Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat

[Downpour]

Again looking like a poor outlook for most of our region. Snow in the favoured spots but very little of note for places where most people live, in and around the Orbital.

[Captain Shortwave]

Good Morning everyone, its 7 c here and drizzle

Is there a place where I can read the rules for posting in this thread  ?

Want to make sure I stay within them.

 

Have a nice day everyone.

Generally the rule on here is to at least try and keep the chat in here weather related, whether it is model discussion or commenting on the weather out and around during our day to day lives. IMBY posts are allowed in here as the thread is of course more guided to a more specific area unlike the model discussion thread.

Given a few posts I have read of yours, all I can say is the set up over the coming days is very much a sunshine and showers type scenario and as such it will be a hit and miss affair, so giving specifics on certain locations will be difficult. That said areas exposed to the northerly winds from late Saturday will be easier to forecast as the onshore winds will drive snow showers into these locations. For inland areas it is a case of looking out for disturbances in the form of showery troughs or distinct kinks in the flow which would suggest the potential for an occluded front to bring a more prolonged spell of snow to a wide area. 

The FAX charts are the best guide. Which can be found here

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=fax;sess=

Updated this morning out to T84 (Saturday lunchtime)

Edited January 28, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[The Beast From The East]

The mood in the model thread is very positive this morning and talk of the cold lasting and possible a channel low which I'm guessing would be good news for us down here.(Hopefully ) â„

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82366-model-output-discussion-23rd-jan-12z-onwards/page-67

[alexisj9]

7.4 light rain.

[mickeyb44]

Thanks CS, i read all of your posts, very informative.

I will be watching my local station to see the huge temp drop today, fascinating stuff.

[Daniel*]

Morning all.

Tired...and so it begins the cold front is pushing south observe red colours

https://www.metcheck.com/UK/airmass.asp

[TEITS]

Nobody posting the Euro4 then?!!!

 

Band of snow pushing SE from ireland on Thursday.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/28/basis00/ukuk/prty/15012912_2800.gif

 

More snow Thursday night/Friday morning.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/28/basis00/ukuk/prty/15013000_2800.gif

[Rinse The Raindrops]

My bbc weather app on phone is dire at the moment for Thurs/Fri one minute snowflake the next rain then snowflake and with only 24 hours to go before colder weather back to rain this morning

[PLANET THANET]

After watching that forecast, I cannot see London, Kent , Surrey etc receiving any snow at all. I know it's potentially subject to change, but at the moment I feel we may be as disappointed as we were last week.

I think you could be correct as looking at the south east weather forecast on the BBC a little while ago (although it is generalised ) for the southeast , there was no snow on the outlook for Thurs/Fri/sat and Sun,

[Captain Shortwave]

Anyway lets do a FAX update then

So today through to Friday morning, this is the first window where showers will fall mostly as snow

Winds are strong throughout, veering more north westerly later.

Plenty of troughs and occluded fronts suggesting again the risk of snow showers anywhere. Euro 4 looks good as TEITS posted above.

Daytime highs - between 2 and 5C and night time lows of 1C to -2C.

 

Friday

A secondary low moves down the east coast with a frontal system, this low contains slightly less cold air and hence any showers will tend to fall as a mix of rain, sleet and snow. Temperatures a little higher at 4-6C.

 

But even by Friday night we will begin to dig the colder air back in

The 528 dam line clears the south coast and a northerly begins to develop (albeit still complex with secondary features working south).

Again those could pep up the shower activity for all whilst the coast areas of East Anglia and Kent will start to see showers pushing in. 

 

These will become more prevalent into Sunday as the wind strengthens.

[Amanzi]

My bbc weather app on phone is dire at the moment for Thurs/Fri one minute snowflake the next rain then snowflake and with only 24 hours to go before colder weather back to rain this morning

I feel your pain lol. I have searched every forecast known to man for my area and they all show rain or dry conditions... nary a snowflake symbol to be seen  

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/map/gcpu1cq7w#?zoom=9&map=SignificantWeather&lon=-0.27&lat=51.34&fcTime=1422392400

[Roy]

I feel your pain lol. I have searched every forecast known to man for my area and they all show rain or dry conditions... nary a snowflake symbol to be seen

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/map/gcpu1cq7w#?zoom=9&map=SignificantWeather&lon=-0.27&lat=51.34&fcTime=1422392400

It might be best to read Captain Shortwave's post above. The forecasts at the moment will not be that accurate as probably haven't taken any of the latest models and fax charts into consideration?

[SMU]

This is beginning to look like a cold spell north of 9 days

However much to be resolved after day 6 -

All the big 3 are cold / very cold past this date but they land it in different ways

I would take the GFS control run

Anyway snow flurry opportunities in the next 60 hours then post that after a small milder blip of 24 hours things crank up for the weekend.....

Expect snow @ short notice

S

[Roy]

It's definitely a watching brief from this evening as the snow showers start to gather from the North and West. Then push SE across England.

[alexisj9]

Also quite windy didn't notice till I took the kids to school, was to busy for tree watching lol. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Nobody posting the Euro4 then?!!!

 

Band of snow pushing SE from ireland on Thursday.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/28/basis00/ukuk/prty/15012912_2800.gif

 

More snow Thursday night/Friday morning.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/28/basis00/ukuk/prty/15013000_2800.gif

 

Had my eye on it too! Looks good!!! WR picking it up well..

 

Thursday daytime they are some MEATY showers!

 

 

Friday midnight... Hmmmmm 

 

 

Also guys ignore the met office "whats my weather" forecast.. Stick too the text forecast last week the weather forecast showed 4 degrees at night and it went down to -6 with the met office regional text saying -4.. 

 

With a convective element to Northerlys stuff pops up @ 0hrs..

Edited January 28, 2015 by Surrey

[Downpour]

I think you could be correct as looking at the south east weather forecast on the BBC a little while ago (although it is generalised ) for the southeast , there was no snow on the outlook for Thurs/Fri/sat and Sun,

Indeed. The professionals not all keen for snow in the areas where most people live.

[weathergeek]

Trying to remain positive by what's being said on here and now ignore my apps which all say nowt!!!xx

[Downpour]

Had my eye on it too! Looks good!!! WR picking it up well..

 

Thursday daytime they are some MEATY showers!

 

 

Friday midnight... Hmmmmm 

 

 

Also guys ignore the met office "whats my weather" forecast.. Stick too the text forecast last week the weather forecast showed 4 degrees at night and it went down to -6 with the met office regional text saying -4.. 

 

With a convective element to Northerlys stuff pops up @ 0hrs..

You must be looking at different charts to the ones you posted which show cold rain for most. Granted that is showing snow IMBY but it is so marginal I would be very sceptical!

[JennyJane1]

I was rather surprised to see last night's weather forecast very late as it seemed to show a load of snow falling right here.That rarely happens, also the wind strength looked like if it did happen, it would be a blizzard.The irony of it being that i am wanted in a different region for work when it is meant to be happening, where no snow was forecast on the map.

[Downpour]

Well the MeteoGroup WeatherPro app which is the best on the market and combines all models and updates in real time is showing no snow at all for London throughout the cold spell. That could be wrong, or it could be telling!

No one hopes it is wrong more than me - I have a five year old who is desperate for snow.

[Jo S]

well according to accu weather \im going to get 0.2cm during the day and 0.3cm at night,, on Thursday but then again they predicted rain the other day and it didn't arrive, so again it a sit and what ever comes ,comes.

Oh and it says quote a bit of rain and snow Thursday and spotty showers Friday, well ive never had spotty showers before, 

Edited January 28, 2015 by Jo S

[Hammer]

After about 4pm today, this cold spell starts and looks set for at least 7 days+. Some snow possibilities likely to arise.

Thursday evening heading to early Friday looks of some interest in EURO4 00z output. Let's see how it looks on 06z output.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Guys IGNORE the phone apps, bbc weather... NO human input.. All computer fed.. 

 

The only BBC weather reports I like are the late ones around 11pm when you do actually have a genuine forecaster reading the charts... Not these pretty woman.. 

 

@Downpour.. 

 

Thursday Midday..

 

 

Granted London don't look good haha!! 

 

 

6PM.. 

 

 

I would go 80/20 game on for falling snow

Oh and this is why channel lows are a pain in the ass...     

 

 

Time for plenty of adjustments.. 

[PLANET THANET]

Guys IGNORE the phone apps, bbc weather... NO human input.. All computer fed.. 

 

The only BBC weather reports I like are the late ones around 11pm when you do actually have a genuine forecaster reading the charts... Not these pretty woman.. 

 

@Downpour..

 

 

 

 

 

that is rather a sexist remark from you Surrey!! some of these "pretty women" are trained meteoroligists

Edited January 28, 2015 by PLANET THANET