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Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat


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I think those going round in circles dissecting forecasts from different forecasters (or the same ones at different times) are just going to tie themselves in knots here. You're in the SE of England,

yeah she just text me the same-

Just had a peak at the 18z UKMO (meso) and it shows the centre of the small low moving SE across the Midlands around 3am then across SE England around 6am, sleet/snow showers swirling around this low

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Yamkin,

Do these quakes in the UK have any ongoing consequences or are they treated as a one off event. I mean would they be linked to other "traumas" at a later date or an event waiting to happen?

 

terryall, UK has many very low magnitude 1.0 and below quakes every year. Magnitude 2.0 + magnitude quakes are common, but not back to back like the present. No one really knows what may be around the corner due to these recent back to back quakes. The main tectonic plates are the main arteries and have veins feeding off them like the UK for example. Earth is a beautiful planet with many changes occurring daily.

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On new years 1994 we had northerly polar low dropped down covering of snow - Boxing Day 1996 same thing forecast was dry Brentwood got 6 inches of snow early 2005/2006 I think two years running almost to the same week! another northerly with polar low cars stuck on M11 started out as rain turned quickly to snow all never in original forcasts during those cold spells so we can and have had snow out of these sets ups

Edited by Rinse The Raindrops
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A little report on the snow front from my trip to South Yorkshire tonight to see the spurs:-)

It was a nightmare getting out of Sheffield after the game diversions galore- though I was in awe at how the wet roads were very quickly covered in a thick blanket of the white stuff as we were trying to get out of thw city- a few cms of snow and the traffic was chaos! It was snowing on and off from as soon as I got to Leicestershire northwards. Chesterfield- Sheffield with the heaviest showers being closest to the highest grounds of the Peak District I expect. It was a mix of "hail snow" and proper flakes- reminded me of the Feb 09 Thames streamer event

Still on the M1 at the time of writing near Luton! Fingers crossed us south easterners get some snow soon we sure have been patient enough!

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Edited by Kentspur
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One last look at the radar before I go to bed and the showers aren't getting anywhere near our region. Perhaps a slightly better chance during the afternoon/evening but I'm not holding my breath

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Details of the earthquake now on BBC news website. Epicenter near Cottesmore, Rutland.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31032930

This is a great link worth bookmarking.... BGS map of earthquakes over the past 50 days in and around the British Isles. There are quite a few, sometimes as many as 20 over the period are recorded.

http://www.earthquakes.bgs.ac.uk/earthquakes/home.html

Bear in mind the Richter Scale is logarithmic. The 3.8 Oakham one would have been felt, but not too destructive. Mainland British earthquakes are caused by the natural settlement of sedimentary layers of rock - they just give- not by two tectonic plates moving past each other as on fault lines

Edited by Iceni
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Thanks for your replies Yamkin and Iceni,

I look at the GDACS web site, http://www.gdacs.org. , on almost a daily basis and I am always amazed at the number of earth quakes there are on a world wide basis. In fact I was looking at the site when the Boxing Day Tsunami occurred and the drama and signicance unfolded.

Back to weather - there seems to be a little disappointment in some regionals north at the amount, or lack, of snow received last night. Seemed plenty in Sheffied last night at the Spurs game.

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Just witnessed a small earthquake here in Peterborough! Another thing to add to the fun!

I am about 7ish miles from Cottesmore, the quake woke me up and this morning a picture hanging in my bathroom is only hanging on on one side.

In bed early as I didn't think the showers were gonna make it this far, in case you're wondering 😊

Edited by MarcB
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Looking good for today. The showers are beginning to gather in Wales and are starting to make progress Eastwards at last. They were a mixture of rain and snow earlier, but now nearly all have turned to snow according to the NW radar.

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Well just watched the weather on Good morning Britain and the weather summery for today for us was

"showers, mainly rain"

Lets hope she's wrong as the BBC weather I watched last night clearly showed snow for us today and said we could get a slight covering.

I don't know what models they use, but ITV weather is always very poor.  The weather lady on there the other day said there would be up to "ten feet" of snow in some parts of the US. Ben and Susannah were astonised and believed it. TEN FEET???

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1.9c on the Argos weather station. The pressure is falling and the shower symbol has now come on. What will it be, rain, sleet , snow or hail or will we have the lot all in one day? :D Not a cloud in the sky at the moment! :cold:

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Bbc weather forecasts are a joke

" bitterly cold @ 7c"

Its a pity as some of the presentation is good.

Maybe they should be more explicit saying something like "although the temperature will be around average, it will feel bitterly cold in the wind". Another bug bear is when they say during the winter  "it will be warmer today". It can only be warmer if it is warm in the first place. "less cold" shouild be the appropriate phrase

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There are going to be people wondering why the SE, in such a cold flow, is going to see some rain, today.

 

Best way of giving a rule of thumb is to consider the theta-e charts. Here's the theta-e charts from lunch time today,

 

post-5986-0-01300400-1422516034_thumb.gipost-5986-0-96355800-1422516041_thumb.gipost-5986-0-28242200-1422516047_thumb.gi

 

Here you can see relatively high theta-e values migrating SE away from the UK. What does this mean? Well, here's a rule of thumb chart - for January only

 

post-5986-0-04988800-1422516131_thumb.pn

 

This gives the probability of snow (vs something else) given a specific theta-e. The SE is between 15degC and 20degC at lunchtime, which, as you can see, really doesn't even edge above a 60% chance even at the lower end.

 

Be wary of those bringing gifts of 850hPa 128dm; and -8degc 850hPa. It's more complicated than that. For sure, that's the trigger to look at other indices, but certainly not the be all and end all of it.

 

Good news is that the theta-e (a variable that combines moisture and temperature) falls as we go through the day.

 

Note: it doesn't preclude snow for some, especially at height, but it makes the chances of it less.

Edited by Sparkicle
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There are going to be people wondering why the SE, in such a cold flow, is going to see some rain, today.

 

Best way of giving a rule of thumb is to consider the theta-e charts. Here's the theta-e charts from lunch time today,

 

attachicon.gifthetea-12z.gifattachicon.gifthetae-15z.gifattachicon.gifthetae-18z.gif

 

Here you can see relatively high theta-e values migrating SE away from the UK. What does this mean? Well, here's a rule of thumb chart - for January only

 

attachicon.gifthetee-snow.png

 

This gives the probability of snow (vs something else) given a specific theta-e. The UK is between 15degC and 20degC at lunchtime, which, as you can see, really doesn't even edge above a 50% chance even at the lower end.

 

Be wary of those bringing gifts of 850hPa 128dm; and -8degc 850hPa. It's more complicated than that.

 

Good news is that the theta-e (a variable that combines moisture and temperature) falls as we go through the day.

 

Note: it doesn't preclude snow for some, especially at height, but it makes the changes of it less.

Thanks Sparkicle,  great info.

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This cold spell has promised so much. But looks to be a damp squib after all. Ok, so we've got a chance of some wet snow today and overnight. But then dry, a bit chilly and then next week back to type (ie the Atlantic).

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