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What are the verification stats on this model & what data is it based on? I wonder how it compares with the EURO4, I use the NetWx model quite frequently and it to me, seems to suggest sleet when it would otherwise be snow 

 

We find it verifies very well, and has handled a lot of recent situations when it comes to snow/rain/wind events strongly. As with any model it's never going to be 100% when it comes to things like localised snow showers - that's where the radar comes into play though! In terms of the green - that's not sleet, it's a rain/snow mix, so green areas can be rain, sleet or wet snow as they're in that borderline area.

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I think those going round in circles dissecting forecasts from different forecasters (or the same ones at different times) are just going to tie themselves in knots here. You're in the SE of England,

yeah she just text me the same-

Just had a peak at the 18z UKMO (meso) and it shows the centre of the small low moving SE across the Midlands around 3am then across SE England around 6am, sleet/snow showers swirling around this low

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We find it verifies very well, and has handled a lot of recent situations when it comes to snow/rain/wind events strongly. As with any model it's never going to be 100% when it comes to things like localised snow showers - that's where the radar comes into play though! In terms of the green - that's not sleet, it's a rain/snow mix, so green areas can be rain, sleet or wet snow as they're in that borderline area.

 

Thanks for the reply! Always assumed green was sleet, makes a lot more sense now. Thanks

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In my view we should look at this as a 3 phase operation.

 

First we get the cold coming in from the West ,  never a good direction for snow for the south east. It tends to run out of steam, we are more on the borderline for snow / rain mix.

 

Perhaps to the North of Kent  / Sussex and to the West we could see some hit and miss showers, from around Mid afternoon.to around 21:00. 

 

Then if you want snow, and laying snow even better, we need temperatures to drop away.

 

There then could be snowy / sleety mix during Friday , thus the lower the temperatures on Thursday , the less chance of it being washed away.

 

Saturday we see phase 2,  the best hope for snow in this region is , again in my view from showers being pushed in from the sea / Thames estuary, I would say that this favours the north east of Kent. This phase could last until late Monday

 

Then we look to Tuesday for a possible frontal snow event , with more widespread snow ,favouring north /central kent sussex .

 

A far better prognosis for snow lovers than the doom and gloom of the last event.

 

So lets see what happens, radar watching may be the key.

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Hi been reading here a while but pretty clueless on all these predictions etc. Came back from Milton Keynes on my commute and spotted the gritters out on the surrounding roads [ around J13 M1 ] 1st time i've ever seen them do it so hopefully they have good reason to.

 

Hope we get a good covering in Huntingdon but, I doubt it

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All that lovely snow showing on uk snow map lucky people ! . Please please let it snow in whitstable my children get so excited at the prospect . If no snow here hope everyone else who wants a bit of the white stuff gets bucket loads.

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Welcome Sparky68 :)

EURO4 12z is out

post-19153-0-18574100-1422471952_thumb.jpost-19153-0-11677300-1422472001_thumb.j

- Pink indicates snow

For parts of London, E Surrey, Kent, Hertfordshire, Essex. Do not take as a gospel.

*By nighttime those further N in the region may get some snowfall*

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Well I'm not expecting anything down here throughout this entire cold spell, it's going to be hell down here, whilst everyone else in the entire universe gets seventeen foot of snow, including the inner core of the sun, we'll probably get seagulls flying out of the sky stealing peoples doughnuts 

im from brighton aswell and am thinking the same, :wallbash:  :wallbash:

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Welcome Sparky68 :)

EURO4 12z is out

attachicon.gifimage.jpgattachicon.gifimage.jpg

- Pink indicates snow

For parts of London, E Surrey, Kent, Hertfordshire, Essex. Do not take as a gospel.

*By nighttime those further N in the region may get some snowfall

 

Thanks Daniel

Edited by Sparky68
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So then tonight

Scattered showers will push through the region tonight, maybe a dusting in places. Again this will be hit and miss.

Temperatures

nmmuk-0-19-0.png?28-18

0-2C, frost unlikely due to the wind. There will be icy patches in places.

 

Tomorrow

post-17424-0-82995600-1422471928_thumb.p

Strong westerly winds

Showers will be driven through the region, these becoming more prevalent through the day. These will mostly fall as snow.

Temperatures

nmmuk-0-26-0.png?28-18

Well its saying 3-5C, I don't think it will get that high, probably 2s and 3s at best. Feeling bitter in the wind.

 

Overnight

post-17424-0-34215800-1422471930_thumb.p

Strong north westerly winds

Again showers will keep going through the night. These again will mostly be of snow. Maybe turning to sleet later from the north.

Falling to 0C at times

 

Friday

post-17424-0-35151100-1422471931_thumb.p

Cyclonic but mainly northerly

Sunshine and showers again. More marginal conditions will produce a mix of rain/sleet or snow.

Temperatures

nmmuk-0-48-0.png?28-18

3-6C

 

Friday night

post-17424-0-88537600-1422471932_thumb.p

Moderate north to north westerly wind

Again the risk of showers, again these could begin to turn back to snow as the colder air starts to dig southwards

Temperatures - 0-2C, frost again

 

Saturday

post-17424-0-62115700-1422471958_thumb.p

Moderate north westerly winds

More disturbances suggesting showers. Again the risk of snowfall in places.

Temperatures - 2-4C

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Hi been reading here a while but pretty clueless on all these predictions etc. Came back from Milton Keynes on my commute and spotted the gritters out on the surrounding roads [ around J13 M1 ] 1st time i've ever seen them do it so hopefully they have good reason to.

Hope we get a good covering in Huntingdon but, I doubt it

Hi Sparky welcome! nice to see someone from Huntington on here!

How's the MK commute (I may be getting a job there myself)

Sorry mods for off topic but can't seem to PM sparky.

Edited by 80sWeather
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Hi Sparky welcome! nice to see someone from Huntington on here!

How's the MK commute (I may be getting a job there myself)

Thanks

 

Been doing it for 7 years so can't be all bad! It's ok now the A421 is dualled. Once they finish the last bit into MK it will be much quicker.

I can do it in 45 minutes

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I think we are going to get a snow event early next week :) fingers crossed

I hope so. The snow shield down here is working to well at the moment lol.

 

Current temp 3.2C  DP -0.1C

Edited by Sandman
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Snow showers seem to be dieing out as they reach Banbury bigger clusters now forming over wales will they make it ?

Well spotted keeping a eye on it, I thought we'd get the precip from west.
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Thundersnow here half an hour ago, set off car alarms lightening was very close, lights went out..... Had snow showers getting heavier this afternoon..... Hills are covered.... If this continues theyll be heading down to se..... Banding in irish sea atm.....

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Thanks

 

Been doing it for 7 years so can't be all bad! It's ok now the A421 is dualled. Once they finish the last bit into MK it will be much quicker.

I can do it in 45 minutes

Good stuff thanks, now bring on the snow.

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Well spotted keeping a eye on it, I thought we'd get the precip from west.

 

Main problem is sinking, instead of rising, air in the S/E (K Index, LI)

 

post-5986-0-67476700-1422475304_thumb.gi

 

Big intense ones might survive.

Edited by Sparkicle
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