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Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat


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I think those going round in circles dissecting forecasts from different forecasters (or the same ones at different times) are just going to tie themselves in knots here. You're in the SE of England,

yeah she just text me the same-

Just had a peak at the 18z UKMO (meso) and it shows the centre of the small low moving SE across the Midlands around 3am then across SE England around 6am, sleet/snow showers swirling around this low

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Living in Thanet at least i dont have the stress and strain of 'will it snow' I can just sit back and lurk and watch it fall elsewhere.

At least i've got the memories of the late 70's and early 80's.

Please don't take this as a moan!

yes and even on the southeast weather this evening it showed the snow missing us tonight and cutting across canterbury towards dover, such is life perhaps we will get something next week :)

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Reason that line of showers is there is because there is a convergence zone set up... I suspect it to move south with the low... and further east

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Right time to take a bit of a punt on this then.

 

If we look at the latest radar imagery it is actually providing a very helpful boundary:

 
post-1038-0-91287100-1422566081_thumb.pn
 
We can see that Northern-most line of precip stretching all the way down from NW England in to Cambridgeshire. This happens to be the Northern flank of the NMM projection for the overnight period, and indeed that would be in line with my thinking too (approximately).
 
Remember you want to be as close to the Northern flank of this as possible. If we remember back to the last two marginal snow events (Boxing Day and mid-Jan) the MetO hi-res models actually had things a little too far South. GFS (and consequently NMM) went with a slightly more northerly track and that was indeed the result.
 
History does now always repeat itself where NWP is concerned, but with a similar stand-off this evening we could see a similar outcome.
 
In the meantime - snow showers incoming for the home counties!
 
SK
Edited by snowking
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