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Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat


Captain Shortwave

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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

If your taking GFS precipitation totals seriously let alone from 2 days out and the pub run! !! You should expect to be very disapointed.

i think he is merely having a joke, i don't think anyone takes them too seriously, especially if you have been let down so many times by looking at it when it looks ever so good! 

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Location: Godalming

i think he is merely having a joke, i don't think anyone takes them too seriously, especially if you have been let down so many times by looking at it when it looks ever so good! 

 

meh, hope the newbies don't get their hopes up or think gfs can forecast showers properly.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

meh, hope the newbies don't get their hopes up or think gfs can forecast showers properly.

GFS is not so bad with precip in reliable timeframe although it does tend to overdo it.

Vorticity has made a smashing post which you can see here

- https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82366-model-output-discussion-23rd-jan-12z-onwards/page-64#entry3142414

"it becomes evident that showers are more likely to develop over or to the east of the UK than to the north, west or south (assuming equal surface temperatures)." regarding Thursday with icy cold 500 hpa temperatures more so towards the E/SE implying more conducive environment which can kick off snow showers.

Edited by Daniel*
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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Location: Godalming

GFS is not so bad with precip in reliable timeframe although it does tend to overdo it.

Vorticity has made a smashing post which you can see here

- https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82366-model-output-discussion-23rd-jan-12z-onwards/page-64#entry3142414

"it becomes evident that showers are more likely to develop over or to the east of the UK than to the north, west or south (assuming equal surface temperatures)." regarding Thursday with icy cold 500 hpa temperatures more so towards the E/SE implying more conducive environment which can kick off snow showers.

 

Trying not to go off topic but.. frontal normally reasonably accurate within 72h depending on how typical the LP system is, for anything else i wouldn't base a forecast from it. Thanks for the link :) will take a look but my opinion remains the same.

 

Ok have viewed the link, no mention of a GFS bias but does back up my views on my earlier post regarding tomorrow, There will be a few suprises for better or worse.

Edited by Weather Wonder
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Trying not to go off topic but.. frontal normally reasonably accurate within 72h depending on how typical the LP system is, for anything else i wouldn't base a forecast from it. Thanks for the link :) will take a look but my opinion remains the same.

You can post the kitchen sink in here. :D

You're welcome I just wanted to suggest it demonstrates the possibilities I fully agree with you...looking at the fax charts v wintry with snow possibly on the disruptive side falling in a number of places, our region also in the raffle draw, cold spell we're soon to be in is going to be best chance and possibly last chance, so embrace it.

Edited by Daniel*
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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Will be weird watching all the way to the Cheshire gap or Bristol Channel rather than the wash or the Thames! Bring it on.

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Location: Godalming

You can post the kitchen sink in here. :D

You're welcome I just wanted to suggest it demonstrates the possibilities I fully agree with you...looking at the fax charts v wintry with snow possibly on the disruptive side falling in a number of places, our region also in the raffle draw, cold spell we're soon to be in is going to be best chance and possibly last chance, so embrace it.

 

Sorry, couldn't help myself.  :oops:

RL304CW-ELBE-l.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

Some of these streamers could well push right into London.

There is certainly potentiall for temporary accumulations anywhere aligned under the streamers

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

We have a lobe of NVA developing across Western parts during Thursday afternoon/evening so I think our best chance of showers reaching this region will be during the morning with showers tending to fade away/become restricted to Western coastal areas as the afternoon progresses.

 

post-7073-0-24184400-1422404971_thumb.gi

 

EURO4 shows promise for Northern East Anglia, Norfolk, Norwich, etc.. but further South, a few flurries but at this stage not looking like a great deal of shower activity.

 

The EURO4 as good as it is though, probably still wont get the shower predictions correct so just about anywhere at risk from snow showers, just more Northern areas favoured.

 

Tomorrows updates will probably bring more changes. NMM interestingly has the shower focus more into London/N Kent for Thursday

 

post-7073-0-35514200-1422405107_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Some of these streamers could well push right into London.

There is certainly potentiall for temporary accumulations anywhere aligned under the streamers

Thanks for your input CR I see on the NW regional you are getting a hostile reception "get off my lawn" springs to mind. You're safe to post here :good: we do not bite, we're open to all...
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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

I despise channel lows. Give me a Thames Streamer any day. Not being around in the 80's I've grown up with channel lows bringing nothing but rain for South of the M4

You must have had snow in February to March in 2013 from atlantic fronts bumping into cold air. Most of us do although hi remember the fronts stalling somewhat

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

You must have had snow in February to March in 2013 from atlantic fronts bumping into cold air. Most of us do although hi remember the fronts stalling somewhat

Not a whole lot - I was always too far North or too far East

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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄

Updated 28/01/15

Weather for the week ahead.

Things are looking better with even talk of snow for us Thursday . â„â„â„â„â„â„

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b050b17l/weather-for-the-week-ahead-28012015

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Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds

Updated 28/01/15

Weather for the week ahead.

Things are looking better with even talk of snow for us Thursday . â„â„â„â„â„â„

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b050b17l/weather-for-the-week-ahead-28012015

Nice one, you can even smell the snow in the air out there today, seriously you can.

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Posted
  • Location: Poole , Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & T-Storms
  • Location: Poole , Dorset

Latest Ops runs extend the cold spell we are just entering, and the UK heads into the freezer, possible channel low feature cropping up which might be interesting for the SE?

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Posted
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl

Nice one, you can even smell the snow in the air out there today, seriously you can.

When it gets light, I'll look out for field fares (birds) they're always around before a snowy blast from the n/nw. It'll be nailed on if I see any.

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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄

Nice one, you can even smell the snow in the air out there today, seriously you can.

Lol, it's on it's way. To get just a dusting would be great after the last few years. My 3 year old boy is begging me for snow. I think he believes I control the weather, if only ..

â„â„â„â„â„â„â„â„â„

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Posted
  • Location: Sevenoaks, Kent
  • Location: Sevenoaks, Kent

Updated 28/01/15

Weather for the week ahead.

Things are looking better with even talk of snow for us Thursday . â„â„â„â„â„â„

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b050b17l/weather-for-the-week-ahead-28012015

After watching that forecast, I cannot see London, Kent , Surrey etc receiving any snow at all. I know it's potentially subject to change, but at the moment I feel we may be as disappointed as we were last week.

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

Getting blustery here and it has started to rain, it's 10.4c, the mildest part of the day. By 4.00pm it should be 6c. As for snow, well I can't smell it, all I can smell is bacon cooking lol. But I hope you are right Shotski :) Need some disturbances in the eventual northerly flow to get snow here, otherwise it will just be cold and sunny. Snow from a NW is pretty rare here too. I wonder what the chances are of a NE or easterly eventually developing, :unknw:  that would increase our chances of snow markedly.

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Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham

MOD thread likes the 00z.     :cold:      some sort of channel low still popping up on some nodels in various guizes. Longevity of the cold spell is enhanced / backed up ??

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Morning,

Well our channel low is showing on the charts still only medium range so will wait on any comments.

Currently we begin the cold spell today.. The front bringing rain to all currently will slip further south.

The temperature will plummet like a stone going from +11 to about 0- -1 tonight... So touch of frost possible in places.

Snow showers may feed into the region early tomorrow morning and into the afternoon probs won't settle though.

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