for all of the UK is not being shown.

 

Agree. 12z charts on the GFS would normally be excellent for my location but I dont think it will be cold enough at the moment for anything at low level and there is also along way to go before next weekend. I see no freeze but may be a longer colder spell.

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Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Mild winters, wet & windy summers
  • Location: Hampshire

Remember folks, northerlies are always over rated. It might look good on the charts but the temperature modification, due to the expanse of water the northerlies travel to reach the UK usually make it a non event apart from favoured spots in the north.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

I wonder if the models bringing in the colder more quickly is a response to the current MJO, against all forecasts last week its still currently in phase 7.

 

Its at low amplitude but was expected at this point to be in the COD.

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