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Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat


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I think those going round in circles dissecting forecasts from different forecasters (or the same ones at different times) are just going to tie themselves in knots here. You're in the SE of England,

yeah she just text me the same-

Just had a peak at the 18z UKMO (meso) and it shows the centre of the small low moving SE across the Midlands around 3am then across SE England around 6am, sleet/snow showers swirling around this low

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Just created a chart myself, very similar thinking it seems

 

attachicon.gifUK-Snow-Risk-Map.jpg

 

Accumulations likely to be limited to more higher ground, lower levels possibly more of a wintry mix? especially to the West

We finally agree on something! :wink: I see there to be quite some meaningful accumulations, no bother going into the details yet. MO are totally off one one no way is it projected to be that far west, as per usual using old data. Throwoff the situation is live and evolving all the time... this is within touching distance.

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I'm in Ashurst near Steyning so not far away. Had a short burst that left a tiny amount on the grass and bins, but when I left work (Gatwick) there was about 1cm settled everywhere. Damn that coastal effect!

Just goes to show what a few miles can do when waiting for snow  :D

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Beeb really playing down the snow chance.

Yeah Tomasz Schafernacker on the local weather just said at best it will only be 1 cm, "so for all you people that like snow out there, don't get too excited". Sums it up really.  Then rain showers tomorrow followed by primarily rain showers Saturday (with the odd flake of snow) and dry Sunday. Temps throughout 5-6c. What a fantastic cold spell

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And yet the BBC regional forecast said the chance of heavy snowfall around 3-4am tomorrow morning..

I can agree with that, I believe it is to turn up in intensity once it reaches these parts, so it goes in strong dilutes a little and then restrengthen again, the Thames Estuary might be useful, in getting some moisture in.

Edited by Daniel*
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I'm in Ashurst near Steyning so not far away. Had a short burst that left a tiny amount on the grass and bins, but when I left work (Gatwick) there was about 1cm settled everywhere. Damn that coastal effect!

I've been in Washington this evening so just a stones throw away and the chunk of precipitation missed us to the east by a whisker. :)

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I can agree with that, I believe it is to turn up in intensity once it reaches these parts, so it goes in strong dilutes a little and then restrengthen again, the Thames Estuary might be useful, in getting some moisture in.

 

Me too, seems a fairly good estimate - The showers across the Midlands seem to be holding together quite well, maybe another smattering of snow showers reaching the region before turning dry.

The drier air behind should let temperatures plummet, better chance of snow early morning then

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I can agree with that, I believe it is to turn up in intensity once it reaches these parts, so it goes in strong dilutes a little and then restrengthen again, the Thames Estuary might be useful, in getting some moisture in.

 

 

Majority expect it to lose intensity as it hits the midlands

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Me too, seems a fairly good estimate - The showers across the Midlands seem to be holding together quite well, maybe another smattering of snow showers reaching the region before turning dry.

The drier air behind should let temperatures plummet, better chance of snow early morning then

breaking up now :(

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The first batch of showers headed se through the midlands are losing their structure and will probably be nondescript when they reach the region (more so further east). . Not so sure about the set following on. Will know within 30 mins if they too are going to disappoint.

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Good evening :)

Firstly, the Met Office are calling it a 'polar low type feature' on latest guidance statement. The 12Z ECM run is most favoured track with the exit point close to Brighton at 975mb (06Z) on Friday.

The expectation is the heaviest of the precip (mostly snow) will be on the Northern edge... so Kent, Surrey and the Southern parts of East Anglia. There is a error margin of around 50-70 miles and amounts of snowfall are progged to be 1-2CM.

Current weather warnings issued at 1043Z are sufficient for the time being, with a reassessment around 9.30pm tonight when the new models runs and guidance are available.

A nowcasting event for sure and a late night if you are wanting to see this one through :yahoo:

Whats your gut feeling for us in Essex (South) Tom?

I'm thinking perhaps a light covering between 3-5am?

Edited by Shrimper
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Good evening :)

 

Firstly, the Met Office are calling it a 'polar low type feature' on latest guidance statement. The 12Z ECM run is most favoured track with the exit point close to Brighton at 975mb (06Z) on Friday.

 

The expectation is the heaviest of the precip (mostly snow) will be on the Northern edge... so Kent, Surrey and the Southern parts of East Anglia. There is a error margin of around 50-70 miles and amounts of snowfall are progged to be 1-2CM.

 

Current weather warnings issued at 1043Z are sufficient for the time being, with a reassessment around 9.30pm tonight when the new models runs and guidance are available.

 

A nowcasting event for sure and a late night if you are wanting to see this one through :yahoo:

 

As if by magic Tom appears! Thanks for the update.

 

It was a good night to have Jim Bacon on Look East - essentially whilst the graphics, based around Euro4 incidentally, showed the precipitation staying out towards Beds/Bucks, he did mention the uncertainty and that it could move across to affect Herts and W Essex too.

 

Shame I have to be up in the morning to head to work but I hope nobody is left too disappointed with the overnight watch

 

SK

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