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Some may not call it a PL but the MO think so therefore it is!

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Currently over IOM... Big gusts associated with it along with heavy snow in the North West.

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I think those going round in circles dissecting forecasts from different forecasters (or the same ones at different times) are just going to tie themselves in knots here. You're in the SE of England,

yeah she just text me the same-

Just had a peak at the 18z UKMO (meso) and it shows the centre of the small low moving SE across the Midlands around 3am then across SE England around 6am, sleet/snow showers swirling around this low

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Paul- I rewound the snow shower that hit here an hour ago to see where it came from ( track wise ) & it was south of Derby down the M1, the current strung out snow streamer on the eastern edge of the polar low is aligned to Essex ATM -

 

S

 

SM I don't know if you'll get a chance to see this but looking at the GEFS 18Z I might owe you a big apology from the MOD thread. Slightly off topic but given we share the interest in tonight's events for our region, I hope the mods will permit this to stay. Nothing certain of course but very JMA like if I may say so :oops:

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Yeah saw that, Good news for someone.

Thing I'm thinking is as the low false south in theory where ever that ppn is will under go a temporary stall at the low spins southwards.. May be talking out my ass as per..

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Some may not call it a PL but the MO think so therefore it is!

 

Sorry, but they (the M O) have changed their mind and decided it isnt a PL after all, to quote a message "JF said that the 1821 MO guidance only called it a small scale low, dropping "polar low" 

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Paul- I rewound the snow shower that hit here an hour ago to see where it came from ( track wise ) & it was south of Derby down the M1, the current strung out snow streamer on the eastern edge of the polar low is aligned to Essex ATM -

 

S

 

Just did the same when you mentioned that and yep it came with love from Derby!

 

The Band up between Sheffield and Nottingham is really pushing eastwards so I think Peterborough still in the game, the trough on Nick's Surface analysis will be a great helper in keeping the bands of showers going on their south-eastwards journey, I still stand by my IOW Passing of the Low centre which makes no difference to the shower bands as they are clearly well east of the LP Anyways.

 

Have a feeling what came through between 8-10pm tonight was the Old trough which was over the East Midlands around 5pm which sunk SE Wards and pepped up those showers earlier as well. It helps massively if you have the trigger mechanism to keep the instability alive, the times when I have sat under 9,000jkg of Cape in the States with no trigger and got sunburnt are not nice!

 

Looking good though Campers and the Hardcore who are staying up.........You Nutters!

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Thing I'm thinking is as the low false south in theory where ever that ppn is will under go a temporary stall at the low spins southwards.. May be talking out my ass as per..

Nope you could be right.

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Sorry, but they (the M O) have changed their mind and decided it isnt a PL after all, to quote a message "Jo Farrow said that the 1821 MO guidance only called it a small scale low, dropping polar low" 

It could still give some nice snow fall for some right? ... so that's still pretty good?

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Any chance of any fronts, bands of showers or disturbances running down the north sea into our region and likely to fall as snow in the next few days? We had 1 good shower today and that's it, feeling slightly let down. I want some decent frontal snowfall rather than hit and miss showers

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We are on a high, this is why we keep coming back for more despite needing prozac and therapy most of the year haha.

 

Yep, definitely nights like tonight is the reasoning behind some of our insanity..

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