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Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat


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Hi Dave (TEITS) Given the flip flop models and the slightly off key outputs this morning I though I would ask how the seagulls are doing today.   :)  Cos if they are not performing then zip chances for snow .

 

Been lurking for years but not posted that often, followed the seagull forecast with interest in the past. BTW how do you reply directly to a poster without quoting their post? Also how do you send an IM?

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I think those going round in circles dissecting forecasts from different forecasters (or the same ones at different times) are just going to tie themselves in knots here. You're in the SE of England,

yeah she just text me the same-

Just had a peak at the 18z UKMO (meso) and it shows the centre of the small low moving SE across the Midlands around 3am then across SE England around 6am, sleet/snow showers swirling around this low

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Rather downbeat this morning.  Woke up to rain instead of snow and with Ian F's latest comments suggesting a return to milder zonal weather towards mid February, this could well be another winter without seeing any meaningful snow.

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Has become notably colder in the last hour dropping back to 0.6c here with the snowcover holding on the grass (just) As Vesuvius said it really was laughable how 1cm of Snow around here brought Rayleigh to a standstill, I know there are some pretty tricky hills (Crown Hill etc) around that area but with wet roads and all snow on the verges why the traffic jams ?? Took me 1 hour to get the kids to Sweyne School and back to Leigh!

 

And by the way the same Meto (Ian F Tweets) said that by the 30-31st Jan we would be in a westerly mild regime if you want to look back onto the Model Discussion Thread and cherry pick some posts so I would not put much faith in what may happen in weeks 2,3 and 4 of February. They simply look at the latest data and respond accordingly, does not mean it will be right all the time. This Cold spell breaking was then pushed back to the 4th February a few days ago, now pushed back to the 7th/8th, so lets see how this plays out, also still a chance of a weak N Easterly feeding some snow showers in Tuesday/Wednesday as well. Things WILL Crop up at short notice as we all know with snow set-ups


Rather downbeat this morning.  Woke up to rain instead of snow and with Ian F's latest comments suggesting a return to milder zonal weather towards mid February, this could well be another winter without seeing any meaningful snow.

 

Your talking T360 with Mid February, Fantasy Island!

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6c over the weekend and beginning of next week. Just not cold enough for meaningful snow.

Let's see if the temp makes it that high, can't see it today unless the cloud moves away

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So tomorrow and Saturday look rather messy, quite a bit of cloud at times with occlusions pushing southwards in the complex cyclonic system.

Euro 4 shows a mix of rain, sleet and snow moving south on Saturday

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This is in conjunction with further cyclonic features pushing down the north sea

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One Saturday night too

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Euro 4 again show precipitation, as a wintry mix

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Sunday onwards see a northerly develop which will mean snow showers for Norfolk and parts of eastern Suffolk and Kent (most likely). That said there are still possibilities for troughs to develop which could aid shower enhancement.

 

Latest GFS coming out now, again winds veering towards he east or north east from the middle of next week.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Didn't get anything from the low but did get a good spell between 4-5pm yesterday which caused a mass panic as it settled immediately and started accumulating very fast. Typical, It never snows when I have a day off (today) anyway back to work on Saturday through to Wednesday so bound to see more of the white stuff :D

 

Had a blast watching the radar yesterday evening and following the forums and would like to thank the regulars for their input. I have not had this much fun for a while.

 

So far we have had 1-2 cm but is thawing and most has now gone.

 

Bring on the next event 

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had just shy of an inch overnight - which is the biggest accumulation since March 2013 here, when we had 8" in the garden and 4-5" on all other surfaces.

 

I've seen snow fall on 5 separate days now this winter which, at least before Feb 2009 would have been very unusual. Having said that, we barely had a winter here without 2+" of snow so it would still be odd if this was the best of the season.

 

Plenty of time for things to show up on Sunday for example - parts of Derbyshire (a lot higher than here) got 1ft last night and no one predicted that. Indeed, we had an hour of moderate snow yesterday evening which no one even predicted at T+1 so lots can change v quickly...

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fyi the 06Z builds on the 00z and develops a Kent streamer in the latter stages of high res, in a decent easterly. Not sure the uppers are quite low enough to send them too inland ala Feb '09 for us in East Anglia, but it certainly looks good for the Folkestone contingent - from this range anyway

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I think people are missing the first part of Ian F's post..

"Yes. However, despite currently strong EC and MOGREPS signals for cold to relent by end of next week, this still has to be accepted with due caution, with further trough disruption(s) to E still possible to complicate matters and prolong cold weather."

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I think people are missing the first part of Ian F's post..

"Yes. However, despite currently strong EC and MOGREPS signals for cold to relent by end of next week, this still has to be accepted with due caution, with further trough disruption(s) to E still possible to complicate matters and prolong cold weather."

 

No, did see it but me being a pessimist is expecting the worst case scenario!!  Also, my main disappointment was regarding the February outlook.  Yes I know it's FI and could well change but the Met on the whole have been pretty accurate so far this Winter.  Obviously that's not to say they will be correct this time though.

Edited by Don
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It's difficult to see where the next snow risk lies currently for our region. The air looks on the wrong side of marginal when there is some precipitation around up to Sunday and the it looks drier unless we can get an easterly feed that was hinted at later in the output. North facing coasts are likely to fare OK with wintry showers, but it will be a case of waiting to see if something pops up in the northerly air flow - we should never rule that out.

That has been the story of this dreadful cold spell so far, last night being an extreme example – when we finally hit the jackpot with the ppn it comes with a mild sector and buckets it down. We have been so close yet so far away from a meaningful fall and there is little to cheer in the models for the coming days. 

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COAB! We're on day 1 of what is potentially a week-long cold snap and we're not even into what is traditionally the snowiest month of the year. Let's get some perspective please? Really bad winters are very rare in this country, cold snaps are more usual and that is what we're getting. If you want snowdrifts, white-outs, 14 ice days on the bounce, lake-effect blizzards and the guarantee of snow every winter can I respectfully suggest you try living somewhere other than "Southeast England and East Anglia".

 

 

I dread to think how some of you will cope when a real life crisis hits you.

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No, did see it but me being a pessimist is expecting the worst case scenario!!  Also, my main disappointment was regarding the February outlook.  Yes I know it's FI and could well change but the Met on the whole have been pretty accurate so far this Winter.  Obviously that's not to say they will be correct this time though.

I agree 100% with your comment about the Met being pretty accurate. Sometimes the models have been showing something very wintery in say a weeks time yet the Met have gone against this and predicted something very different and most of the time they have been spot on and then a few days later the models have changed to show what the Met was predicting.

Still lets wait and see, you never know..

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Nice early be aware for Tuesday from METO, at the moment for Northern most parts of this region, but with scope for some change.

 

As some had already alluded to, Tuesday clearly something to keep an eye on.

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