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Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat


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Well the met office want accumulated snow to effect the region today and tonight.. Nice little are of very heavy ppn moves down south overnight..

Today:

Staying cold and breezy with sunny spells and scattered sleet and snow showers. The heaviest of the showers are expected during the afternoon, with a risk of hail in places. Turning a little drier towards evening. Maximum Temperature 4C.

Tonight:

Wintry showers to start the night, then drier for a time with clear spells. More frequent showers arriving by the end of the night, with accumulations affecting some areas. Minimum Temperature 1C.

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I think those going round in circles dissecting forecasts from different forecasters (or the same ones at different times) are just going to tie themselves in knots here. You're in the SE of England,

yeah she just text me the same-

Just had a peak at the 18z UKMO (meso) and it shows the centre of the small low moving SE across the Midlands around 3am then across SE England around 6am, sleet/snow showers swirling around this low

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Well according to the bbc weather im due to get some snow this afternoon, then tomorrow as well, so fingers crossed  :)

Edited by Jo S
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Indeed - it wil be rain yet again with those temps

With any precip at intensiity it will fall as snow, looking at the graphics quite some white was making its way to the SE. Some might even get Thundersnow. Edited by Daniel*
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Temperature - 2C, dew point -1C

No different from yesterday evening really. That wind really did hold the temperatures up, even with clear skies.

 

Looks like so far that most of the showers never made it to us. Hopefully this will change.

During the early hours of tomorrow morning, if the models are correct then there will be an area of snow moving south east through the home counties

15013003_2900.gif

 

Shows up on the FAX chart too

post-17424-0-44613000-1422518858_thumb.p

Edited by Captain shortwave
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@Essexweather: Interesting midnight run of the high-res @metoffice model. Many parts of the region could awake to snow on Friday morning.

@KnowMeSee Enough to settle and cause a few issues, not major at this stage. Next Tuesday could be a more significant event.

Perhaps something more widespread in terms of snowfall overnight into Friday.

He is a professional metrologist I believe although has no links to MO, he has access to MOGREPS.

Edited by Daniel*
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This cold spell has promised so much. But looks to be a damp squib after all. Ok, so we've got a chance of some wet snow today and overnight. But then dry, a bit chilly and then next week back to type (ie the Atlantic).

It hasn't really started proper yet and you're already writing it off? We're not back to the Atlantic certainly for early next week either

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Feeling a little anxious about this cold spell. 


BBC are sooooo vague about weather down in this quadrant of the UK.


They show on their graphics, bands of showers fleeting with the SE through this morning and this evening, but their is no such evidence on the current radar.


 


Showers are dying over the Welsh mountains and if any make it too the Midlands, well they are decaying very fast. Thus not making it to the SE and were in for a day of glorious winter sunshine with a marked wind chill, and staying relatively dry apart from the odd flurry of sleet or snow, even rain for that matter!


 


Talking of Rain, tomorrow we will see it more on a more Northerly wind. Well I'd say still a NW'ly, but slacker.


 


Then the BBC show a distinctly bowed Northerly on Saturday to re-introduce a colder feel once again than that of friday that looks in essence 'Weak'. It's Sunday when a 'Blast' of sorts will be keenly felt across the UK.


 


My feelings are that this is a North Cold spell, with very much isolated a showery activity further south, apart from the SW, where I think that LOW that is circling the Jet will effect Ireland and the SW with some quite 'Noteworthy' snow.


 


So all in all, for me, biasly in the SE, I'm yet again annoyed because it's nearly 2 years and counting since I've seen a flake of snow! I'm getting annoyed! 


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I'll repeat what I said on two. The high res WRF precip forecast shows a notable snow event for EA overnight, with some also during the afternoon today. With the Meto text forecast now saying that we'll get some accumulations tonight, they are tentatively acknowledging it's potential. Indeed GFS Op also goes the same way. The question is that surrounding uppers and whether the showers will a) pass this Far East (gefs say yes) and b) whether the 'warmer' uppers are dragged in behind or before the precipitation. If the former than we're quids in for EA and could see a couple of inches, if not then we're likely to see some slushy immeasurable accumulations with rain.

To be clear though, just 24hrs ago on this exact train journey I posted that I was concerned the east had no opportunities for snow - yet now look at my post. Things change quickly and given the marked shift in the output overnight to a much longer term cold spell, people shouldn't really be downbeat!

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@Essexweather: Interesting midnight run of the high-res @metoffice model. Many parts of the region could awake to snow on Friday morning.

@KnowMeSee Enough to settle and cause a few issues, not major at this stage. Next Tuesday could be a more significant event.

Perhaps something more widespread in terms of snowfall overnight into Friday.

He is a professional metrologist I believe although has no links to MO, he has access to MOGREPS.

 

Follow these posts guys.. Not the wannabes trying to show charts they can't read... 

 

You would have thought there is a blow torch SW showing this morning from the mood in here... Far from it  :rofl:  :rofl:  :cold:

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As for today, the Euro 4 shows showers pushing through the region from lunchtime, these lasting until the early evening. As for tonight, yesterday it did look good for East Anglia but the models are chopping and changing with these wave features and as the chart posted earlier shows, it's more a case of the home counties being at risk at this present time, but this could change. This feature will be appearing on the verified surface charts soon so we can track this during the day and hence give a prediction of who might be in the firing line. The FAX charts actually update every 6 hours I believe for the verified T0 charts.

post-17424-0-90880300-1422519961_thumb.p

Tonight's potential snow is currently south of Iceland and will zip towards the UK.

Hopefully many of us will see some snow over the next 24 hours. We just then need to get through the 24 hour window where the conditions look more marginal before the cold air digs back in on Saturday.

 

For the record, early next week continues to look interesting.

Edited by Captain shortwave
The chart posted was the 06z chart
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If it snows,it snows....if it doesn't,it doesn't.

 

I'm off to the Winchester till this all blows over. :p

15012918_2900.gif

 

Hows that for a slice of fried gold?

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Great to see the likes of ITSY, Daniel actually bother to interpret the charts, look at forecasts and can use radar with some logic and inform others. They really add value to the thread.

Thurs night / Friday morning continues of some interest as per posts from several posters yesterday including myself.

Next Tuesday is another date with some possibility. All enjoyable stuff this hunt for snow compared to some winters.

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