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Personally I feel this Polar low is going to hit NW England and track towards our region. My current thinking is in a line from my location SE towards London/Essex.

Agreed, just how much ooomph wil it have by the time it gets here? The Cheshire Gap is looking very handy right now though!

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I think those going round in circles dissecting forecasts from different forecasters (or the same ones at different times) are just going to tie themselves in knots here. You're in the SE of England,

yeah she just text me the same-

Just had a peak at the 18z UKMO (meso) and it shows the centre of the small low moving SE across the Midlands around 3am then across SE England around 6am, sleet/snow showers swirling around this low

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Personally I feel this Polar low is going to hit NW England and track towards our region. My current thinking is in a line from my location SE towards London/Essex.

Hmm I agree with you might need to make some changes I say it'll be 50-75 miles further west compared to my crappy graphic I see it to hit London bang on potentially. Departing towards Rye.

Edited by Daniel*
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Snow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

The drought is over.  There is proper snow.  The kids have seen proper snow.  It's snowing. 

 

I was so busy looking at my screen I didn't even notice until the wife called the kids to see the snow out the window - would you 'kin believe it, it was snowing!

 

Saturday to-do list... put lamp outside office window.

 

And, did I mention that there is snow?   Real snow.  By the way, it's snowing (and melting).

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There's another batch of showers coming out of the Liverpool area. Looks like they're heading for London area in about 3hrs or so. But will they be snow, if they don't evaporate on the way?

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GFS takes it across North Wales across to SE where's METO takes it through Wales out through IoW etc.

I am not Vicent van Gogh but this is how I see it - caveats apply!

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

It might exit towards the London area, me thinks.

Edit: this is for 'FUN' really do not take seriously - just shows general track

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It's nowcasting that makes this fun , before people knock the BBC /MET these types of situations are impossible to forecast , computer models will give you the general pattern but in unstable situations little micro features will pop up and can give a surprise covering , although they should use s bit more nowcasting or pop in here for latest reports

Edited by southbank
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Hum..........

 

My latest radar update on home & dry has the band of PPN over Birmingham intensifying a little- tracking SE

 

S

Why might that be though.. I kinda thought the showers would fade away as they cross over land and certainly during darkness when convection is less..

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Hum..........

 

My latest radar update on home & dry has the band of PPN over Birmingham intensifying a little- tracking SE

 Ditto on weatherpro , moving out of Manchester along Cheshire gap sinking SE , may reach our part of the world ?

S

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Can't believe that's nearly 6 years to the day , was clued to this forum most of the night , place was buzzing with various reports around the region from S Murr Boooms to your tiny snow balls . I was luck I max out had the biggest snowfall ever , 10 inches , but if I recall the tables turned a bit in jan 13 when that snow fall occuled in your region dumping a decent amount

Sadly feels since 2010 we are slipping back in 90's type winters

 

Lol Jan 13 was a good event, even made an Igloo!

 

post-24-0-26795200-1422555443_thumb.jpg

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Why might that be though.. I kinda thought the showers would fade away as they cross over land and certainly during darkness when convection is less..

 

Polar lows have a tendancy to die out over the NW then reinvigorate...

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ECM thus far on 850s

 

72 -   -5c

96 -   -6/-7c

120   -7/-8c

 

Flow direct Northerly-  VERY cold over the end of the weekend into the start of the week with snow about....

 

S

Edited by Steve Murr
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Sm snow sausage heading SE or could be deemed as a complete ck up...time will tell😀😀😀

Hopefully its hard to call... I tried to let no bias interfere I see the gradient to be a little sharper too. :rolleyes:

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I agree that the track looks favourable. More in line with the GFS/ECM track than the UKMO.

Question is, will landfall/Welsh hills etc kill it. Or as SM says, will it suddenly pep up.

My hunch is those further North in our region, rather than further South West will do better in the early hours. We shall see...

Edited by Shrimper
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