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I think those going round in circles dissecting forecasts from different forecasters (or the same ones at different times) are just going to tie themselves in knots here. You're in the SE of England,

yeah she just text me the same-

Just had a peak at the 18z UKMO (meso) and it shows the centre of the small low moving SE across the Midlands around 3am then across SE England around 6am, sleet/snow showers swirling around this low

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Interesting giving that even the meto have not issued a warning even for ice, forecast to be clear tonight I thought till tomorrow afternoon/evening

Perhaps the wind stopping ice?

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Im surprised at some of the posts.

 

Let me put it this way how many times have you seen showers on a mild W. My answer is plenty although obviously more scattered than further W. So my point is why should this be different because its a bitterly cold W,ly!

 

I am not suggesting widespread snow but snow showers are likely to pop up this evening and especially overnight and like I say we have already seen a snow shower this afternoon.

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Won't happen

We need an E/NE for a streamer and the wind is NW/N

I do not expect a Thames Streamer since you require a ENE wind along with other variables, it can happen! anywhere perhaps not technical one, showers aligning into bands of snow, evident by EURO4 & larger snow spells moving S, It is a very cold flow, and unstable one which warrants unpredictability. Edited by Daniel*
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Won't happen

We need an E/NE for a streamer and the wind is NW/N

 

Yep.

 

As low pressure travels down North Sea, it should set up a very unstable meriodional flow with a very long sea-track direct to the SE. Just what we want!

 

post-5986-0-23526800-1422463565_thumb.gipost-5986-0-91191400-1422463569_thumb.gi

 

Only problem is, the flow is rather slack.

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LOL at the "I told you so" posters summing up the upcoming 7 day+ cold spell before its started.

Same old nonsense from same old posters. I can't see the point of sticking around in this forum. Very few posters seem to post with any patience or consideration.

It's all toys out of pram, knee jerk, whining

And of course the "trolls" who either post bizarre snow depth predictions and then post all negative. All very bizarre.

Edited by Hammer
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I do not expect a Thames Streamers, it can happen, showers aligning into bands of snow, evident by EURO4 & larger snow spells moving S, It is a very cold flow, and unstable one which warrants unpredictability.

True post... For instance pull up the radar and look at Wales, a bunch of snow showers popped up this side of the mountains!! The flow is cold,unstable and the slightest kink or temp difference can do wonders

Patience is key, most have waited 2 years for snow I'm sure we can wait a few more days lol! Next week looks brilliant for snow! Even tonight tomorrow look okay for showers!!

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I'm thinking first reasonable chance of a snow shower anywhere (as in it's possible, anywhere, lol) in the far SE is probably from tomorrow lunchtime onwards, convection-wise

 

post-5986-0-20430200-1422463768_thumb.gi

 

And then, synoptically, it gets better for the SE as we go through the weekend into next week.

Edited by Sparkicle
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Yep.

 

As low pressure travels down North Sea, it should set up a very unstable meriodional flow with a very long sea-track direct to the SE. Just what we want!

 

attachicon.gifeurope.gifattachicon.gifuk.gif

 

Only problem is, the flow is rather slack.

Eh? This is a blinding chart didn't even know this was about???? That would pull showers in off the north Sea???

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Yep. It sinks SSE, too.

Granted no a Thames Streamer would not set up and actually as is passed the would go south east north but it's disturbance is this flow!! What we want

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Granted no a Thames Streamer would not set up and actually as is passed the would go south east north but it's disturbance is this flow!! What we want

 

Maybe not quite synoptically 'right' for a Thames Streamer, but these two look suspiciously similar to a recent(ish) Thundersnow event in SE London

 

post-5986-0-11245400-1422464320_thumb.gipost-5986-0-39266300-1422464324_thumb.gi

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Alex Deakin just said on BBC News 24 forecast that even the south could get 2cm from snow showers tomorrow. Judging by the graphics there will be a real rash of snow showers from late morning onwards tomorrow heading southeastwards

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The reason why snow showers are possible from a westerly even here is that the air isn't just cold is really unstable and with strong winds it really drives those showers in-land.

 

With the air so unstable it will also put us at the risk of organised bands of showers spreading south over the weekend when the winds switch to the north. Monday/Tuesday being the highlight of potential next week due to a trough running south and the possibility of a channel low.

 

I'm also optimistic but potential is there for something at long last.

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Problem is, it was originally shown for Sunday.

 

I feel, much like the last two cold spells the models are going to show promise in the medium term but once it moves into the reliable the risks will dwindle.

Actually this event has always been predicted for Monday when the northerly gets established. Sunday has always looked like a typical northerly with snow showers around the coasts, penetrating into more inland areas of Norfolk and possibly Suffolk.

The Monday event  has been mentioned by myself and others over the past day or so as the GFS has been consistently modelling it.

gfs-0-144.png?12

Previous runs

06z

gfs-2015012806-0-138.png?6

00z

gfs-2015012800-0-144.png?0

 

Yesterdays 18z

gfs-2015012718-0-156.png?18

yesterdays 12z

gfs-2015012712-0-150.png?12

 

In all of them you can see the kink in the isobars indicating a disturbances and an associated occluded front. Timing varies depending on how the system develops as it moves south. But has been consistently modelled and it is appearing on other output as well.

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A fantastic forecast from mr Deaken

I'm now starting to get a tad excited weekend looks great for everywhere for snow and even mentioned 2cm locally for the south on by Friday and mentioned even colder and bitter for the weekend

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