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Posted
  • Location: Tornado Alley, west London
  • Location: Tornado Alley, west London

    I'd take anything from the MOD thread with a heavy pinch of salt. The majority of posters in there  do tend to wishcast on the basis of one particular model run, rather than look at them all in balance bearing in mind the different strong and weak points of each.

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    I think those going round in circles dissecting forecasts from different forecasters (or the same ones at different times) are just going to tie themselves in knots here. You're in the SE of England,

    yeah she just text me the same-

    Just had a peak at the 18z UKMO (meso) and it shows the centre of the small low moving SE across the Midlands around 3am then across SE England around 6am, sleet/snow showers swirling around this low

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    I'd take anything from the MOD thread with a heavy pinch of salt. The majority of posters in there  do tend to wishcast on the basis of one particular model run, rather than look at them all in balance bearing in mind the different strong and weak points of each.

    The difference is that the metoffice forecasts also look wintry from the end of this week.

     

     

    UK Outlook for Thursday 29 Jan 2015 to Saturday 7 Feb 2015:

    Much of the UK is likely to be in a cold, showery airstream at first, with sleet and snow showers across northwestern parts of the UK. Gales are likely across northern Britain too. These colder conditions are expected to last through Friday and into the weekend, with further spells of snow and overnight frost and ice, especially across the north of the UK. These conditions may well last into the first week of February, but there are some signs of more changeable weather by the end of the forecast period. Although any stormy weather currently looks unlikely by this time, spells of wind of rain would mean that temperatures may return to nearer normal and the likelihood of snow, frost and ice would be a little lower.

    The set up is driven by the movement of the polar vortex to Siberia and aligning in a way which develops a deep Euro trough, this is different to most northerlies we have witnessed over the past few year.

     

    Anyway

    day 4/5 charts out

     

    Wednesday

    post-17424-0-05308000-1422135895_thumb.p

    Fresh north westerly wind

    Rain in the morning will clear, back edge snow looks unlikely to me as the 528 dam line is well behind the cold front. Maybe a few wintry showers will blow in from the north west later. (Looks like a GFS foible again)

    Temperatures - Morning (8-10C, afternoon 4-6C)

     

    Thursday

    post-17424-0-01808300-1422135896_thumb.p

    Fresh to strong north westerly, backing northerly later

    Sunshine and wintry showers being blown into our region in bands (note the troughs), maybe more showers moving into Norfolk later as showers are allowed to move in off the north sea.

    Temperatures - 2-5C

    Edited by Captain shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    I would urge caution on this possibility. I'm not saying it won't happen but we have a massive temperature drop as the front approaches from 9/10c to probably 2/3 in around 6 hours time and before any wintry precipitation we will have quite a bit of light rain, which means 'heavy snow blanketing' isn't likely IMO.

    Also to add, the GFS precipitation charts are notorious for being wrong and overdoing things. If the GFS 12z is right we have 3hours or so of back edge snow, not to be sniffed at and I will be happy to see flakes falling but I doubt it would amount to anything in all honesty

    Not sure I should have said blanketed! the graphics gave me a illusion :D

    Anyway it is known when ground is wet under moderate/heavy falls snow can actually settle

    Seen it a few times at least it is good we have potential not out in in oblivion

    Edit: Fax is not in agreement it can change, the GFS 18z has a period of heavy snowfall not the most sought after model when it comes to snow - EURO4 will be interesting come monday evening.

    Edited by Daniel*
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    Posted
  • Location: Fakenham
  • Weather Preferences: Copious amounts of snow and ice days
  • Location: Fakenham

    Could someone tell me the maximum dew point that you would expect to see snow? I know there are many other factors to consider. Thank you

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Could someone tell me the maximum dew point that you would expect to see snow? I know there are many other factors to consider. Thank you

    Ideally 0C and below above 1C and there is virtually no chance unless you live up a mountain.

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    Posted
  • Location: Fakenham
  • Weather Preferences: Copious amounts of snow and ice days
  • Location: Fakenham

    Very interesting BBC forecast, even mentioning February! If the northerlies verify I'm just glad they are not coinciding with the large tides we have just had on the north Norfolk coast. Could have been worse than Dec 2013

    Ideally 0C and below above 1C and there is virtually no chance unless you live up a mountain.

    Thanks for the help

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    Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Not a fan of heatstroke.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.

    Very interesting BBC forecast, even mentioning February! If the northerlies verify I'm just glad they are not coinciding with the large tides we have just had on the north Norfolk coast. Could have been worse than Dec 2013

    Thanks for the help

    Indeed, though I'd imagine that, if you got flooded at Stanhoe, there would be several expensive second homes between you and the coast that would be in trouble.

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    Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

    Middle of next week is looking wet and windy, with what looks like some colder nights/cooler days to follow after that.

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    Posted
  • Location: Fakenham
  • Weather Preferences: Copious amounts of snow and ice days
  • Location: Fakenham

    Indeed, though I'd imagine that, if you got flooded at Stanhoe, there would be several expensive second homes between you and the coast that would be in trouble.

    Don't get me started on 2nd homes, that's the reason I now live in fakenham! Priced out of the village I have spent my whole life in by people who spend 1 weekend up here every 2 or 3 months. The coast reminds me of ghost towns this time of year

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Partly cloudy start to the day here with an air frost. 

    Later half of next week looks uncertain, due to the positioning of the polar vortex, hence there are complex solutions which are cropping up which may make delivering a cold northerly more difficult. The ECM/UKMO still offer the best output even early on so that is a plus.

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    Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄

    UK FORECAST

    LAST UPDATED 08:48, SUNDAY 25 JAN

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/

    (Older forcast updated saturday.)

    Nina Ridge takes us through the weather details for the days ahead.

    BBC weather forecast for today and through to start of Feb now online... â„â„â„â„â„â„

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/30965802

    Edited by Siberian Xpress
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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    morning all things might get a bit interesting  on Wednesday  if the models are right might have to go to bq to get a bag of grit!!

    post-4629-0-64058100-1422174023_thumb.pn

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

    UPDATED Nina Ridge takes us through the weather details for the days ahead.

    BBC weather forecast for today and through to start of Feb now online... â„â„â„â„â„â„

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/30965802

    Just watched that forecast. BBC predicting 9C on Thursday! Good luck with that forecast because evidence suggests it will be 3C!

     

    Rarely watch BBC forecasts these days because they are crap in my opinion.

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    Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

    Just watched that forecast. BBC predicting 9C on Thursday! Good luck with that forecast because evidence suggests it will be 3C!

     

    Rarely watch BBC forecasts these days because they are crap in my opinion.

    That forecast is a day old (24 January 2015 Last updated at 12:46 ) just checked MO and BBC online and both showing temps of 3-5oC now for Thurday.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Just watched that forecast. BBC predicting 9C on Thursday! Good luck with that forecast because evidence suggests it will be 3C!

     

    Rarely watch BBC forecasts these days because they are crap in my opinion.

    It seemed to be old data they were suing as it looked like the cold front was still straddling southern England on Thursday, hence the milder temperatures. Not anything like the FAX chart for Thursday which had us in a cold north westerly (hence the 2-5C prediction I gave on the chart analysis last night, which is now reflected in the BBC forecasts for that day).

    Anyway moving on, I just want the cleaner northerly evolution to verify and not the mickey mouse mess of the GFS. I have no time for these evolutions messing around.

    Edited by Captain shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    Looks like all rain as the cold front moves east for the SE on Wednesday. Very mild temps take their time to disperse:

     

    post-14819-0-94576700-1422180505_thumb.g post-14819-0-40155700-1422180506_thumb.g

     

    No surprise there really as it was always marginal.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Looks like all rain as the cold front moves east for the SE on Wednesday. Very mild temps take their time to disperse:

     

    attachicon.gif78-779UK.gif attachicon.gif78-778UK.gif

     

    No surprise there really as it was always marginal.

    This is before the cold front has worked through and temps drop markedly coinciding with PPN. GFS still shows back edge snow for SE England and something more substantial in the morning.

    post-19153-0-29103400-1422181307_thumb.jpost-19153-0-03928200-1422181332_thumb.j

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Personally I wouldn't rule out some snow showers Wednesday night into Thursday. Deeply unstable airmass, cold 850s, low dewpoints. So if any showers can form into band then some areas might get a dusting. Warnings now out for north western areas, so a case now of seeing whether in disturbances occur which could produce a line of showers or a prolonged spell of snow during that time.

    GFS continues to look a mess in the 5-8 day range.

    I think this might be a two stage process with another system working in during the weekend with the killer amplification occurring after this low slides through the UK.

    Edited by Captain shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    The low at T156 also warms out the uppers and again marginal goes the wrong way:  post-14819-0-29888800-1422182207_thumb.g

     

    So although many are saying once the cold digs in on late Wednesday it will be all snow, that looks over optimistic as the models get into their higher res they spot the warm sectors and occlusions.

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    This is before the cold front has worked through and temps drop markedly coinciding with PPN. GFS still shows back edge snow for SE England and something more substantial in the morning.

    attachicon.gifimage.jpgattachicon.gifimage.jpg

     

    Yes that is the second cold front, following the occluded front. A small window where the 0c isotherm covers the south for a few hours. I would have thought that this may verify:

     

    post-14819-0-13868200-1422182520_thumb.g

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    Posted
  • Location: Ashford Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter. Storms in Summer
  • Location: Ashford Kent

    Would rather have mild stormy weather with flooding than this borefest tbh. Either snow or warm up please

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Yes that is the second cold front, following the occluded front. A small window where the 0c isotherm covers the south for a few hours. I would have thought that this may verify:

     

    attachicon.gif96-526UK.gif

    Ian F is worth paying attention: W COUNTRY Summary of latest f'cast thoughts: WEDS PM-FRI AM: Cold, windy. Through this period, any snow falling to all levels away frm coast

    MOGREPS might be showing something more potent...

    LOl this is not the MOD thread :p

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    Ian F is worth paying attention: W COUNTRY Summary of latest f'cast thoughts: WEDS PM-FRI AM: Cold, windy. Through this period, any snow falling to all levels away frm coast

    MOGREPS might be showing something more potent...

    LOl this is not the MOD thread :p

     

    No surprise as they ignore the GFS.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire

    Crikey I know we all love our weather and this is not a criticism merely an observation but some of you don't ever seem to take a break from it. I mean literally multiple posts across multiple threads every hour from some. It must make you stir crazy.

    Same summary from me as a few days ago and this without the stress of over analysing everything to empth degree and flooding the forum with my thoughts, colder after Wednesday then possibly significantly colder next weekend, with snow always an increasing risk.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Not a fan of heatstroke.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.

    Don't get me started on 2nd homes, that's the reason I now live in fakenham! Priced out of the village I have spent my whole life in by people who spend 1 weekend up here every 2 or 3 months. The coast reminds me of ghost towns this time of year

     

    Absolutely.  If wealthy Chelsea types want to holiday in North Norfolk, they're welcome, but they should stay in a hotel or posh self-catering, NOT a second home, IMO.

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