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Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards

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A new thread as we come out of the recent colder spell and head into a new phase of weather..

 

As ever, please keep it to friendly model related discussion in this thread, and head over to the banter thread for moans, groans, ramps and more general chat:

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81281-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-autumnwinter-2014/

 

We also have the winter thread open for a wider discussion on the winter, how's it's gone so far and so on:

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81936-winter-2014-15-thread/

 

If you're wondering where you can view the models, many of them are available here on Netweather, including the GFS, ECM, Ensembles, our own NetWx models, and others - all available from the Charts and Data page here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts-and-data;sess=

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Well lets see if the next runs can keep the potential cold for next weekend going. If that Mid Atlantic ridge can form and hold for a while then things might well look up for the whole country this time round.

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Even colder run coming I think, maybe starting on Thurs.

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brief as on IPad in Wengen.

take a look at the 6-10 and 8-14 NOAA anomaly charts. Both show a degree of upper flow from North of west if it is colder not milder wx you favour, that is in the 6-14 day frame. Even the mjo MAY help lookiing at the gfs version!

Light snow here and more fro the weekend, sorry to rub it in!

And looking on the Net Wx comparison charts, both ec and gfs are not too far from that idea out to 240h, so take heart coldies

Is that a ramp from John Holmes! lol

 

I'm looking at the models for some signs that the initial Northerly/North Westerly will not be toppled quickly but maintain a slow breakdown from the West to perhaps be replaced by a reload. Some supportive height rises over the NW or NE would be good.

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No UKMO on Meteociel?

 

EDIT: sporadically rolling out now 

Edited by karlos1983
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Some big early changes here as early as T126hrs on the GFS 12hrs run with the PV  splitting and more dig south of the troughing over the UK.

 

We need that low upstream to split and send a shortwave se into the UK.

Edited by nick sussex
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Even colder run coming I think, maybe starting on Thurs.

Snow kicking in by next Wed

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Snow kicking in by next Wed

 

Hmm, I'm in Holland next Wednesday Thursday so the Models bringing the cold in earlier is most welcome!

 

gfs-2-144.png?12

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Snow kicking in by next Wed

 

Yes by 144hr we see Snow risk for the whole of the UK, With a cold N/W flow.

 

gfs-2-144.png?12 gfs-1-144.png?12?12gfs-0-144.png?12?12

 

Much better Heights pushing up into Greenland..

 

gfsnh-0-150.png?12

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Some big early changes here as early as T126hrs on the GFS 12hrs run with the PV  splitting and more dig south of the troughing over the UK.

 

We need that low upstream to split and send a shortwave se into the UK.

 

It would be nice to see if the UKMO agrees, we shall see in the next few mins

 

EDIT: looking at +96, there are differences though

 

gfsnh-0-96.png?12?12

UN96-21.GIF?23-17

@120 looking very similar!

 

gfsnh-0-120.png?12

UN120-21.GIF?23-17

 

Nice finish by UKMO @ 144 - BANK

 

UN144-21.GIF?23-17

Edited by karlos1983
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It would be nice to see if the UKMO agrees, we shall see in the next few mins

 

EDIT: looking at +96, there are differences though

 

gfsnh-0-96.png?12?12UN96-21.GIF?23-17

I'm not sure I'm in the mood for the  UKMO in case it does a Scrooge output so hopefully the server temporarily goes down! lol T162hrs come on GFS! shortwave se into the base of the UK troughing please!

 

We now want rid of the Azores high its done its job, we need a cut off low near Iceland.I'm not sure the GFS will manage it but we need another shortwave to eject se from the Atlantic and separate the Azores high from the ridge near Iceland.

Edited by nick sussex
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If the ECM follows this GFS next week could be fun....gale force Northerlies would bring some very low wind chill figures and plenty of snow.

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The cold Northerly continues with -8c-850's touching Scotland and -4's/5/6's over the UK it will feel bitter adding on the wind chill.

 

gfsnh-1-198.png?12150-290UK.GIF?23-12gfs-6-210.png?12

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I'm gonna say this is best case scenario for coldies, this shows at least a 6 day freeze....Not what the METO

are predicting.

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I'm gonna say this is best case scenario for coldies, this shows at least a 6 day freeze....Not what the METO

are predicting.

 

Yes it does look nice, however...... after the last failed "cold Spell", I'm refusing to get to drawn in this time. ECM needs to follow suit now and this place will be buzzing again I'm sure.

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Looking at GFS and UKMO at t144 they both look in good agreement

 

gfs-0-144.png?12UW144-21.GIF?23-17

 

Its a shame we don't have the 850's for UKMO but GFS shows its cold enough for snow though temperatures could be on the marginal side for some lower levels

 

120-779UK.GIF?23-12144-779UK.GIF?23-12168-779UK.GIF?23-12

120-580UK.GIF?23-12144-580UK.GIF?23-12168-580UK.GIF?23-12

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It's very nearly a split vortex.. A great 12z run, With the trend continuing for a UK wide cold spell developing by the turn of the Month. Fantastic model watching over the last few days, And more to come i would hazard a guess  :)

 

gfsnh-0-216.png?12

Would be super cold over much of Europe based on that Chart with the UK under Arctic flow sourced from Northern Siberia. Todays runs seem to have advanced the cold for this time next week, lets hope for model agreement this time tomorrow. I am sure ECM this evening will also advance the cold post 144 hours.

C

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Look's good but those GFS precipitation charts are about as reliable as leaving a fox incharge of your chickens!

For example it shows snow for EA & SE tomorrow!!..........yeah right!

gfs-2-18.png?12

 

I always try to use the high res (0.25°) that doesn't have the snow in the SE at t18

 

18-779UK.GIF?23-12

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