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Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat


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I think those going round in circles dissecting forecasts from different forecasters (or the same ones at different times) are just going to tie themselves in knots here. You're in the SE of England,

yeah she just text me the same-

Just had a peak at the 18z UKMO (meso) and it shows the centre of the small low moving SE across the Midlands around 3am then across SE England around 6am, sleet/snow showers swirling around this low

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Agreed - Throw the models out for tonight. The low to the NW is definitely more developed than most models expected, many modelling it as a open wave disturbance. It's now a confirmed Polar Low.

 

The tracking? Who knows, as said above likely SSE but whether our region will manage to get the snow is a completely different story altogether. Based on previous events i'd say the risk is quite low. 

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Don't forget the thunder and lightning!

 

Just goes to show how much unstable air masses in a westerly breeze can offer. 

 

We might not be getting white out snow in Medway and that still upsets me a bit but I can't remember having this much fun radar/lamppost/model/forecast watching for a long time. 

 

I could wake up to 2 inches of snow as easily as nothing at all just on the basis of the tiniest shifts in the air mass.

 

It's brilliant!

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Agreed - Throw the models out for tonight. The low to the NW is definitely more developed than most models expected, many modelling it as a open wave disturbance. It's now a confirmed Polar Low.

 

The tracking? Who knows, as said above likely SSE but whether our region will manage to get the snow is a completely different story altogether. Based on previous events i'd say the risk is quite low.

With any luck as it tracks down through the Irish Sea into Wales it will get a good shove ESE. Worst case it should spawn some shower trains as it passes.

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Wow, that was incredible in Guildford just now. Heavy hail shower turning the ground white turning to heavy snow and now steady snow continuing. Everything white over/

 

Just goes to show how marginal this is, a couple miles south its a damp squib with a few flakes so far. Evaporative cooling in the heavier showers seems to be the difference at the moment.

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Usually with every single model showing that, it's been pushed into france or not happening at all... So I'd rate it at 10%

Knew it!! Same buggers that pinch our thunderstorms as well, but lets hope its our year for a change :aggressive:

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Just goes to show how marginal this is, a couple miles south its a damp squib with a few flakes so far. Evaporative cooling in the heavier showers seems to be the difference at the moment.

Girlfriend in Woking just sent me a pic of about 1-2" of snow and hail even on main roads..

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Agreed - Throw the models out for tonight. The low to the NW is definitely more developed than most models expected, many modelling it as a open wave disturbance. It's now a confirmed Polar Low.

 

The tracking? Who knows, as said above likely SSE but whether our region will manage to get the snow is a completely different story altogether. Based on previous events i'd say the risk is quite low. 

 

Polar lows die out quickly when hitting land. If it's a proper polar low, it'd be a busted flush by the time it tracked here, over land from NW Scotland.

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