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I think those going round in circles dissecting forecasts from different forecasters (or the same ones at different times) are just going to tie themselves in knots here. You're in the SE of England,

yeah she just text me the same-

Just had a peak at the 18z UKMO (meso) and it shows the centre of the small low moving SE across the Midlands around 3am then across SE England around 6am, sleet/snow showers swirling around this low

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Theres no simple answer Snowball!

 

I would say yes, but it's like shooting a rifle at a moving target, it could land anywhere. Like Daniel said a few posts back we are probably 2 miles apart, if that and I just had snow, he had nothing.

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Hi Steve. 

 

How do you see that UKMO Day 6 chart going forward? i.e - longevity of cold?

 

Also worth noting that this afternoon's GEFS seem to be sniffing out a possible Easterly later next week. Your thoughts?

 

Cheers.

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Theres no simple answer Snowball!

 

I would say yes, but it's like shooting a rifle at a moving target, it could land anywhere. Like Daniel said a few posts back we are probably 2 miles apart, if that and I just had snow, he had nothing.

Ahhh ok lol fingers crossed for us all :0) thanks for your reply
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But even if it does, Alex Deakin reiterated a few minutes ago that by the stage it reaches the South East, the snow will be confined to the hills. So maybe the less cold air (which is forecast for Friday) will already be in place?

To be fair they werent keen on some settling snow in some places this afternoon...

Very uncertain. Its going to be a nowcast again.

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Tis very Interesting that areas that are along the Estuary have not really had anything due to marginality issues, North Kent, South Essex etc etc whereas head a bit further North or South and Snow seems to have stuck quite readily, these things always interest me much like the 2009 Polystyrene Ball Snow Incident on the 2nd February when Surrey got foot of snow and other areas never even had anything settle!

Oh god don't Paul.

The day where we should of got clobbered 80's style.

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It does appear to me on a more South-Easterly track rather than South through Ireland/Wales..

Agreed the track at the moment is good - I actually see it to narrowly miss South West. :oops:
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Oh god don't Paul.

The day where we should of got clobbered 80's style.

 

I was living in Caterham and it was awesome!!!   (except my wife was 9 months pregnant and they closed our road!!!)

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The problem with Polar Lows is they have a habit of decaying rapidly as soon as they hit land. Without a warm water source they just die.

Best I think we can hope for is some shower trains out of it funneling through the Cheshire Gap/Wales.

Edited by Shrimper
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just got in having done "the triangle" Beccles/Yarmouth/Lowestoft for work, snow was quite heavy everywhere and sticking on fields earlier, roads were just wet, haven't looked out since i started cooking dinner though.

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Oh god don't Paul.

The day where we should of got clobbered 80's style.

I remember getting a Taxi and he was talking about it saying we could easily get a foot.

 

Woke up to a thaw and sleet.

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I installed my weather station in Sept 2013 and this afternoon I've recorded the lowest air pressure yet - 977.3mb! It didn't even get that low during the storms we had last winter...

Interesting as that is the same for me, from midnight the pressure has dropped like a stone , bottomed out at 974 - rain here but the temperature is now dipping away fast at +1 with DP+0.7

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Oh I see how it is shower.

 

Cross over me and you break up and become light.

 

but cross kent you reform and become heavier.

 

I see

Edited by SN0WM4N
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Been in a meeting all afternoon at work with floor to ceiling windows. About 2pm it came over SO dark and started snowing quite heavily. Only for about 5 mins or so but was lovely to see my first snowfall of this winter. I work in Slough :)

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I am not Vicent van Gogh but this is how I see it - caveats apply!

post-19153-0-29179400-1422554243_thumb.j

It might exit towards the London area, me thinks.

Edit: this is for 'FUN' really do not take seriously - just shows general track

Edited by Daniel*
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Oh god don't Paul.

The day where we should of got clobbered 80's style.

 

Yh but we made up for it the next winter with 34cm of level snow from nearly the same set-up, swings and roundabouts it seems, that Inversion that screwed us in 2009 after all those snowless winters was hard to swallow though, but just goes to show just how much has to fall into place for the magical white stuff!

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Tis very Interesting that areas that are along the Estuary have not really had anything due to marginality issues, North Kent, South Essex etc etc whereas head a bit further North or South and Snow seems to have stuck

quite readily, these things always interest me much like the 2009 Polystyrene Ball Snow Incident on the 2nd February when Surrey got foot of snow and other areas never even had anything settle!

Can't believe that's nearly 6 years to the day , was clued to this forum most of the night , place was buzzing with various reports around the region from S Murr Boooms to your tiny snow balls . I was luck I max out had the biggest snowfall ever , 10 inches , but if I recall the tables turned a bit in jan 13 when that snow fall occuled in your region dumping a decent amount

Sadly feels since 2010 we are slipping back in 90's type winters

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Personally I feel this Polar low is going to hit NW England and track towards our region. My current thinking is in a line from my location SE towards London/Essex.

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